St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

US Isn't the Only Country Nearing an Independence Celebration....

As we start July, we are preparing for the 250th Independence Day in the US. But today is also the 160th Canada Day with celebrations by our neighbors to the north today. 

Weatherwise, south central Canada and the Midwest and Northern Plains will continue to share the warm and uncomfortably humid conditions with near daily outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared loop), which become more difficult to predict further into the forecast. That's because we will be one to two states north of the searing heat and humidity (see NWS Heat Risk), of which we had a taste on Monday.

Storms Likely Today Both Morning and Late Afternoon (Severe Weather Possible in Both Outbreaks)

Since the Manitoba storm (counterclockwise circulation on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) is pulling another round of the sultry air northward early this morning, we will have a good chance for showers and thunderstorms today, both during the morning (note the early morning blossoming of storms to our south and west on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop) and in the afternoon. The storms will be able to tap the uncomfortable dew points in the middle 60's (see tan on the UCAR hourly dew point chart), which have increased from the upper 50's during yesterday afternoon. So, some storms will produce large hail or straight line damaging winds or perhaps even a tornado during the morning hours. This afternoon, storms are likely to redevelop on the edge of the heat, most likely along the southern fringe of the leftover clouds from the morning storms. This favors southern Minnesota more than central Minnesota, but I still have a chance for some scattered storms this afternoon into the early evening. The area of strongest redevelopment is a bit uncertain, but southern Minnesota is more likely to get the worst of these storms, so the NWS Storm Prediction Center rates the severe weather threat as category 3 of 5 in the Twin Cities and south central and southeastern Minnesota. The St. Cloud area severe weather threat is rated category 1 to our north and west and category 2 to our south and east.

Hard to Track Weak Systems Will Bring Uncertain Storm Threats Through Weekend (Next Chance Thursday Night?)

To the west and southwest of the Manitoba low, there are a few weaker counterclockwise circulations that are forecast to move near the Minnesota-Canada border during the rest of the week and into the weekend, but the computer forecasts of these systems are less certain as we go on. I cautiously have a smaller chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow from midnight through the middle afternoon, so we will have a shot at an upper 80's to lower 90's high temperature. There will be a better chance for showers and thunderstorms starting late tomorrow and peaking tomorrow night (I again have a 50-50 shot at storms). The NWS Storm Prediction Center has a chance for these storms to produce mainly straight-line damaging winds tomorrow night with some hail possible for evening storms.

The near daily threat of storms will continue in the area through the weekend. The computer forecasts tend to put the rainfall in south central Canada into northern Minnesota and in southern Minnesota to Iowa (see NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), but it's hard to pin down what areas across Minnesota would have the most storms, what days will have the best chance, and whether that chance will be late night-morning or afternoon-evening. So, it's too early to adjust Independence Day celebration plans, but organizers should think about an indoor Plan B in case thunderstorms approach. 

Warm (Mostly 80's Highs), Humid (Mostly 60's Lows) Through End of the Week

We will likely remain warmer than average and humid with highs probably in the 80's (the best chance for 90 will be tomorrow) and dew points in the uncomfortable 60's (there is a small chance for an oppressive 70 degree dew point tomorrow, but that won't reach the sticky often seen in hurricane air flow that we had on Monday). Lows will probably remain in the 60's, which still can be uncomfortable for those without air conditioning. Since the warm nights will stack up, it would be good idea to check on vulnerable people (seniors and those without air conditioning and fans) over the next few days.

Smoke May Also Be an Issue

Any sunny period tomorrow through Friday will likely have high haze from the large Rocky Mountain fires (see EPA fire and smoke map) like we had yesterday. We might have a chance at some slightly drier air over the weekend as some forecasts have a northeast flow, bringing air from east central Canada (Quebec and Hudson Bay), but that is uncertain. If that happens, some of the low-level smoke in the central Canada wildfires from the Yukon to Quebec might head this way.