Saturday, March 29, 2025  3:00 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Difficult Travel Night Ahead in Central Minnesota (Both Ice and Snow Possible)

Mother Nature Threw Everything at Minnesota Yesterday

On Friday, Minnesota nearly had every type of weather in the weather guide. The I-90 corridor of southern Minnesota remained to the south of the strong front (see yesterday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), so highs climbed into the 80's, including Worthington's 86. As the first storm moved along the front last evening, showers and thunderstorms broke out in south central and southeastern Minnesota and over the Twin Cities (set number of frames to 96 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). A few of the storms in south central Minnesota produced some large hail and wind gusts up to 61 MPH. To the north, the cool high over northern Ontario pumped cool air on northeast winds. When the lift from the first low moved in around midday yesterday, showers and even a few thunderstorms developed across northern Minnesota (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). With the ground temperatures hovering near or just above freezing, the thunderstorms produced sleet and freezing rain (see 'question mark' weather symbols between 1 and 4 PM, 18Z-21Z, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) and even some hail (see green dots on the NWS Duluth local storm reports). In Duluth, there was nearly a quarter inch of ice accumulation (see purple dots on the NWS Duluth local storm reports), plus wind gusts over 45 MPH (see NWS: last 72 hours of Duluth observations). There are some roads in north central and northeastern Minnesota with either ice or slush on the pavement (see MnDOT Minnesota road reports).

The thunderstorms from southern Minnesota have pushed into Wisconsin and there are only a few freezing rain sprinkles in northern Minnesota (see latest College of DuPage north central US radar loop and the latest NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). The front has pushed into northern Iowa (see area where north winds shift to southwest on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map, so temperatures are in the 30's in northern and central Minnesota and in the 40's in southern Minnesota.

....But You Couldn't Tell Much from St. Cloud

St. Cloud was to the west of the evening thunderstorms, so we only saw a few sprinkles yesterday morning. Temperatures did climb to the upper 50's, but the cooler air dropped temperatures back to the 40's after 3 PM (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations) and to the 30's during the evening.

You can see the complicated storm pattern on the mid-tropospheric water vapor loop (from Colorado State satellite slider). There are low pressure centers (counterclockwise circulations) on the Louisiana coast, triggering thunderstorms along the Gulf of Mexico coast, a Colorado low, which is producing bands of rain in western Kansas and Nebraska, the area where the very warm air moved over the cool air, producing the thunderstorms and ice, which have now moved into Wisconsin and Michigan, and the strongest storm just moving into California (red spot). However, the Colorado storm will allow the next system to affect Minnesota from this afternoon well into tomorrow.

Next Storm More Likely to Produce Icy Mix over Central Minnesota From Late Today Through Tonight

The overnight trend on all of the computer forecasts has been to track this system even further to the north than had been seen earlier in the week. That means the southern two-thirds of Minnesota, south of a Fargo-Duluth line, will have a chance for major precipitation today (see Days 1 and 2 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). That also means the area of nearly all rain will cover southern Minnesota with mainly rainfall until the very end of the storm in the Twin Cities as well. That pushes the area with the best chance for between 1 and 4 inches of snow to an Ortonville-Brainerd line tonight, with some ice still mixed in. (set precipitation type to snow, time tab to 18 UTC Sunday on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance) That band of accumulating snow is difficult to forecast, since it will likely be only about 50 miles wide. However, these changes bring the possibility of a prolonged wintry mix with significant ice to a swath of central Minnesota. In the current forecast scenario, Willmar, Alexandria, Little Falls, St. Cloud, Cambridge, Princeton, and Pine City would have a good chance of ice accumulation with even a chance for a quarter inch of ice accumulation in some areas (set precipitation type to freezing rain, time tab to 12 UTC Sun on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). The quarter inch accumulation is a big deal because that much ice could bring down trees and power lines when strong winds hit the area. I'm not sure I would rate the ice confidence at 70% (light blue to orange), since the swath will be narrow, and the forecasts could jump around more. Also, given the current model trend, the best chance for ice could continue to move northward in future model runs.

