St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Warning for Fire Danger Today...

The weather pattern will bring the strong storm off the Pacific Northwest (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor satellite loop) to the Canadian Prairie Provinces by Friday. The approach of this storm will crank up the winds and the heat today, once again producing extreme fire danger for much of Minnesota today. 

...Thunderstorm Watch and Warnings Likely Tomorrow

The weather threat tomorrow will switch to thunderstorms tomorrow with some threat of severe weather, but it won't be as great as it was on April 13. More importantly, there will be the potential of significant rainfall in much of central and eastern Minnesota tomorrow from midday on.

Even Warmer and Windier Today, Setting off Fire Warnings

The set-up for today's fire danger will be similar to what we saw Monday. Yesterday's temperatures managed to get into the 70's (see 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), warmer than Monday despite lighter winds. St. Cloud topped out at 74 degrees, nearly a 40 degree climb from the morning low (see 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperature from MesoWest). Central Minnesota is again clear (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) with light winds (see stations with double circles on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), but the approach of the West Coast storm will crank the southeast winds up to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts this afternoon. The stronger winds will also help temperatures climb into the 80's in much of central and southern Minnesota. St. Cloud's April 22 record warm high is 86 degrees, so we have a long shot at getting close to the record.

The dew points will edge up through the 40's as the afternoon goes on, but the relative humidity will low enough to have the National Weather Service issue a red flag warning, the highest level of fire danger, for most of western Minnesota and the western two-thirds of central and eastern Minnesota. The rest of Minnesota is under a fire weather watch and will have at least very high fire danger. Outdoor burning should be avoided until we have less windy conditions on Friday.

Mother Nature flipped the switch to warm and windy yesterday afternoon  as highs reached the 60's after more than a 40-degree swing from the morning lows in the lower 20's (see red line on the 7-day St. Cloud temperature and moisture graph from MesoWest). However, the dew points remained in the teens and the 20's (see blue line on the 7-day St. Cloud temperature and moisture graph from MesoWest), thus, the extreme fire danger in southern and central Minnesota.

Thursday: Severe Weather Threat (Not Quite as High as April 13, 17); Better Chance for Helpful Rain

The potential for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday appears to look even more favorable than it did a couple of days ago. The cold front being pulled by the low pressure system off the West Coast (now is scheduled to push through central Minnesota early Thursday evening. While showers and thunderstorms will develop as early as midday, there will be a better chance of significant showers and thunderstorms in central and eastern Minnesota during the afternoon, perhaps lingering into the evening hours. There will be a severe weather threat, mainly in south central, east central, and southeastern Minnesota (see NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 2 convective outlook). The main severe weather concern is large hail early in the storms with damaging winds developing as the afternoon goes on. There is a chance for a tornado or two. Overall, the severe weather threat (category 2 out of 5) isn't quite as high as it was last Friday (category 3 of 5), during the Rochester tornado, or in southern Minnesota (also category 3 of 5) on April 13.

It now appears that there is the potential for areas to get hit by multiple storms during the afternoon and evening. That raises the chances for helpful significant rainfall in much of central and eastern Minnesota (see Day 2 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). 

Friday and Weekend Cooler

After the cold front goes by Thursday evening, the low pressure system will stall in the Canadian Prairie Provinces through the weekend. The north to northeast flow will bring the much cooler air around Hudson Bay (see 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) into Minnesota. That air will be heated by a higher sun angle, so I think we will still see above average highs in the upper 50's or lower 60's Friday through Sunday, but that will be 15-25 degrees cooler than today's high and 15-20 degrees cooler than tomorrow's high. Lows could get to freezing if we have a clear and calm night (best chance on Friday night into early Saturday).

Potential Monday Plains Storm Could Bring More Rain

The next potential significant rainfall threat still appears to be sometime between Sunday and Monday. The computer forecasts have a better agreement about a potential storm working from the Alaska area (see counterclockwise circulation on the Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) now to the central Plains by Monday. This system would have still have summer-like humidity available along its southern flank, so there would be the potential of heavy rainfall from the south central Plains northward and eastward. Minnesota would be on the cooler side of this system, so the threat of severe weather would be to our south, but we could see steady rain as much as showers, which would really help the dry soil. I wouldn't take the heavy rain amounts shown on Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast to the bank yet, since there are still major timing differences (as early as Sunday afternoon, as late as Monday) and location differences (position of the storm differs by a state) for this storm.