St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

The thunderstorm set-up this week in the Plains still appears to be on track. However, the latest computer information seems to favor the bulk of the storms a bit to the south of central Minnesota (see Days 1-3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) with mainly southern Minnesota and northern Iowa outlined for both the rain and the potential severe weather. The rain outlook towards the weekend is more uncertain, but there may be a chance for some storms in central Minnesota on Saturday (see Days 4-5 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Very Light Showers Producing Little Rain at Ground Moving Through This Morning

Overnight, there have been some radar echoes (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) moving from the eastern Dakotas to central Minnesota, but very little rain has been produced at the ground (see lack of red dots during the last few hours of NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Stronger thunderstorms either moved from Illinois eastward or have been widely scattered in the western Dakotas and Nebraska (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared red satellite loop). So, we will probably get through the morning with leftover clouds, uncomfortable humidity, and perhaps a few sprinkles. 

Not as Good as Chance for Major Rain Tonight into Tomorrow

The major change in the forecast is that the heaviest thunderstorms are now expected to move from the western Dakotas this evening into mainly Iowa and a small piece of southern Minnesota tomorrow (see Day 2 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). There may still be a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in northern and central Minnesota, but that's about it.

Drier and Cooler Air From Tomorrow Afternoon into Friday (Smoke Aloft?)

As the extreme heat and humidity sinks southward from Wednesday through the weekend (see NWS Heat Risk Forecast), air from the eastern slopes of the US Northern Rockies and the southern Canadian Rockies will push into Minnesota, beginning tomorrow afternoon. That should relieve dew points from the uncomfortable 60's right now (see UCAR hourly dew point map) to the 50's and 40's seen near the Montana-Canada border. The drier air should last all of Thursday and the first half of Friday. The one question is whether some low-level smoke from the active fires from British Columbia through Oregon (see EPA fire and smoke map) makes it into Minnesota. We will probably continue the dense smoke at middle levels (see gray areas on the EPA fire and smoke map), so any sunshine will be hazy.

Friday Night Has Storm Potential, But Forecast is Uncertain

While the intense heat is clearly forecast to be limited to Missouri, Oklahoma, and points south by the weekend (see NWS Heat Risk Forecast), the uncertainty about where the storm track on the edge of the heat will be may allow some showers and thunderstorms back into Minnesota. The next potential chance looks decent for Friday night and Saturday right now (see Days 4-5 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). Even though the trend in the heavy rain area is southward through Friday (see Days 2-4 of the NWS WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook), note that Minnesota is included in a large area with small confidence on Day 5.

Cooler Air Will Bring Occasional 70's Highs (Thursday, Saturday)

Temperature-wise, we will be in the 80's again today and tomorrow with the persistent humidity through at least midday tomorrow. Then, highs will be back in the upper 70's to near 80 with comfortable humidity on Thursday. We could have a Friday morning low well down in the 50's with even 40's in some central Minnesota cool spots. Then, highs will return to the middle 80's on Friday. 

Saturday could be cooler if we have persistent clouds (highs in the 70's). Again, drier air will push into Minnesota for Saturday and a chunk of Sunday.

Timing of Storms Very Uncertain From Friday Night into Next Week

From Sunday on, we will be back to an uncertain chance for showers and thunderstorms from day to day. Nothing looks like a big enough dousing to relieve the very dry conditions in northern and central Minnesota, but the forecast is quite shaky. I have no guess on temperatures.