St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Need A Lot More of Yesterday's Rain

Yesterday morning came as a bit of a surprise to me in that central Minnesota did better on rainfall than I had expected. A couple of bands in central Minnesota picked up a quarter inch of rain as of 7 AM (set NWS Water Prediction Service rainfall chart to yesterday's date). And, some of the rain came after 7 AM (St. Cloud Sky Central Airport picked up a total of 0.26 inch; see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations). As long as there is frost in the ground, or even after the ground thaws, because of last fall's low precipitation, there is going to be fire weather trouble on any very warm and windy day until we actually get greening of the ground plants (see worsening of drought conditions on yesterday's updated US Drought Monitor)

Fire Weather Watch Saturday (and Likely Monday); High Fire Danger Sat-Mon

That possibility is in the forecast for tomorrow and quite possibly Monday. The much warmer air is forecast to move back into central Minnesota tonight and we will be solidly in the warmer air tomorrow. Highs will be able to climb back into the 60's with strong southwest winds at 15-30 MPH. That's why the National Weather Service has a fire weather watch in effect for most of central and southern Minnesota (see NWS Twin Cities watch-warning map) with either fire watches or red flag warnings (the highest level of fire danger) continuing southwestward from southeastern South Dakota and Nebraska into Texas (see NWS national watch-warning map). Much of Minnesota could end up in a red flag warning on Saturday.

I also see Monday as having the potential for a high fire danger day. The latest forecasts have switched the potential for the warmest day of the next 5 from Sunday to Monday. We could see highs in the 70's in much of central Minnesota with even 80's possible in parts of southern Minnesota. There still could be winds of 10-20 MPH.

At this point, Sunday doesn't appear to be quite as warm as I had thought early (highs around 60) with still breezy conditions, but not as windy as I expect tomorrow and Monday. Still, expect the daily update of the Minnesota DNR fire danger map to show high to very high fire danger. 

The extreme fire potential means that you should postpone any burning of lawn or farm debris until it cools off (Tuesday and beyond) or until we get enough rain to allow greening of the surface vegetation. People are the number one cause of wildfires.

Cool Today and Tonight...

Around the days of elevated fire danger (tomorrow through Monday), we will see cooler conditions. Temperatures will begin today around 20 degrees (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) with some early morning clouds (see white areas in the northern half of Minnesota on the College of DuPage continental US shortwave infrared satellite loop) and even a few stray snow flakes (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) making it to the ground (see asterisks on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) and only climb back to the middle, perhaps the upper 30's today. And, we have a shot at a low near or cooler than 20 tonight.

Much Cooler Tuesday On....

The May preview will last from Saturday through Monday, but a cold front will push through Minnesota early Tuesday. Monday night temperatures will be in the 50's, dropping to the 40's late, much like yesterday morning, then daytime temperatures will remain in the 40's at best. 

...With Tuesday Rain Showers Here (Snow Up North?)

After that, seasonably cool air (highs in the 40's) appear to be on track from Wednesday on, but there is a lot of uncertainty. It appears that the Plains states will be in a wetter weather pattern from mid-week on, but I'm not sure how much precipitation potential there will be in Minnesota. The much cooler air means that the precipitation type might be either snow or rain. The Tuesday front, from which I have a chance of central Minnesota rain showers, has some small chance for significant snowfall in northern Minnesota (see Days 5-6 of the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather outlook).

On Average, St. Cloud Gets Significant Snow in 1 of 3 Aprils

I wouldn't count on either a northern Minnesota early week snow yet, nor would I forecast a possibility of some snow in any late week storm. However, keep in mind that St. Cloud has about a 1 in 3 chance of getting at least 4 inches of April snow. So, we are not safe yet.

Unfortunately, meteorologists are going to spend a lot of time this upcoming warm season looking at the latest US Drought Monitor (update later this morning). A large area of the Plains and the Intermountain Region were short on snowfall this winter (see gaps in snowfall in western Colorado, eastern Utah, and Arizona when you set the NWS NOHRSC snowfall analysis to seasonal snowfall). The amount of total precipitation (melted and liquid) is well below average since late December in eastern Washington, in the Plains from Nebraska and southern Iowa southward, and from western Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah southward (see yellow or red areas on the NWS Water Prediction Center precipitation map for the past 120 days using yesterday's date). These problems have already caused major fires in Nebraska with more fires breaking out in parts of the central and southern Plains. Water shortages are expected in areas that receive water from the Colorado River, since the pockets of low snow feed much of the Colorado River basin.

Another Early Spring Heat Wave Plains (Today) and West (Into the Weekend)

The current heat resuming in the Southern Rockies (highs in the 80's and 90's yesterday as close to us as Nebraska, Missouri, and Kansas; see yesterday's NWS WPC 4 PM CDT North America zoom-in map) will continue today in the Plains (see Day 1 of NWS Heat Risk) and into the weekend in the Southwest will just make the problem worse.

Worst Precipitation Shortage in North Central and Northeast Minnesota With Rain Needed After Ground Thaws

The main precipitation issue in Minnesota is that so much of north central, northeast, and southwestern Minnesota had a dry fall. The snow melt from the heavy snowfall in northeastern Minnesota is great for the northeastern Minnesota State Parks with waterfalls, as well as lakes and rivers, but we will need major rainfall once the frost leaves the ground to recharge the dry soil.

Temperatures Swings Continue With Saturday Most Uncertain Day

The 'wait-a-day' rapid temperature change pattern will continue into next week. The most uncertain day of the forecast is Saturday. The computer forecasts have the cooler air that will be with us today and tomorrow starting to move out, but they have been inconsistent on how quickly the leftover cold air will leave. From one day's forecast to another, the high temperature forecast has jumped or fallen 10 degrees. For now, I am going with a milder high in the upper 50's to near 60 with less confidence than the rest of the forecast.

Much Cooler Today and Tomorrow, Back to Warmth Sunday, Not Quite as Warm Monday

Today (highs in the middle 40's) and especially tomorrow (highs in the 30's to perhaps 40) will feel much cooler than yesterday's 70's. After Saturday's uncertain warm-up, we will be back in the toasty air on Sunday with highs again in the upper 60's to 70's. On Monday, it appears that a front may ease through central Minnesota, dropping our highs back into the 50's.

Besides Thurs AM Showers, Not Much Precipitation Chance Through Monday

This morning, there are some light rain showers working across northern and central Minnesota (radar echoes on the College of DuPage US north central radar loop are actually getting to the ground; see drop symbol on the . Those light showers, a few in the form of snow showers, will be in the northern half of Minnesota through mid-morning. Other than that, there will be little chance for precipitation until at least next Tuesday. There are hints of a wetter pattern for the Continental US in general during next work week. The literal computer output right now has significant precipitation in Minnesota both next Tuesday and Thursday, but I don't have a lot of confidence in the details yet.