St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

I'd Taken My Eyes Off Fire Danger, But Now Boundary Waters Has Fire Problems

Despite more rain in much of Minnesota during the past month (large swaths of red, meaning at least 5 inches of rain, when you set NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota rainfall map to yesterday's date, and last 30 days), note that rainfall has been under 3 inches, yellow, in northern Minnesota with parts of the Boundary Waters Canoe Wilderness Area with under 2 inches, green.

The EPA fire and smoke map shows the latest wildfires north of Ely. The Thumb fire is the one actively burning and was triggered by a lightning strike. There are also wildfires in the Quetico Provincial Park in Ontario. If you zoom out on this map, you can see the large swath of wildfires from Nunavut through northern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario. That's in addition to the wildfires in northern New Mexico, western Colorado, Utah, and the Pacific Northwest (see FIRMS US/Canada North America wildfire map).

The fire danger has been elevated near the Canadian border again due to the hot temperatures and lack of rain. And, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources has banned campfires in forested areas of Cook, Lake, and northern St. Louis Counties and has restricted fireworks.

Several entrances to the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness were closed due to the wildfires burning. And the ban on campfires has been put up again.

90's (With 100+ Heat Indices) Reached Northern Minnesota Yesterday

The hot high pressure area is centered in southern Arizona (see center of clockwise circulation on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop). However, the large flow of air down the eastern slopes of the Rockies on the north side of the high has pushed the storm track well into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. So, the hottest air (see daytime gray to the west and south of the black on the College of DuPage continental US clean infrared satellite loop) is actually to our northwest. Note that high temperatures were in the 90's yesterday throughout North Dakota and even in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba (see yesterday's 4 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). Note in Minnesota that it was hotter in the northern part of the state and into Ontario, where highs broke 90, than in the central and southern parts of the state (set time to 20-22Z, 3-5 PM CDT, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Being closer to the few patchy thunderstorms either on the Canadian border or in Manitoba also meant that the afternoon dew points were in the oppressive low to middle 70's in northern Minnesota (number at lower left on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), pushing the heat indices over 100 in northwestern Minnesota and even Fergus Falls (set time to 3-5 PM on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). In St. Cloud and vicinity, dew points were in the middle to upper 60's, still uncomfortable but short of Florida levels. The high temperature was 88 degrees, so afternoon heat indices were in the lower 90's (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations).

Florida-Like Humidity Has Spread into Much of Minnesota

Overnight, more of the 70-plus dew point have spread through Minnesota (see dark orange on the UCAR hourly dew point chart). That means low temperatures are likely to remain in the 70's overnight. For people without air conditioning or fans, the toll is greater when the low temperatures creep into the 70's or higher.

Sun-Mon Nt Extreme Heat Warning in Central, Northern Minnesota; Heat Advisory to South

The worst of the heat is expected today through at least Tuesday. The trend of the heat being worse northern Minnesota and the Dakotas will continue through this outbreak. The National Weather Service has an extreme heat warning (red) in northern Minnesota from Elbow Lake and Fergus Falls and Brainerd to Hinckley northward to the Canadian border. The warning extends throughout North Dakota and northern Wisconsin. The heat indices are likely to be in the 100's. Today and tomorrow, that even includes the Lake Superior shore.

Much of northeastern Minnesota also have a red flag warning, the highest category of fire danger this afternoon (you can't see this area on the NWS Duluth watch-warning map because of the extreme heat warning). This red flag warning (expect red areas when this Minnesota DNR fire danger map is updated) is likely to be for a larger part of northern Minnesota tomorrow when the winds are expected to be stronger (fire weather watch for tomorrow at this point).

There is a heat advisory (orange) in central Minnesota south of Fergus Falls, Brainerd, and Hinckley into the Minnesota River Valley. That includes the entire Twin Cities area, St. Cloud, and Alexandria. Heat indices are likely to be in the upper 90's, perhaps brushing 100 (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for latest temperatures, dew points, and heat index when it is in the upper 80's or higher).

And, This Will Likely Be Extended to Tuesday When It Gets in Range

There is a good chance that the heat continues into Tuesday at least. The National Weather Service doesn't have any warnings out for Tuesday yet, only because they tend not to issue any warnings until we get within a day of the hot period. If anything, it appears that our air will come from further south than tomorrow. We might have slightly lower dew points, but highs will probably stay in the 90's, so this weather will qualify as a heat wave (at least 3 straight days with highs in the 90's).

This heat wave could last much of this work week, so going a long time without cooling off will be a major problem for people without access to a cool area. 

Reminder of Safety Steps

Again, the NWS Heat Risk Forecast shows red and purple in most of Minnesota through Tuesday and parts of Minnesota through Friday. Here are the safety steps for intense heat and how to protect residents from overexposure to the sun. Here is a link to the Mayo Clinic's heat awareness page. This weather produces more deaths than any other weather-related phenomenon in the US. Every one of those deaths can be avoided by getting people to a cool shelter.

If you're in northern Minnesota where air conditioning is harder to find, or camping, it would be a good idea to change your plans to take advantage of somewhere cooler.

Relief Comes Tuesday Night? Not That Much Cooler

The first sign of any cold front nearby won't happen until Wednesday. That could bring a small chance for showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night or early Wednesday, but any storms will be battling limited moisture above the ground and a plume of high temperatures at 5,000 to 10,000 feet above the ground. So, I only have a 1 in 5 chance for storms on Tuesday night.

Wednesday Could Also Bring Smoke into Central and Southern Minnesota

Behind the cold front on Wednesday, the flow will turn to the north or northwest. The air in southern Canada won't be much cooler than what we have today through Tuesday, but I have a 50-50 chance of another 90-degree high. Close to the front, we still may have oppressive humidity. However, we could also see some of that smoke from the Canadian and northern Minnesota fires push further to the south, so it will likely be hazy. It's too early to be sure of any air quality issues, but the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency is watching the situation. Other fires could develop due to the heat.

Wednesday Nt-Early Thursday: Maybe a Storm? Then, Return to the 90's??

The latest forecasts have the really hot air, which will be pushed back into the Dakotas, trying to surge into Minnesota on Wednesday night and Thursday. I have my highest chance for a shower or thunderstorm (1 in 3 shot) during that period. If we don't have a lot of smoke or lingering clouds, highs could again surge well into the 90's, but that's an iffy forecast.

Real Relief? Weekend Could Be Cooler, But That's Iffy

Right now, the long-range forecasts are showing the possibility of the high drifting further to the southwest. That could allow an eastern Pacific storm to push a stronger cold front through Minnesota. The computer forecasts are wide apart on where that storm will be and even the direction it will be moving. They agree on pushing the extreme heat out of Minnesota by next weekend, but I don't have a lot of confidence in that forecast right now.