Thursday, November 27, 2025  2:30 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Travel Issues (Mainly To Our South?) to Develop Friday-Saturday

Alert! Minnesota Got a Snow Storm!

Yesterday, I got my "are you alive?" phone call from my relatives in New York City. If Minnesota weather makes the news, like during the Halloween Blizzard in 1991 or during our record cold outbreak in 1996, they call to see if I have survived. But, I think the media standards causing the news stories that alarm my family are a bit watered down. This week's snowstorm was notable for causing travel issues during the run up to Thanksgiving, but I'd classify it as a "typical accumulating snow," with the heaviest band of between 4 and 8 inches (typical) being about 100 miles wide (a little wider than average)

The total snow accumulation from Monday into early Tuesday was a swath of between 6 and 8 inches from Fergus Falls and Alexandria through Milaca and Brainerd to Willow River. There were between 8 and 10 inches up the hill from Duluth. St. Cloud picked up 4.8 inches of snow with the northern Twin Cities getting 3-5 inches and the southern portion between 2 and 4 inches. And, the south shore of Lake Superior in Upper Michigan and northern Wisconsin already have a few reports of 1-2 feet of snow (see orange and red reports). So now, a piece of the Northern Plains from the North Dakota-South Dakota line through central Minnesota and into Wisconsin have snow cover (see NWS NOHRSC snow depth map).

Road Conditions Improved, But Watch for Icy Spots in Untreated Areas

The snow ended early enough yesterday morning to allow a full day of road crews working. Still, where the strong northwest winds with gusts as high as 45 MPH in St. Cloud (see NWS last 72-hours of St. Cloud observations) pushed snow across roads, there are some secondary roads with partial or complete snow coverage (see MnDOT Minnesota road reports). And, even where the snow was cleared, the persistent temperatures below freezing iced up the lingering layer on pavement. I finished clearing my driveway around 6 AM yesterday, but it looks like the surface of a lake with bad ice. A day of sunshine would quickly melt the ice on pavement, at least where it isn't in the shade, but there are still instability clouds (see College of DuPage shortwave infrared North America satellite loop) lingering in the northwest-to-southeast flow on the western flank of the departing low in southern Ontario (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop).

The precipitation from the departing storm is only causing some flight issues around Detroit (see Flight Aware current conditions) and in the Pacific Northwest.

Next Issue: Potential Friday-Saturday Plains Storm, With Heavy Snow Band on Northern Flank...

That Pacific Northwest storm (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) will be the next source of travel trouble during the Thanksgiving weekend. It will move through the northern Rockies, emerging in the central Plains by Saturday. There is the potential for heavy rainfall in thunderstorms over the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday and from the Southeast into New England Sunday through Tuesday (see Days 3-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The computer forecasts have some major disagreement about the way this storm system interacts with the one in southwestern Alaska (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), which would affect the area for rain potential a little bit, but there is much more doubt about the location and timing of snow potential when the storm comes out into the Plains. Right now, there is good potential for major Montana snow tomorrow (set NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance to 00 UTC Sat) and a good chance for heavy Plains snowfall Friday into Saturday with the best chance somewhere over northern or central Iowa (set NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance to 00 UTC Sun), where I have the most confidence in 6 inches or more of snow. There is also potential for the Chicago and Detroit air hubs being affected over the weekend (see Day 4 on the Days 4-7 NWS WPC winter weather outlook and the Days 3-7 hazards map), but that's more uncertain.

...That Will Only Brush Central Minnesota (Southern Minnesota Issues?)

The forecasts vary about the potential for some snow in central and southern Minnesota. At this point, it appears that southern Minnesota will have a shot at plowable snow from Friday evening into at least Saturday morning (with some chance of the snow being delayed). Still, I could see anything from southeastern Minnesota seeing the 6 inches plus and southern Minnesota having a 2-4 inch snowfall to lesser amounts if the storm is either weaker or tracks further to the south, which some of the computer forecasts show. The snow could begin earlier in southwestern Minnesota, so there is also some chance of 6 inches plus, between Friday midday and Saturday. At this point, I have a less than confident forecast for between a dusting and 2 inches of snow over the St. Cloud area from late Friday night into late afternoon Saturday. This could include nothing but flurries if the storm tracks further southward.

