St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Thursday, March 12, 2026 3:20 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Still a Pair of Storms Left With Major Southern Minnesota Snow Potential Sat-Sun

Coming Storm Attractions

We will continue near the major storm track during this rest of this week and into early next week with two prominent storms expected. The next one, due tonight and tomorrow, seems to pose the major snow threat clearly in northern, especially northeastern Minnesota, while the second one looks to be stronger and slower (now Saturday night through Sunday night) with heavier snow potential (foot plus?) in the area getting hit the hardest (most confident about the Minnesota River Valley and southern Minnesota?)

Tonight's storm, now creating deep clouds over southern Alberta and Saskatchewan (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop), will begin moving clouds into Minnesota as today moves on. Precipitation will develop across Minnesota this afternoon. From St. Cloud southward, enough mild air will push in to likely keep our precipitation to rain showers (maybe even a central or southern Minnesota thunderstorm). By the time enough colder air pushes in to turn the precipitation to snow, it will likely be tapering off.

A bit to our north, places like Brainerd, Little Falls, and Park Rapids will see rain showers turning to snow showers, but there is still a question whether ground temperatures will fall quickly enough to allow any accumulation. However, a swath of northern and especially northeastern Minnesota will see the changeover to snow and ground temperatures drop quickly enough to allow another plowable snowfall. International Falls could see between 2 and 5 inches of snow, while the North Shore and the Boundary Waters could see between 6 and 9 inches of snow (set time tab to 18 UTC, 1 PM, Fri. on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). The National Weather Service has a winter storm watch in effect for the area from the Red River Valley to Park Rapids and Detroit Lakes and a winter storm warning in north central and northeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.

As noted yesterday, all of Minnesota will feel the very strong winds on the back side of this storm. In the area of heavy snow, the National Weather Service has a blizzard warning along the Lake Superior North Shore. The rest of us will see winds gust to 40 MPH by this afternoon and between 50 and 60 MPH tonight into tomorrow morning. That's strong enough to down some branches and perhaps a few power lines, despite the lack of snowfall. The National Weather Service has a high wind warning in effect in most of central and southern Minnesota not expecting the snowfall (gold area on the NWS Twin Cities watch-warning map). 

You can track the latest winds and wind gusts on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up and the latest road conditions (difficult travel likely from late afternoon through tomorrow in north central and northeastern Minnesota) on the MnDOT Minnesota road reports. 

Sat-Sun Nt Storm Looks Even Stronger, Still Focused on Southern Minnesota???

The Saturday-Monday storm looks to be a major snowstorm, not just in parts of Minnesota, but also in Wisconsin and Michigan (see Days 3-5 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast and Days 4-5 of the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather outlook) with a swath of ice just to the south of the heavy snow. The forecast trend has been to make the storm stronger and stall it out over the Ohio Valley early next week, giving the possibility for a wide spread foot-plus of snow.

For Minnesota, the stronger storm trend means a delay in the onset of snow, so it now appears that the heaviest snow will fall from Saturday night through much of Sunday and perhaps into Sunday night. A stronger storm also means blizzard conditions, not only during the period of heavy snow, but continuing after the snow lets up.

Still Uncertain Amounts, Especially in Parts of Central Minnesota

The question remains who gets the heaviest snow. The computer trends conflict in that the European forecast is trending northward and the US forecast is trending southward. For now, they overlap, especially over southern Minnesota through the Minnesota River Valley (best chance for heavy snow) with some chance for the heavy snow over parts of the Twin Cities and even Willmar (area of biggest uncertainty). Most of the forecasts have St. Cloud with a period of continuous snow, most likely during Saturday evening and perhaps into the Sunday early morning hours, but with only a similar accumulation to what we had Tuesday night. Still, a wobble of the storm track northward would put St. Cloud in the serious snow and a wobble to the south could leave St. Cloud with flurries.

Since the forecasts still are changing from one computer run to another, and will likely continue to do so since the initial storm is one of the storms in the complex from eastern Alaska into the northeastern Pacific and extreme northern British Columbia (see counterclockwise rotation on the Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), it is only partly within the North America upper air network. The forecast also has that system interacting with a system over Nunavut, also making the forecast more prone to changing. Still, I would use this information as incentive to change any travel plans you have for Sunday and Monday in northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, much of Wisconsin and Michigan. I would not travel during the middle of this potential blizzard and the after effects of blowing snow will likely last for at least a day after the snow lets up.

After the system strengthens and heads for Ontario, Minnesota will remain quite windy and get the coldest air we have been since late February (see 30-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). My current forecast only favors a chance for measurable snowfall through part of Sunday morning (although I wouldn't be surprised to see the snow to happen later; often, strong storms move more slowly than forecast), but temperatures will likely hold on Sunday in the middle 20's or even fall towards 20 as the afternoon wears on. By Monday morning, temperatures will fall back into the plus single digits and only recover to the teens during the afternoon.

Winter Temperature Relapse Behind Sunday Storm

From Sunday through Monday, we will have winds becoming more northwest and increasing to 20-35 MPH with gusts over 50 MPH on Sunday, and still gusting over 40 MPH part of Sunday night and Monday morning. The strong winds will drop wind chills to between -20 and -5 for part of Monday morning, approaching the edge of the serious range. 

The winds look to ease up a bit finally on Tuesday, but we should still have highs in the teens after a potential sub-zero morning low. 

Temperatures Moderate (Uncertain How Quickly) Late Next Week

There still will be a moderating trend during the second half of next week. However, the timing (how quickly we will get into the milder air; how quickly the snow, to our south (??) will melt) is still in question. I would expect temperatures to get back to at least average by next Thursday. 

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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