Saturday, November 29, 2025  2:15 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Upping Snowfall Amounts A Bit for Today's Storm

The storm forecast to affect Minnesota and areas to the south and east has pretty much worked out close to what has been forecast (a second storm mostly behaving itself???!!!). We merely had a brief snow flurry yesterday morning, but the clouds have been moving in (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared loop). The main storm is just now emerging into the High Plains of western South Dakota and Nebraska (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). Overnight, the area of steady snow has moved from southern North Dakota and central and eastern South Dakota across southern and west central Minnesota (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). As of midnight, Sioux Falls has picked up 2 inches.

The forecast trend during the past 24 hours has been to edge the storm track a bit further to the north, so it is now forecast to track from eastern Kansas into southern Iowa and then through northern Illinois. On this track, more of the heavier snowfall will get into southern and even parts of central Minnesota. I now think that the area with at least a coating of new snow will reach to Fargo, Brainerd, and Duluth. Ortonville, St. Cloud, Alexandria, and Little Falls will end up with between 2 and 4 inches. The northern edge of the Twin Cities, Willmar, and Hutchinson will get between 3 and 6 inches. Between 3 and 6 inches are likely from the southern Twin Cities area into Redwood Falls, and Marshall. From Pipestone, Mankato, and Wabasha southward will be the heaviest snow with between 4 and 8 inches. Parts of south central and southeastern Minnesota like Albert Lea, Winona, Rochester, and LaCrosse could end up with between 6 and 9 inches. Northern Iowa will have areas approaching a foot of snow. The bulk of the snow will fall in central Minnesota between the pre-dawn hours and mid-afternoon, but it won't taper off until tonight for the Twin Cities and southeastern Minnesota.

Air Travel Impacts: Snow in Chicago and Detroit, Storms Near Dallas

This storm will also disrupt air travel since the bulk of the precipitation is now forecast to be snow in Chicago, developing midday today and continuing through tomorrow morning. Detroit has some snow, but has a better chance of seeing it changeover to rain. The Chicago area isn't far from the changeover line, so a further shift in storm track could reduce the consequences. However, Chicago area airports lead the list of cancelled and delayed flights (see FlightAware.com list of delays).

On the southern flank of this storm, there will be showers and thunderstorms in east Texas today, perhaps pushing into the Gulf of Mexico by tomorrow (see Days 1-2 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). There is a small chance for severe thunderstorms (see NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 1 convective outlook) as well as some potential for isolated flooding (see Day 2 NWS WPC excessive rainfall outlook). Some of these storms may delay flights at Dallas-Ft. Worth Airport.

Quieter and Colder Tomorrow Through Early Next Week

After today, the reinforcing shot of cold air will push in with temperatures slightly colder than they have been over Thanksgiving. High temperatures probably won't get out of the teens Sunday and Monday and will reach about 20 on Tuesday. As long as there are instability clouds and a breeze, lows will remain in the plus teens tonight, but we have a shot at our first low of zero or colder tomorrow night. The winds won't be nearly as strong as they were on Wednesday and Thursday, which is good news since parts of central and southern Minnesota will have a snow pack deep enough to blow over the ditches and onto roads.

There will be a shorter period of lake effect snow along the south shore of Lake Superior from late today into tomorrow morning. That's because the winds will blow more from the north (shorter path over the lake) and won't be as strong as Wednesday. There is the potential for between 1 and 6 inches in parts of northern Wisconsin, where the National Weather Service has a winter weather advisory.

We will have a shot at a 20 degree high on Wednesday, but there will be a reinforcing front coming through late Tuesday night, so Thursday has more potential for colder than average temperatures. The picture for the weekend is unclear about the timing and strength of another reinforcing cold front, which will have some next the weekend or early the following week.

Links to Ground and Air Travel Conditions

I will be on duty through the weekend, since the busy travel season continues. As usual, I will have the following link of ground and air travel links all week.

• Ground Travel
  • Minnesota
  • Surrounding States
    • Iowa
    • North Dakota
    • South Dakota
    • Nebraska
    • Wisconsin
    • Michigan
  • Surrounding Provinces
    • Manitoba
    • Ontario
• Air Travel
  • Flight Aware Misery Map
  • Flight Aware Delays and Cancellations

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Saturday 11/29/2025: A good chance of steady snow, especially during the morning through early afternoon, breezy and cold again. Between 2 and 4 inches of new snow is possible late Friday night through Saturday afternoon. High: between 22 and 27. Winds: NE-N 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 70%.

Saturday Night: Cloudy through the evening with perhaps a few flurries. Partial clearing is possible during the early morning hours. Breezy, and turning colder, with some areas of low visibility in blowing snow. Low: between 12 and 18. Winds: NW 8-18 MPH through midnight, 8-15 MPH late at night. Wind chill: between 0 and +10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Sunday 11/30/2025: Sunny in the morning, mixed clouds and sun midday and afternoon. A biting breeze and colder. High: between 15 and 20. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -10 and +10 during the morning, between 0 and +15 during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Sunday Night: Clear early, partly clear late, light winds, and even colder. Low: near zero evening, rising into plus territory late at night. Winds: light NW evening, SW 5 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Monday 12/1/2025: Partly sunny during the morning, lots of middle and high clouds during the afternoon, and continued January-like cold. High: between 15 and 20. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -15 and 0 during the morning, between 0 and +15 during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, light winds, and not as cold. Low: between +5 and +10. Winds: SW 5 MPH. Wind chill between -5 and 0. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Tuesday 12/2/2025: Becoming cloudy and not quite as cold. Perhaps a stray snow flurry. High: between 18 and 24. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: between -10 and +10 during the morning, in the teens during the afternoon.Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with a chance for light snow or flurries. Turning breezy late at night. Temperatures holding in the upper teens to lower 20's. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH evening, shifting to N 8-15 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Wednesday 12/3/2025: Mixed clouds and some sunny breaks with a few flurries possible. Breezy and turning colder during the afternoon. High: between 20 and 25, falling into the teens during the afternoon. Winds: N 10-20 MPH. Wind chill: falling to near zero during the afternoon.Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Colder than average temperatures perhaps rising to near average by late next week??

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 6 Saturday and Saturday night, 7 Sunday, 6 Sunday night, 5 Monday through Tuesday, 3 Tuesday night through Thursday.

Yesterday's High: 23°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Saturday): 17°F;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Saturday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Saturday): Trace

Next Update: Sunday, November 30, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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