So, you will definitely need to watch forecast updates if you have ground travel planned to our south and east over the weekend (at least pack the ingredients for a cold weather survival kit in your vehicle) as well as air travel from Dallas-Ft. Worth possibly into Chicago and Detroit.

Cold Through Saturday, Cold for Even January Sunday-Tuesday

Behind the southwestern Alaska storm, even colder air will move in. Our highs will be in the 20's today through Saturday with some single digit wind chills. However, we will cool with high temperatures Sunday through Tuesday likely only in the teens. Both Sunday and Monday mornings will likely have wind chills in the minus single digits if not minus teens. And, we could see our first sub-zero low of the cold season Monday morning if the skies are clear and the winds are calm. Still, this will be milder than one of those severe arctic outbreaks (I don't think they qualify unless highs are below zero and lows are in the -20's or wind chills get into the -30's). Beyond then, I can only say that temperatures will likely remain below average (teens or 20's under question) with uncertain chances for a narrow snow band affecting some part of Minnesota. I wonder if I'll get another phone call early next week?

Links to Ground and Air Travel Conditions

I will be on duty all of this week, due to the high demand for updated weather information. That includes Thanksgiving morning as well as next weekend. As usual, I will have the following link of ground and air travel links all week

• Ground Travel
  • Minnesota
  • Surrounding States
    • Iowa
    • North Dakota
    • South Dakota
    • Nebraska
    • Wisconsin
    • Michigan
  • Surrounding Provinces
    • Manitoba
    • Ontario
• Air Travel
  • Flight Aware Misery Map
  • Flight Aware Delays and Cancellations

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Thursday 11/27/2025: Mixed clouds and sun with perhaps a stray snow flake, still a biting wind, and December-like. High: between 22 and 27. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH. Wind chill: plus single digits during the morning, teens during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Partly clear with diminishing wind and colder. Low: between 7 and 14. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH evening, light NW late. Evening wind chill: plus single digits Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Friday 11/28/2025: Sunshine through thickening high and middle clouds, light winds, and still cold. High: between 20 and 26. Winds: light during the morning, SE 5-10 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Friday Night: Thickening clouds with a chance of light snow or flurries late at night. Light winds, but not quite as cold. Low: between 12 and 17, rising to near 20 by morning. Winds: E 5-15 MPH. Wind chill: between 0 and +15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Saturday 11/29/2025: A chance of light snow or flurries, breezy and cold again. Between a dusting and 2 inches of new snow is possible late Friday night through Saturday afternoon. High: between 24 and 28. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Saturday Night: Lingering evening clouds and perhaps a flurry, then partly clear late at night, breezy, and cold. Low: between 12 and 17. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between 0 and +10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Sunday 11/30/2025: Sunny to partly cloudy with a biting breeze and colder. Temperatures falling into the plus single digits by mid-morning, then recovering to between 12 and 17. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -15 and +5 during the morning, in the plus single digits during the afternoon.Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Sunday Night: Clear early, partly clear late, light winds, and even colder. Low: between -5 and 0 evening, rising into plus territory late at night. Winds: light NW evening, SW 5 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Monday 12/10/2025: Sunny to partly cloudy with typical January-like cold. High: between 12 and 17. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: between -10 and 0 during the morning, in the plus single digits during the afternoon.Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Continued colder than average through at least Tuesday (highs in the teens, lows in the single digits either above or below zero)??? Uncertain chances for snow??

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Thursday through Friday, 3 Friday night, 2 Saturday, 4 Sunday and Monday.

Yesterday's High: 28°F (set at midnight Tuesday night); Yesterday's Daytime High: 26°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Thursday): 19°F; Yesterday's Highest Wind Gust (through 2 AM Thursday): 45 MPH at 9:56 AM
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): Trace; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): Trace; Yesterday's Coldest Wind Chill (through 2 AM Thursday): 9°F set at Midnight and 1 AM Wednesday Night

Next Update: Friday, November 28, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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