However, I will say that all of central Minnesota will see major travel issues between a period of ice from late this afternoon through the evening with the chance of precipitation becoming wet snow and accumulating, especially to our north (see MnDOT Minnesota road reports). And, the St. Cloud area will have the precipitation begin as rain and sleet this afternoon and have the possibility of a prolonged period of ice this evening with some chance of the precipitation turning to wet snow. In the current scenario, a quarter inch of ice accumulation or as much as 2 inches of wet snow would be possible.

The computer forecasts disagree about how quickly the precipitation will taper off on Sunday with some scenarios changing the precipitation to flurries or sprinkles late tonight and others prolonging a period of snow until middle Sunday. Temperatures will begin climbing above freezing again as Sunday morning goes on, so the worst of the travel issues will tonight into the start of tomorrow.

The National Weather Service has Hinckley into Wisconsin in a winter storm watch for the worst of both worlds (up to a quarter inch of ice and between 2 and 4 inches of wet snow). Northeastern Minnesota is still in a winter weather advisory from last night's precipitation until 7 AM. A big swath of central and south central Minnesota are in a winter weather advisory for some combination of ice and snow accumulation. That area includes Morris, Mankato, the northern half of the Twin Cities, and the I-94 corridor from Battle Lake to the Twin Cities.

A 36-Hour Break....

We will have a break between storm systems from late Sunday through early Tuesday. Temperatures will be a little bit cooler than the early April average, but daytime highs should climb above freezing, allowing significant melting.

....Then More Significant Precipitation late Tuesday into Wednesday (With Some Frozen Forms Possible)

However, the active weather pattern will continue with another storm to the south of the Aleutian Islands (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) hitting the West Coast Sunday night into Monday and then pushing into the Plains by Wednesday. This system will produce another chance for significant precipitation (see Days 4-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). Parts of Minnesota could tap into the general thunderstorm threat (see severe weather threat on Days 5-6 of the NWS Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook) The northern portion of the precipitation could again be snow, especially wherever on Tuesday night (see Days 4-5 on the NWS WPC winter weather outlook). It's too early to pin down who gets hit the hardest and where the narrow band of snow will set up.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Saturday 3/29/2025: Cloudy, windy, and colder with a few morning or midday sprinkles. Rain or sleet developing during the afternoon, turning to freezing rain and sleet by late in the day. Perhaps some thunder. Some ice accumulation is possible by evening. High: between 35 and 40, falling to near 30 by late in the day. Winds: NE 10-20 MPH during the morning, 15-25 MPH with gusts over 35 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20% during the morning and midday, 80% during the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Cloudy with a good chance for a mixed bag of wet snow, sleet, and freezing rain through midnight, tapering to light freezing rain or mixed precipitation showers late at night. Between a coating and 2 inches of mainly ice and some snow is possible by morning. Windy and cold. Low: between 26 and 32. Winds: NE 10-20 MPH with gusts over 35 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 80% through 2 AM, 60% after 2 AM.

Sunday 3/30/2025: Cloudy, windy, and continued cold. Occasional light snow or flurries or rain showers through midday, then just mostly cloudy and windy during the afternoon. Between zero and 2 inches of wet snow accumulation is possible during the morning. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: NE 15-25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH during the morning, 10-20 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 60% during the morning, 20% during the afternoon.

Sunday Night: Partial clearing, breezy during the evening, and a bit colder. Low: between 23 and 28. Winds: N 8-15 MPH evening, 5-10 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 3/31/2025: Sunny, breezy, and still a little colder than average. High: between 37 and 42. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH during the morning, 5-10 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Partly clear with light evening winds, some clouds and a bit of a breeze during the early morning hours. A bit colder than average again. Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: light evening, becoming E-SE 5-15 MPH after midnight. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Tuesday 4/1/2025: Cloudy, breezy, and cold with a chance of rain or snow. High: between 32 and 35. Winds: SE 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 50%.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy and windy with a chance of snow, rain, or mixed precipitation. Low: between 30 and 35. Winds: SE 15-25 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 50%.

Wednesday 4/2/2025: Cloudy and not quite as cold. A few sprinkles or flurries possible. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH during the morning, NE 5-10 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 30%.

Extended: Active weather pattern slows late next week, so a drier period possible late in the work week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 5 Saturday, 4 Saturday night and Sunday, 6 Sunday night through Monday night, 3 Tuesday through Wednesday.

Yesterday's High: 58°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Saturday): 34°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Saturday): Trace

Next Update: Sunday, March 30, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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