St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Wednesday, March 11, 2026 2:20 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Parade of Storms May Be Most Memorable For Thu Nt-Fri Wind

Sorry for yesterday's outages; computer issues again. 

Storm-o-topia Created Light Snow Overnight

We had only a partial coating of the very light snow yesterday morning (more to the west; see current version of NWS Duluth snowfall reports), but the second system in this week's parade of storms pushed into Montana by late yesterday (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). Ahead of it, a band of snow pushed into central and southern Minnesota yesterday afternoon and has continued overnight (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). That band will taper off in central Minnesota during the early morning hours, leaving a coating of new snowfall (watch the NWS Twin Cities snowfall reports after 7 AM). Expect some snow covered roads for the morning commute (see MnDOT Minnesota road reports) with between 2 and 4 inches in much of central and east central Minnesota.

It won't last long, since skies are already clear (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) in North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota (see open sky circles on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). So, daytime temperatures will climb back above freezing. 

Thursday-Friday Storm Next Up....

We will have a longer lull between the overnight snow and the next system, now in the far northeastern Pacific (see counterclockwise rotation on the Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). That system will be stronger than the early Tuesday and Tuesday night systems, but is now forecast to track a bit further to the north than earlier in the week. So, central and southern Minnesota will only see some scattered showers from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. It may be cold enough aloft for the precipitation to fall either as light rain or light snow in central Minnesota, but ground temperatures are likely to be in the upper 30's, so I expect any snow to melt on contact with the ground.

...With Major Snow Potential in Far Northern Minnesota...

The best chance for accumulating snow will be limited to the northern third of Minnesota where between 4 and 8 inches is likely (set time tab to 18 UTC, 1 PM CDT, Fri. on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). 

Biggest Weather Issue: Very Strong Winds Thu Nt-Fri

That leaves the potential extreme wind as the most significant weather threat from the Thursday storm system. This system will quickly intensify as it races just north of the Canadian border, cranking up the winds, especially on Thursday night and Friday. There will be steady wind speeds of 25-40 MPH with potential gusts approaching 60 MPH. That's after Thursday's wind of 20-30 MPH with gusts over 45 MPH. I would expect a high wind warning over much of Minnesota for Thursday night and Friday. The National Weather Service already has a high wind watch in southwestern Minnesota and westward.

Sat-Sun Storm Has the Highest Snow Potential......For Southern (?) and Central Minnesota (?????) Snow

Then, there is the Saturday-Sunday storm. That system has the most potential to produce a band of heavy snow (6 inches plus) with some ice on its southern edge. The heaviest precipitation will begin Saturday afternoon and continue through Sunday early morning. However, there remains a gap between the projected snowfall. The main US forecast model keeps nearly all of the heavy snow in southern Minnesota, perhaps even to the south of the Twin Cities, with a possibility of ice along the I-90 corridor in southern Minnesota. And that computer forecast has been pushing the snow band southward from run to run. On the other hand, the European forecast has kept the heaviest snow across the Minnesota River Valley and the Twin Cities with St. Cloud possibly within the northern edge of the main snow band. The NWS WPC Days 5-6 of the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather outlook shows a smear between the two forecasts, before the US forecast edged the forecast further to the south overnight.

For now, I would say the Minnesota River Valley is the most likely to see the significant snowfall with the Twin Cities uncertain. I have the potential for a light snow accumulation in St. Cloud, but this is really a shaky forecast right now.

The Saturday and Sunday system will also be strong, causing big visibility problems in falling and blowing snow within the heaviest snow band. Still, the wind gusts will be closer to 50 MPH, so it won't be as windy in central Minnesota as during Thursday night and Friday. 

Cold Returns Sunday into Tuesday

After the last storm goes by Sunday, we will sample a piece of the colder air over the northern Canadian Prairie Provinces, where yesterday's highs (see yesterday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) were in the plus single digits (not the sub-zero stuff seen in Nunavut). That means our high temperatures will likely be only in the 20's on Sunday and might have trouble topping 20 on Monday, if we have significant snow cover. We could see temperatures in the plus single digits early Monday morning, perhaps below zero if we get the deep snow cover.

However, there will be a moderating trend during the second half of the week. It could get really mild sometime during next week's Thursday-Saturday period. It's also too early to guess whether there will be more snowfall during the middle week transition to milder weather.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"   

Wednesday 3/11/2026: Becoming mostly sunny, windy through the morning, and seasonably cold. High: between 37 and 42. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts during the morning, 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Clear, light winds, and a bit colder. Low: between 18 and 23. Winds: NW 5 MPH evening, SE 5 MPH early morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%. 

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head" 

Thursday 3/12/2026: Clouding up with a chance for afternoon light rain or snow showers. Any snow will melt on contact with the ground. Turning blustery and still seasonably cool. High: between 37 and 42. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH through midday, becoming S 20-30 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20% during the morning, 50% during the afternoon. 

Thursday Night: Cloudy with perhaps a lingering rain or snow shower early evening. Extremely blustery and colder with a slight chance for a flurry late at night. Low: between 23 and 28. Winds: SW 10-25 MPH evening, shifting to NW 25-40 MPH with gusts over 55 MPH early morning. Wind chill: in the plus single digits. Chance of measurable precipitation: 50% evening, 10% late at night.

Friday 3/13/2026: Becoming sunny, blustery, and colder. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: NW 25-40 MPH with gusts over 55 MPH through midday, 20-30 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%. 

Friday Night: Clear with diminishing evening wind, some clouds late at night. Still fairly cold. Low: between 20 and 25. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH early evening, calm near midnight, SE 5 MPH early morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"    

Saturday 3/14/2026: Thickening clouds with a chance for light snow or flurries during the afternoon. Perhaps a coating of snow by evening. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH during the morning, E 5-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10% morning, 30% during the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Cloudy with a chance of light snow or flurries, windy, and colder. Between a dusting and 2 inches are possible by morning. Low: between 23 and 28. Winds: NE 10-25 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Sunday 3/15/2026: Cloudy with perhaps a morning flurry, some sun possible during the afternoon, windy, and colder. Temperatures holding in the middle 20's. Winds: NE 10-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW for the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%. 

Extended: Continued colder than average through Monday (lows in the plus single digits, highs in the 20's)??? Turning milder for the second half of next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Wednesday, 7 Wednesday night, 5 Thursday through Friday, 4 Friday night, 2 Saturday and Saturday night, 3 Sunday and Monday.    

Yesterday's High: 35°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Wednesday): 26°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): 0.15 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): TBA

Next Update: Tuesday, March 10, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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