Monday, March 16, 2026 4:00 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

"You Should Have Known!"

Quick Storm-Related Links

Any morning when I was in graduate school that I blew the forecast, the long time manager of the University at Albany (NY) weather lab would greet me with the above title statement. That echo is bouncing around my brain this morning in the aftermath of yesterday's storm.

  1. Thunderstorms (actually thunder-snow and thunder-ice) shut off the moisture supply to the main snow band in central and east central Minnesota
    1. See the line of thunderstorms develop over Iowa and move across extreme southern and southeastern Minnesota yesterday morning (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). That's where the 18 inch plus snow totals fell (see NWS Twin Cities local snowfall reports)
    2. See the line of radar echoes thin out over central Minnesota during the early morning hours. That hole remained across eastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin.
    3. I saw the start of this around 3 AM and should have cut down on the snow accumulation forecast then (despite the problems I had with the editing program for this web site).
  2. The early forecasts about a 'bomb cyclone' (central pressure drops at least 24 mb, about three-quarters of an inch, in 24 mb) were wrong.
    1. Storms in the northern storm track were forecast to work with the southern storm track.
    2. There are still two separate circulation centers this morning, one over Minnesota and the other over Wisconsin (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop).
  3. A 'typical' fairly strong Minnesota snowstorm produces a band of 6-10 inch snowfalls with a few higher amounts (only a few southern Twin Cities suburbs saw a foot-plus).
    1. Usually the storm has to stall to allow wide spread foot or two-foot snowfall amounts (like during the Halloween blizzard of 1991 or the Hovland snow last month). In this case, areas that got thunder-snow had the heaviest snowfall totals
    2. This storm wasn't forecast to stall (more recent computer runs had it even moving a bit faster).
    3. The US computer forecast is notorious for forecasting too much precipitation from winter storms (even if it agrees with other computer forecasts). What most meteorologists ended up putting out was essentially an AI forecast. The results were OY!

Hopefully, I will learn these lessons and apply them better in the future.

The upcoming forecast is for the wind to continue today with mid-February cold (20-25 degrees colder than the mid-March average, but highs in the teens to near 20 with a near zero low tonight). The warm-up begins Wednesday, although we might see a light snowfall on Tuesday night. Then how warm we get late this week depends on how quickly the heavier snow to our south melts.

I'm stopping here, since the computer program I use to enter this discussion is having issues again..

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level (high): "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Pre-Dawn Monday: Mostly clear, still blustery, and much colder. Serious wind chill by early morning. Low: between 3 and 8. Winds: NW 15-30 MPH with gusts of 35-40 MPH. Wind chill: between -22 and 10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 3/16/2026: Mixed clouds and sun with perhaps a stray snow flake, still blustery, and back to mid-winter chill. High: between 15 and 20. Winds: NW 15-30 MPH with gusts of 35-40 MPH. Wind chill: between -22 and 10 during the morning, between -10 and 0 during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%. 

Monday Night: Clearing with finally diminishing wind and February-like. Some high clouds late at night. Low: between 0 and 5. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH evening, NW 5 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Confidence Level (medium): "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head"  

Tuesday 3/17/2026: Increasing clouds with a chance of flurries or light snow during the middle and late afternoon. Less windy and not quite as cold. High: between 18 and 23. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH during the morning, SE 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10% during the morning, 50% during the afternoon. 

Tuesday Night: Maybe some evening light snow or flurries with total snowfall Tuesday afternoon and evening between a dusting and 2 inches, then cloudy with perhaps some fog during the early morning hours. Not as cold. Evening temperatures in the 20's, falling back to between 15 and 20 late. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH evening, SW 5 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 50% evening, 20% late at night.

Wednesday 3/18/2026: Morning low clouds and fog, maybe a little afternoon sun. More seasonable temperatures. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%. 

Wednesday Night: Cloudy with light winds and mild. Areas of dense fog possible during the early morning hours. Low: between 25 and 30. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%. 

Confidence Level (low): "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"   

Thursday 3/19/2026: Some morning low clouds and fog, some midday and afternoon sun. Seasonably mild temperatures. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%. 

Thursday Night: Light winds and mild again with areas of dense fog possible during the early morning hours. Low: between 28 and 33. Winds: NW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%. 

Friday 3/20/2026: Some morning low clouds and fog, some midday and afternoon sun. Uncertain how mild we will be. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%. 

Extended: Very warm Saturday (50's or 60's???), then cooling back to seasonable temperatures Sunday???

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Monday and Monday night, 5 Tuesday through Wednesday, 4 Wednesday night, 3 Thursday and Thursday night, 1 Friday.     

Yesterday's High: 30°F; Overnight Low: 4°F; Top Wind Gust (through 2 AM Monday): 41 MPH at 11:33 AM Sunday

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 4 AM Monday): 0.07 inch (storm total: 0.39 inch); SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 5 AM Sunday): 5.9 inches snow/0.39 inch melted; Coldest Wind Chill: -13°F at 4 AM

March 16 Historic Data
Temperature Category High Low

Average Temperatures

 40°F 22°F

Record Temperatures

 76°F (2012) 38°F (1966)
11°F (1900) -11°F (1900)

Next Update: Tuesday, March 17, 2026 6 AM

Links

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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