St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

St. Cloud Now More Than 7 Inches Short Since August 2025

This week's US Drought Monitor, with precipitation data through Tuesday (see growth in yellow over the past week), reflects how dry Minnesota (yellow) has been during July (see NWS Water Prediction Services Minnesota departure from normal map, setting the date to yesterday and time period to last 30 days). There are pockets of above average rain in central Minnesota (green and blue) and the flooding rain in southeastern Minnesota (purple). The St. Cloud Sky Central Airport picked up 2.14 inches mostly during the first half of the month. That's now more than half an inch behind for the month, pushing the August through July shortfall to 7.10 inches (19.42 inches actual, 26.52 inches average). For now, that is the 10th driest August through July precipitation total in St. Cloud records.

Biggest Effect Thus Far: Low Mississippi River Levels

That's consistent with the brown spots showing up in area lawns that don't have sprinkles. But, the biggest problem is the low streamflow. The Mississippi River in St. Cloud is only 3 feet above the lowest streamflow (within 10% lowest on record; red locator on the Minnesota DNR streamflow map) (also brown area when you click on the green box near St. Cloud on the NWS National Water Prediction Center river stages map). Since the Mississippi River drains from the driest parts of Minnesota (darkest shade in north central Minnesota on the US Drought Monitor, its levels are lower than the Sauk River 

However, the absence of rain throughout the area in the last 2 weeks, plus the intense heat will cause more problems, as ground water has to be tapped. 

Best Rain Chances Tonight, Possibly Monday (Best Chance N MN)

We will have our best rain chances both as the extreme heat pushes in, mostly tonight, and as cooler air tries to move in, sometime early next week. The best chance for storms today through tonight will be in northern Minnesota (see Days 1-2 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). A few of the storms could produce large hail (see NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 1 convective outlook) with a smaller chance for an isolated tornado or damaging winds. A few of these storms could get into central Minnesota, but I am keeping the storm chances at 1 in 3. 

The storm threat for next week will come when a cold front pushes and likely hangs up somewhere in Minnesota. The computer forecasts widely disagree about when the best chance will be, with some tendency to hold Minnesota in the extreme heat in a couple of forecasts. So, I am holding highs in the 90's through Monday and have no better than a 1 in 3 chance for rain on Monday (see Days 3-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

90's Likely Sat-Mon, But Some Question About How Hot, How Humid

We have another hot spell coming, beginning tomorrow and continuing at least through Monday (see red areas on NWS Heat Risk forecast). Over the weekend, highs will climb back to the 90's. Depending on how humid we get (some computer forecasts have dew points climbing to near or above 70, but I am favoring dew points merely in the uncomfortable lower 60's), upper 90's or near 100 degree temperatures may be possible. 100's are likely at least in central South Dakota. Monday has been added to the weekend days in the latest forecasts. We are likely to see heat advisories with a smaller chance of extreme heat warnings. There is an extreme heat watch for the Minnesota River Valley and other parts of central Minnesota between Saturday morning and Sunday evening. I am still not sure how the central Minnesota temperature (has tended to be forecast too hot in previous hot spells) or dew point will be, but there's a good chance at least a heat advisory.

Threat of More Wildfires, No Immediate Air Quality Issues

That will also increase the fire danger. At this point, the air quality is forecast to be no worse than moderate through the weekend, but that could get worse, especially if the heat lasts into normal commuting traffic on Monday.