St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Will 2027 or Even 2026 Set Global Temperature Records?

We've heard about different parts of the world getting really hot this summer. Europe had several periods of extreme heat, which have likely killed thousands of people, since air conditioning isn't available to many people in northern Europe, and continue to cause huge wildfire problem. The US has seen major heat waves at times, as early as March, and more widespread during June and July. But, how are we doing worldwide, especially because of all the El Nino talk, an unusually warm  area of ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. That feature often produces warmer than average winter temperatures in Minnesota and the Northern Plains. 

And 2024 and 2025 ended up having the warmest global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution, during and just after the last El Nino event. So, where are global temperatures now and how will the El Nino affect them? 

El Nino Under Way

Thus far, the El Nino event is just getting ramped up right now with sea surface temperatures over the eastern portion of the tropical Pacific Ocean only about a degree above average (see Figures 1 and 2 of this update). However, this El Nino is forecast to get stronger during the fall and early winter. 

Previous Record Global Temperatures Came After Large Ocean Warming

June global temperatures ended up being the second June warmest on record and July is expected to be hotter. Note, however, from the June global temperatures that a large portion of the oceans are warmer than average. The reason the very warm 2024 global temperatures persisted into 2025 was because the ocean temperatures were so warm after the last El Nino event. Since it takes much longer for water bodies to change their temperatures, the lingering warmth dragged the rest of the Earth along.

News Story: Many Climate Scientists Expect 2027 to be Warmest in Past 150 Years

Given the very warm temperatures already, and the warming expected due to El Nino, 2027 will have a good shot to be one of the hottest years on record, but some climate experts are forecasting that 2026 will surge into the hottest year during the fall (through June, 2026 is running as the third warmest).

How Much of This is Part of the 50 Year Global Warming Trend?

Of course, we can't use very recent global temperature data to either prove or disprove global warming (despite many media stories). However, the recent very warm years are part of the sharp jump in global temperatures since the late 1970's, which has accompanied the huge jump in carbon dioxide, much of which is human-produced. The jump in sea level is also well documented and shows this strong trend.

Still, the warmer global temperatures and sea level rises are consistent with the global predictions. 

Local Forecast: Turning Warmer Tomorrow With Thurs Nt-Fri Main Shower Chance

In the short-term, central Minnesota will continue to have natural air conditioning with this Canadian air mass. Low temperatures will be well down in the 50's with even some 40's in central Minnesota (see latest NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). This afternoon's high temperatures will be in the middle 70's, similar to yesterday afternoon (see yesterday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). The haze due to the smoke aloft may actually ease this afternoon as flow comes from our northwest, which is out of the smoke plume (areas not shaded on the EPA fire and smoke map).

The heat from Oklahoma and Texas into the Southwest (see yesterday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) will build back in the Rockies over the weekend and into the Central Plains early next week (see NWS Heat Risk Forecast). However, Minnesota will remain near the series of low pressure systems moving through western Canada (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop), so we will be warmer, but there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms as cold fronts move by.

At this start of the period, there won't be a good supply of moisture (see UCAR hourly dew point map) with our leftover Canadian air. While we will have a shot at showers and thunderstorms tomorrow night into Friday morning, the potential for significant rain will be small (see Days 1-2 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast)

Severe weather is unlikely as well (see NWS Storm Prediction Center convective outlook for Day 2) and Day 3).

Friday may be the warmest day if the early morning lingering clouds and showers get out by midday. I have temperatures climbing well into the 80's, but a drying out as the day moves on. I have highs still in the 80's on Saturday with the chance for a bit warmer conditions on Sunday, but those forecasts depend on whether the Canadian air gets into central Minnesota. 

Still, I don't see much of a shower chance over the weekend, so outdoor plans should be able to proceed. And, only Friday appears to have some air quality issues (perhaps in northeastern Minnesota). However, there are very few reports of wildfire smoke causing serious air quality levels at the ground, except near the wave of fires in Washington and Oregon.

As the heat and humidity build into Nebraska and Iowa by early next week, there would be a chance for more significant rainfall (see Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) and perhaps severe weather. However, the forecast uncertainty gets big by Saturday as the computers cannot agree on how strong the Canadian weather systems will be and how much of a drier air push Minnesota will see. 

July 2026 St. Cloud Weather Summary Available

Besides the drier than average and hotter than average conditions seen in July, my July 2026 St. Cloud weather summary that St. Cloud had more 90-degree highs than any July since 2006. And, the dry conditions date back to late last summer, falling more than 8 inches short of average.