Tuesday, January 6, 2026  3:30 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Worst Driving Conditions in Central Minnesota This Morning

Only Light Sleet and Ice in Southern Minnesota Overnight...

The storm pushed across Minnesota yesterday (see counterclockwise rotation moving through Minnesota on the College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). This system slowly began to tap more moisture, so the intensity of the radar echoes increased as the precipitation moved across the eastern half of Minnesota yesterday during the afternoon . This produced a combination of light snow yesterday afternoon and freezing drizzle overnight (see NWS: last 72 hours of Duluth observations). The one snow report after the afternoon snow showed 2.3 inches of Two Harbors (all others on the NWS Minnesota snow accumulation map were taken early yesterday morning).

...But Icing Worst on Central Minnesota Roads, Making a Tricky Morning Commute

The radar echoes showed that the band of freezing rain and sleet moved through Minnesota, mainly from Hwy. 12 southward overnight (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). However, the accumulation of precipitation was quite light with few stations having measurable precipitation. However, there is dense fog on the northern and western flanks of the radar echoes, and that dense fog has dropped freezing drizzle. The worst road conditions are right now in the St. Cloud area between Royalton and Pierz to the north, Richmond, Kimball, and Dassel to the west, Princeton, Becker, and Big Lake to the east, and Litchfield and Montrose to the south (see MnDOT Minnesota road conditions). At this point, the ice includes Hwy. 23 and I-94 in this area. Temperatures are going to remain below freezing (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) through the morning rush as the fog will remain thick. Road crews will be working, but expect icy spots on secondary roads for the morning commute, as well as likely ice on untreated surfaces like sidewalks, driveways, and parking lots.

The National Weather Service has a winter weather advisory (purple) and a dense fog advisory (gray) covering much of Minnesota from the Minnesota River northward, but icing is possible within both advisory areas. Again, the worst conditions are in central Minnesota right now. These advisories are in effect until noon, so expect some travel problems even after the morning rush hour.

Road conditions could be helped by thinning clouds this afternoon. Temperatures may creep above freezing.

Full-Fledged Thaw Tomorrow and Thursday

Our thaw will continue through Thursday and possibly on Friday. High temperatures will climb into the middle to upper 30's tomorrow and Thursday with a chance for sun each afternoon. Winds will be light, so there will be a chance for fog late at night and through the morning rush hour. Lows will be in the teens to near 20.

Major Change in Late Week Storm Puts Less of a Snow Threat in Minnesota (But Do I Trust It?)

There has been a drastic change in the forecast for the Friday-Saturday potential storm. The previous forecasts had a major storm develop over the Great Lakes because a west coast storm moving through the Rockies would intensify as a low in the northern storm track would work together with the southern stream as the storms moved into the Great Lakes. During the past 24 hours, the computers have kept the two potential lows apart until at least Saturday night. That would mean that a really strong storm would not develop until the storm was too far to our east to have a major effect in Minnesota. I am not sure that I trust the new scenario, given such a radical change; note that the Day 4 panel of the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather outlook still has the smallest category for shovelable snow across southeastern Minnesota and north central Iowa (compare with the higher probabilities to our east on Day 5). So, I have backed down to only a small chance for light snow or flurries on Friday night and Saturday, but my confidence level in that forecast is still only 3 of 10.

Beginning with the late week storm, we will resume a roller coaster of temperatures, getting cooler over the weekend with Sunday's high only in the 20's. There could be a quick change to milder weather next Monday. After that, I can't be sure at all whether we will be mild or cold.

2025 Summary Being Worked on But Still Not Ready

If the weather would quiet down, I would take a day or two off from forecasting to complete the December 2025 and Annual St. Cloud weather summary.

December 2025 finished with two days milder than average (yesterday not shown yet on the NWS St. Cloud December 2025 high/low temperature table), mainly since yesterday began with above freezing temperatures during the early morning hours (see 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest), but it won't be enough to prevent St. Cloud's second colder than average month of the past 32 months since April 2023.

There is a revised December snowfall total of 16.3 inches, thanks to the late month small accumulations. That is still 15th highest December total on record. For the season, St. Cloud has seen 24.3 inches, which is the 20th highest Sept-Dec snowfall in St. Cloud records. While December was only the 2nd of the past 32 months with a colder than average temperature, 2025 still ended up well above normal. My December 2025 and Annual Weather Summary will note how much of the extreme heat ended up being in March, May, and October. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources climatology division mostly rated warm-season weather in the Top 5 Minnesota Weather Events of 2025. While severe weather was limited, the storms that produced major wind damage in Bemidji were rated the #1 event. #2 was the repeated episodes of smoke from Canadian wildfires. Numbers 3 and 4 were heat, both early (May) and late (October).

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Tuesday 1/6/2026: Some early fog and perhaps some spotty freezing drizzle, then partly sunny and mild. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Clear early with some fog possible late. A shade cooler. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: S 5 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Wednesday 1/7/2026: Some early fog, then partly sunny and even milder. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: S 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear early with some fog possible late. A shade cooler. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: SE 5 MPH evening, light and variable during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Thursday 1/8/2026: Some early low clouds and fog with a slight chance for a shower. Some sun possible during the afternoon. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Thursday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and continued cool. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Friday 1/9/2026: Thickening clouds and not quite as mild. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: N 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Cloudy with a slight chance for a snow shower or flurry. Low: between 13 and 18. Winds: becoming NW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Saturday 1/10/2026: Cloudy, breezy, and colder. Maybe a flurry or snow shower. High: between 20 and 25. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Extended: Roller coaster temperatures Sunday through the middle of next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Tuesday and Tuesday night, 6 Wednesday and Wednesday night, 5 Wednesday, 4 Wednesday night and Thursday, 3 Friday through Saturday.

Yesterday's High: 32°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Tuesday): 27°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 3 AM Tuesday): 0.02 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Tuesday): TBA

Next Update: Wednesday, January 7, 2026 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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