St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Large Hail, Tornadoes Hit Southern Minnesota 

St. Cloud remained far enough into the cooler air to the north of the front (see yesterday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) to miss the severe thunderstorms that developed over southern Minnesota during the afternoon (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). There were several reports of large hail as big as 3 inches in diameter (see NWS Storm Prediction Center storm reports) and a tornado close to the Iowa border near Matawan and another tornado near Amboy. 

The storms produced 0.84 inch of rain at LaCrosse and 0.88 inch of rain in Rochester.

St. Cloud only was brushed by some late afternoon light showers and received only a trace of rain. The clouds did keep temperatures down to the upper 50's (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations).

Storms Not Far to Our South Today and Tomorrow....

The front hasn't moved that far to the south, so the very moist air is still in southeastern Minnesota and Iowa (dew points in the upper 50's in southeastern Minnesota on the UCAR hourly dew point chart, but temperatures also in the 50's; see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). However, the west-southwest to east-northeast movement of yesterday's storms will continue the next two days, so the nearby severe thunderstorm potential both today and tomorrow will mainly stay to our south (see also NWS WPC Days 1-2 quantitative precipitation forecast). So, we will see the clearing skies from eastern Nebraska and South Dakota (see clean infrared satellite loop from Colorado State satellite slider). 

...But Sunny and Still Warm Weather Returns

So, I am more optimistic about high temperatures the next three days. We should have temperatures top out in the middle 60's today and the lower 60's tomorrow. Despite the lack of rain, dew points should remain in the 40's, so I don't have the chance of frost during the middle of the week.

Much Warmer Again Thursday Until Midday Friday

A stronger storm to the southeast of Alaska (see Pacific mid-troposphere water vapor satellite loop from Colorado State satellite slider) will push into the Intermountain West by Thursday. Ahead of that system, we will have stronger south winds, so there will be another warm-up. Highs should climb into the 70's on Thursday. Thursday night's lows will remain in the upper 50's, perhaps near 60. That would break the April 17 record warm low of 56, set in 1977, but that won't hold through midnight on Friday night. Highs would have a shot at the 80's by midday or early afternoon on Friday, although the timing of the front would likely leave the temperature short of the April 17 record warm high of 86, set in 1987).

Midday Friday Front Could Push Worst of Storms to Our East

There will be a good chance for showers and thunderstorms during Friday afternoon (see Days 4-5 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) with another severe weather threat possible (not quite as favorable as yesterday?), but the midday timing of the cold front will keep the highest threat for severe weather in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin.

You'll Need That Winter Coat, Hat (Boots?) on Saturday

Don't use the warmth this week to pack away your winter weather gear. That eastern Pacific low is still forecast to strengthen as it pushes through Minnesota on Saturday. That will allow much cooler air to move in. Temperatures will fall back into the 40's after the storms move through Friday afternoon and will drop to near or below freezing by Saturday morning. Since the upper air low will remain above us on Saturday, we will have a lot of clouds, strong winds, and some on-and-off snow showers. I am not taking the plowable snow chance shown in the computer forecasts literally, but we could be cold enough (highs in the low to middle 30's) to see a light accumulation of snow (see Days 4 and 5 of the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather outlook). That is a bit uncertain. Still, the strong winds and colder air will produce wind chills in the teens and 20's during Saturday.

Sunday will be another cool day, but we should have more sun, allowing highs to climb back into the 40's. This cold push will quickly yield to seasonably warm temperatures (highs at least in the 50's) by the middle of next week. 

Warm Season Severe Weather Awareness Week

Warm Season Severe Weather Awareness Week continues in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and South Dakota. Safety steps before and during severe weather outbreaks are covered.