Monday, February 16, 2026  4:10 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Getting Ready for a Pair of New Week Storms

Major Precipitation Has Been Missing Minnesota in 2026

Since the beginning of the year, Minnesota has been extremely dry (St. Cloud only 0.33 inch ; 0.69 inch below average; only 6.2 inches of snowfall combined in January and February); 17.7 inches average combined for the 2 months) during both the extreme cold of late January and the much milder than average conditions of early February (see 30-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). However, a pair of storms off the Pacific Coast (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) have the potential of spreading important precipitation in parts of Minnesota this week. 

First Storm Has Potential for Accumulating Snow, Mostly in Northern Half of Minnesota

The first storm is due to affect Minnesota beginning either late tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night and last through Wednesday. The computer forecasts have some variation, but they put the bulk of the precipitation in the northern two-thirds of Minnesota (see Days 2-3 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The best chance for precipitation in central Minnesota appears to be Tuesday night, especially the first half. We will likely be mild enough for the precipitation to begin as rain in northern and central Minnesota. However, this storm will have the potential for enough cold air to get into the system to produce a changeover to wet snow. The best chance for this will be in the northern half of Minnesota with between 3 and 6 inches possible (set tab to 00 UTC Thurs, 6 PM CST Wed, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). 

St. Cloud Good Chance of More Rain Than Snow Late Tuesday into Tuesday Night...

In Central Minnesota, the changeover line is not that far to the north of St. Cloud from midnight Tuesday night through Wednesday. However, St. Cloud is forecast to be near or at the southern edge of the steady precipitation. That would keep the heaviest snowfall after the atmosphere is cold enough to snow just to our north (more likely in Brainerd than St. Cloud). Also, the latest forecasts have ground temperatures mostly staying between freezing and the middle 30's. To get snow to accumulate, we usually need ground temperatures of 34 degrees or colder; otherwise, the snow tends to melt on contact with the ground. Again, it wouldn't take much of a southward shift of the snowband to put St. Cloud in more of the accumulating snow. However, the computer forecasts have trended the precipitation further to the north over the past 24 hours.

There is also a chance that the main belt of precipitation will transition from rain to snow with a short period of ice in between, but it's too early to be sure about that.

...And Wednesday Snow May Not Even Stick

So, I have mostly rain with the bulk of the precipitation late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. We will see a changeover to snow around midnight on Tuesday night, but that's when the rate of precipitation should ease up. I have a chance for between a dusting and 2 inches of new wet snow accumulation late Tuesday night and Wednesday, but the potential snowfall will drop if temperatures stay in the middle 30's (good chance for that on Wednesday).

Second Storm Wednesday Nt-Thursday?

A second storm will come out of the Pacific system, but it is forecast to track further to the south as it goes by to our south Wednesday night and Thursday. Since the first storm will sweep the very mild air out of Minnesota, the precipitation from the second storm will most likely be in the form of snow. Right now, the computer forecasts have that snow mostly in southern Minnesota with some of it possibly brushing the Twin Cities (see Days 4-5 on the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather guidance). However, the forecast trend over the past 24 hours has seen wild swings with the storm placed at least a state off on several runs. There are even a few scenarios that would bring this snow back into central Minnesota. For now, I have a 20% chance for light snow or flurries at these times, but my forecast is quite shaky.

Until Then, Not Quite as Warm as the Weekend

Temperatures missed a record warm high on Saturday by 1 degree (high of 51 degrees in St. Cloud), but our highs have been over 45 for the past three days (see 30-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest), pushing the number of mild highs for the winter above average in each category (see table below):

However, a cold front has been racing southeastward into the Dakotas and Minnesota (see 24-hour loop of NWS WPC US surface charts). That cold front will push through Minnesota before daybreak (see shift from south winds to north winds on the last 6 hours of the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). 

While temperatures were much cooler to the north of the front yesterday afternoon than they were to the south of it (highs in the 60's from western Minnesota and northern Iowa through South Dakota, eastern Montana, and Nebraska on yesterday's 3 PM CST NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), we will still have a good supply of sunshine with only a few high afternoon clouds (see College of DuPage clean infrared North Central US satellite loop), so we will have highs similar to the 40's seen in southern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and North Dakota to the north of that cold front; again see yesterday's 3 PM CST NWS WPC North America zoom-in map).

We will have another shot at a below-freezing low tonight, so the melting and refreezing will work on potholes, but the increasing clouds from the first storm system should limit tomorrow's highs to around 40. 

Colder Late Week (Not Sure How Cold), Storm Possibilities (But Not Certain) Next Week

After the storms go by, the computers agree that we won't see a repeat of the warmth from the past several days. However, they disagree about whether we will have colder than average temperatures (highs in the teens or lower 20's) or near to slightly above average temperatures (highs in the middle 20's to even middle 30's). There are signs that a pattern that has storms moving at least closer to Minnesota carrying more moisture than they have over the past month and a half will continue next week, but any specific forecast of precipitation type or amount in any part of Minnesota is a wild guess right now. 

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Monday 2/16/2026: Mostly sunny with some afternoon high clouds and not quite as mild. High: between 42 and 47. Winds: N 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Monday Night: Partly clear, breezier, and milder. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: E 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Tuesday 2/17/2026: Thickening clouds with a chance of rain showers developing during the middle or late afternoon. Blustery and not quite as warm. High: between 37 and 42. Winds: E 10-20 MPH during the morning, 15-30 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10% during the morning, 40% during the afternoon.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head"

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with rain showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm through the evening. A chance for some wet snow mixed in before precipitation tapers off during the early morning hours.  Low: between 32 and 35. Winds: E 10-20 MPH during the evening, SE 5-15 MPH early morning. Chance of measurable precipitation: 70% evening, 40% after midnight.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Wednesday 2/18/2026: Cloudy and colder with occasional light snow or flurries. Between a dusting and 2 inches could accumulate, if it doesn't melt on contact with the ground. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH during the morning, 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy with a chance of flurries, breezy, and a bit cooler. Low: between 23 and 28. Winds: W-NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Thursday 2/19/2026: Mixed sunshine and clouds with a slight chance for a snow shower. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Thursday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, and a little cooler. A slight chance for a flurry. Low: between 20 and 25. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Friday 2/20/2026: Partly sunny and close to seasonably cold. High: between 28 and 33. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Uncertain how close to seasonably cold we will have next weekend??? Chance of an early week storm affecting us or nearby?? 

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 9 Monday, 8 Monday night, 6 Tuesday, 5 Tuesday night, 3 Wednesday, 4 Wednesday night, 3 Thursday, 4 Thursday night, 2 Friday, 1 Weekend. 

Yesterday's High: 46°F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM Monday): 32°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 4 AM Monday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 4 AM Monday): None

Next Update: Tuesday, February 17, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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