St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

90's in West Central Minnesota, Uncomfortable Dew Points Elsewhere Monday

Both temperatures and dew points soared in Minnesota yesterday. The hottest readings, up to 95 degrees at Appleton, were in west central Minnesota (limited to west central Minnesota; set time to 21Z-23Z, 4-6 PM CDT, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). It felt uncomfortably humid as dew points broke into the lower 60's (brown on the UCAR hourly dew point map), but areas with the additional moisture didn't get as hot as west central Minnesota, since the extra water in the air absorbs some of the sun's heat before it gets to the ground. St. Cloud equaled its warmest high temperature of the season so far (87 degrees, tying that 87 degree high from April 22).

Another Very Warm and Sticky Day Coming

Today will have a better chance to be a hot and at least Minnesota-level high humidity day (you can monitor the Heat Index this afternoon (listed for 88 degrees and higher on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). How hot we get will depend on any leftover clouds from the early morning storms in southern Minnesota (see College of DuPage clean infrared satellite loop) breaking up. With full sunshine, there will be a chance for more highs in the 90's than we had yesterday  In the most humid air, the chance for 90's will be a bit smaller since the extra moisture takes out some of the incoming sunshine on the way through. There still might be a slight chance at St. Cloud's May 26 record warm high of 95, set in 2018.

Best Chance for Thunderstorms for Upcoming 7 Days This PM into Evening

Our best chance for showers and thunderstorms over the next week will be this afternoon and this evening. The only weather system that is forecast to keep moving is the low pressure system over southern Hudson Bay (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor satellite loop). That north central Canada low will follow the path of the northern Ontario low, moving into Quebec and stalling there through late this week. That will pull the front at the northern edge of the really hot temperatures in North Dakota and Minnesota (see 4 PM CDT Monday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) into Minnesota by tomorrow morning. Given the pocket of uncomfortable dew points in the lower 60's, there will be enough available moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms from late this afternoon through the overnight hours. I still have a 50-50 chance for storms in my forecast late today into tonight. 

However, being at the southwestern edge of the front means there won't be strong winds aloft, so the risk of severe thunderstorms will be small (rated category 1 of 5 by the NWS Storm Prediction Center). There could be some isolated strong wind gusts and a slight chance of hail large enough to damage ground structures on top of any crops.

The chance for recurring thunderstorms is the highest in southeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin, so that's the area with an outlook for more than a quarter-inch of rain (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). In the rest of Minnesota, there will be a chance for isolated heavy rainfall amounts since the steering winds won't be that strong.

Still Warm and Humid Tomorrow, But Slow Cooling and Drying Trend Through Friday 

That 'back-door cold front' (named by meteorologists since it will be edging northeast to southwest, different than the usual west-to-east movement) will eventually push the 60-degree dew points into Iowa and Nebraska, so Minnesota will have a slow drying trend from tomorrow on. The front will remain fairly close to Minnesota over the next couple of days, producing some chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in southern Minnesota tomorrow (see Day 2 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), but our chance will be only 1 in 5. Beyond that, I don't see any decent rainfall chances all the way into early next week (see Days 3-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Our dew points will remain near 60 degrees tomorrow, but fall back into the middle 50's by tomorrow night, allowing more comfortable sleeping weather for the second half of the work week. 

Highs will still be in the middle 80's tomorrow, but fall back to near 80 or even the upper 70's Thursday and Friday.

Will Weekend Be A Shade Cooler and Drier?

The weekend is a bit more uncertain. Weather systems will generally be stalled, but the computer forecasts have another northwest-to-southeast moving low pushing from central Canada into Quebec. At this point, the US computer forecast has the southwestern flank of its cold front pushing through Minnesota, which would set us much of the state for cooler (highs in the 70's) and drier (dew points in the lower 50's, perhaps the 40's) weather for the weekend. But, the European forecast has that front stalling before it gets into much of Minnesota. So, I am not sure how warm or how humid we will be.

That front might have a chance to develop a few scattered thunderstorms if it gets to us. Otherwise, we won't see a good chance for rain until the next Pacific storm, now south of Alaska (see Pacific mid-troposphere water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), gets into the Intermountain West (ver the weekend) and is finally able to move eastward. That rain chance will only come if the storm eventually tracks towards us and removes the stalled high over the Dakotas, Minnesota, and south central Canada and won't happen until the second half of next work week.