St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Drier Today and Tomorrow

Drier air was finally circulated into eastern and central Minnesota yesterday. The Montana low drifted westward yesterday (see counterclockwise circulation on the College of DuPage North America water vapor loop), allowing east winds to develop. While yesterday afternoon's dew points were in the upper 50's (green numbers on yesterday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), dew points have fallen back to the 50's and even 40's overnight (see UCAR hourly dew point chart).

Wildfire Danger Increases First Half of Week

Note that the drier air with high temperatures likely returning to the 80's will once again lead to elevated fire danger in the dry parts of northern and western Minnesota today and tomorrow. 

Sticky Air and Strong Thunderstorms Not Far Away

On the other hand, the very ripe moisture (see brown and orange on the UCAR hourly dew point chart) fed very strong 'blobs' of thunderstorms (see College of DuPage clean infrared satellite loop) from South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa southward. That moisture will be available when the high pressure area over northern Ontario (center of clockwise circulation on the College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) finally weakens, allowing the Montana low to approach Minnesota.

Increased Chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday Night-Thursday

This pattern will set Minnesota up for more frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms, most likely Wednesday night into Thursday (see Days 2-3 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), but uncertain chances for storms continuing into Saturday (see Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). Those storm chances may produce severe weather Wednesday night (see NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 2 convective outlook) with the main threat being straight-line damaging winds since there is the potential for another large thunderstorm blob moving from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota. The most important potential will be significant rainfall with half-inch (green on the Days 2-3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) noted in parts of Minnesota. Where the strongest storms develop on Thursday will depend on where the Wednesday night storms end up.

Uncertain Chances for Friday-Saturday Showers and Thunderstorms

For the rest of the week into the weekend, Minnesota will lie near the path of Pacific storm systems as they edge west-to-east. There isn't likely to be a push of drier air into Minnesota, so the humidity will remain uncomfortable. Since the overall front, marking the difference between the uncomfortable humidity and the drier air in Canada, will stall either in Minnesota or Iowa (see front position on the NWS WPC 7-day loop of US forecast maps), there will be a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms. However, the computer forecasts cannot agree about the path of the next storm. The US forecast has it pushing into Minnesota by Saturday while the European forecast has a weaker system drifting from Manitoba into Ontario. So, I have continued but uncertain chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

Uncertain Potential for Hotter and Humid Conditions Sunday into Early Next Week

Eventually, high pressure is forecast to redevelop over the Northern Plains late in the weekend into early next week. That would have a chance to warm temperatures up (more consistent highs in the 80's), but the storm chances remain uncertain. 

The May and Spring (meteorological spring runs from March through May) 2026 St. Cloud weather summary is now available. The 0.24 inch of rain on May 31 allowed St. Cloud to avoid one of the 10 driest August through May periods, but rainfall is more than six and a half inches behind for those 9 months. After an up-and-down May temperature month (including some late frosts and freezes), the streak of 7 straight highs of 80 or warmer pushed the May average temperature to within 0.2 degrees of the 1991-2020 normal.