St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Coolest Days and Nights in Nearly a Month

So far, our break from summer-like heat has produced a low of 51 degrees yesterday morning (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations), the coolest low temperature since June 26, with another shot at a cooler low early this morning (see latest NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), and a high of 74 yesterday, the coolest high since June 25

Dew points have remained in the comfortable 40's during yesterday afternoon to near 50 early this morning (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations).

Cool Start Today, then a Bit Warmer Afternoon, and Still Hazy

Today, we will have fewer clouds around than yesterday (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop), but we will still be in the western flank of the cooler air mass. Early morning temperatures will be in the 40's to our north and near 50 here, climbing to the upper 70's or maybe 80 this afternoon, a little higher than yesterday. The sunshine will again be hazy as the mid-level smoke plume from the Canadian wildfires remain (see shaded area on the EPA fire and smoke map). However, the orange Air Quality Index (unhealthy for sensitive people) category from Winnipeg into North Dakota probably won't get here since our upper level winds are more from the south. Most of Minnesota has good air quality this morning with a forecast of moderate air quality for the next few days. 

Heat On Track to Return by Weekend

But, the high pressure area over Oklahoma (center of clockwise circulation dominating the western two-thirds of the US on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) will push northwestward. Highs got to 100 degrees in Texas through southeastern Colorado with 90's northward to Wyoming (see yesterday's 4 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). Those 90's and perhaps a few 100's will get into the Dakotas by tomorrow and push 90's into much of Minnesota over the weekend (see red and spotty purple on the the NWS Heat Risk forecast). There isn't much purple in Minnesota, since dew points will likely top off in the 60's and could be in the merely noticeable 50's during each afternoon.

With Only a Small Storm Chance, Mainly Friday Night

There will be the chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms as the hotter air pushes in, mostly on Friday night. The chance for both severe weather and significant rainfall (see Days 2-3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) will concentrate in northern Minnesota. I still have a 1 in 3 chance for a Friday night shower or thunderstorm in St. Cloud.

Fire Danger Will Increase During Hot, Breezy Weekend

The lack of rain and hotter, breezier conditions expected over the weekend will increase the threat to either spread the current wildfires or start new ones (biggest problems will continue to be in northern Minnesota). Even any thunderstorms that don't produce much rain could trigger more wildfires through lightning strikes. We just don't have a major rainfall threat on the horizon to ease the dry conditions.

Above Average Temperatures Next Week, Uncertain (But Small) Storm Chances

The long-range forecast shows that the hottest of the hot air will retreat a bit southward early next week due to a series of low pressure systems moving through the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces. However, the computer forecasts can't agree on which system would pass when or what areas would have the best shot at the rain. We still wouldn't have a great supply of moisture, so the precipitation potential isn't great even where rain is forecast (see Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). There's a better chance for high temperatures in the 80's to near 90 rather than well up in the 90's, but that would depend on the timing of each system.