St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Saturday, March 14, 2026 2:45 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

(Some Chunk of) Central and Southern Minnesota to Get Major Snow (Some Ice)

After yesterday's high winds (as much as 67 MPH in Windom, 53 MPH in St. Cloud; search for wind in the NWS Twin Cities storm reports list) and snow to the north (8-10 inches along the North Shore; see NWS Twin Cities local snowfall reports), we are set up for the last storm in the series.

Still An Uncertain Forecast

The storm is only now reaching the Pacific Northwest (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor satellite loop), but early clouds (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) and some snow showers (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) have developed in Montana and the Dakotas.

That position means that only the upper air reports from North America later this morning will properly sample the air around the developing storm. So, my confidence level in pinning down the heaviest potential snowfall in Minnesota is still limited this morning (4-5 out of 10)

Heavy Snowband of 10 Inches Plus (Probably Not 20)

I remain the most confident that there will be a swath of heavy snowfall about 50-100 miles wide in central and southern Minnesota. The latest forecasts have increased the speed of the storm, so snow will break out from late this afternoon in central Minnesota to this evening in the Twin Cities. The heaviest snow will continue through around midday tomorrow. This will be a strong storm, so the visibility will be near zero, both during the period of heavier snowfall and after it tapers off, due to very strong winds blowing the snow around. So, the near impossible travel period begins tonight and will last all the way through Monday (confidence level: 9 of 10)

To the south of the heaviest snow, there will be a chance of significant freezing rain and ice accumulation, followed by a period of major snowfall. That is most likely in parts of northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. This combination will keep the impact of this storm high in southern Minnesota (confidence 7 of 10).

At this point, I would urge anyone with travel plans in central and southern Minnesota anytime between Saturday evening and Monday to:

• Move them to today if possible
• Cancel them or postpone them until after Monday.

Where Do Current Forecasts Put the Heaviest Snow (and How May That Move)?

The latest information has the swath of heaviest snow in a central Minnesota band with Wheaton, Appleton, and Marshall on the west side of it, and Pine City, Red Wing, and Stillwater on the eastern side of the heaviest snow. That would put Lac qui Parle, much of the Minnesota River Valley, and the Twin Cities in the heaviest snow and would put Alexandria, St. Cloud, and Mora with a snow rivaling the worst we saw in November. In this band, more than 10 inches of snow is quite likely, although I am suspicious about the top amount in many forecasts (they are taking the heaviest computer forecast snowfall literally, and that is usually too high), so I wouldn't take any 20+ inch forecast literally yet. I would cautiously go for a 10-18 inch range...I think.

The uncertainty is that this band could still easily shift 50 miles either to the north or to the south. A north jump would put St. Cloud right in the heaviest snow with larger amounts in Brainerd and Little Falls, but lower snowfall totals in St. Peter, Marshall, and perhaps the southern Twin Cities. A shift to the south could put St. Cloud with shovelable snow, but lower amounts.

I still think the table below sums up the potential snowfall and my confidence in the forecast

The best chance for really huge snowfall totals, like in the Northeast from the mid-February storm or along the North Shore will be in northern and central Wisconsin, Upper Michigan, and perhaps the northwestern side of Lower Michigan (see foot-plus potential, lower left panel, of the Days 2 and 3 of the NWS WPC composite snowfall forecast)

The bulk of the Minnesota snow will fall Saturday night through midday on Sunday, but east central or southeastern Minnesota could have lingering snow into Sunday evening. This is also shaky, since the speed of the forecast system is a bit faster. As noted above, the consequences will still make travel difficult all of Sunday well into Monday.

Note that any foot or more of accumulation would rank within St. Cloud's top 25 single storm snowfall totals.

Note: I could thrown a major hissy fit about the meteorology jargon being thrown around...

• it's not a polar vortex, since the air won't come from the arctic, won't be near record cold, and won't stall 
• it may not be an explosive cyclone (or bomb); latest forecasts have smaller development
• heat dome (see Sun-Fri on the NWS Heat Risk map) and atmospheric river won't affect us
• not mentioned as much, but there's a huge severe weather threat Sunday and Monday

...but you need to know the forecast details, not that other nonsense.

The Rest of Winter Strikes Back Sunday Night Through Tuesday

This time, the strong winds will also blow much colder air, so Monday and Tuesday will feel like a cold spell in January or February. Temperatures are likely to fall to the plus single digits and perhaps by Monday morning with wind chills of between -28 and -14 bordering on the seriously cold levels. High temperatures will only recover to the middle or perhaps even lower teens during Monday afternoon. The winds are forecast to calm on Monday night, so low temperatures will be in the minus single digits with perhaps a few minus teens in areas with the deepest snow cover.

Milder Air to Produce Major Melting Second Half of Next Week

The 'heat dome' (OK, maybe that does affect our weather eventually) that will set up in the western US this weekend will try to push eastward. Since the forecast keeps the major weekend storm in motion into northeastern Canada, that will be possible. The main question is how long it will take for the area of large snowfall to melt. If the winds are light, fog development could slow down both the warm-up or melting, but it appears that our first shot at above freezing temperatures would be Wednesday.

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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