Wednesday, February 11, 2026  1:30 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Hearts Won't Be the Only Thing Warming Either Side of Valentine's Day

I admire my wife, Janet, for many aspects (her kindness, values, determination, empathy, among others). I also respect her ability to put up with the side effects of being married to a meteorologist: listening to "what's the latest forecast from your husband," or "tell your husband we're tired of the cold." Janet had back surgery this week (it went fine and she's now home), but my forecast has been missing because my number one priority is aiding her recovery. There may be a few more outages depending on how much help she needs on any given day. So, sorry for that.

Finally an End to the Yukon Express

The satellite imagery over the past day (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) is now showing a major change from the persistent northwest-to-southeast flow that brought in the second-half-of-January cold and even some of the early moderation in early February (since the severely cold air had been emptied from central Canada; use left arrow to go back in time on the Alicia Bentley Northern Hemisphere 850 mb equivalent potential temperature map). A major storm is hitting the West Coast College of DuPage North America clean infrared loop) and the steering winds from the Pacific Northwest along the US-Canada border to the Great Lakes are mostly west-to-east. 

So, Milder Recently....

Thus far, this flow has been bringing in air dragged down the eastern slopes of the Rockies, allowing two interludes of above freezing temperatures (see 14-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). Our latest peak of 36 degrees was reached Monday evening and remained there past midnight, so it was the high temperature for both Monday and Tuesday. Our midday high yesterday was merely 31 degrees, but the return of a good sunshine supply favored at least some melting. We are still dealing with the snow cover that was put down from the pair of snowstorms we had during Thanksgiving week (last two days of November also produced 3.2 inches of snow). The streak of consecutive days with at least an inch of snow on the ground has now extended to 78 days (from November 26 through this morning), approaching the typical cold season consecutive days of snow-on-the-ground streak (average is 86 days).

...And Even Milder Friday into Next Week

However, the current pattern is likely to continue our streak of daytime above freezing temperatures with frequent highs in the 40's (Thursday through Saturday, possibly today and Sunday, and again early next week). That could get rid of the snow, especially if we get sunshine, rather than low clouds. The winds are expected to be light from Friday on, so there will be a chance for low clouds. 

If we get on the sunnier and warmer side, some Minnesota cities may have a shot at record high temperatures. The Valentine's Day record high in the Twin Cities is only 50 degrees, but St. Cloud has a 52 degree record. I would be more confident of getting to a record if the snow cover was gone and we had a bit more wind.

...But This Mild Interlude Could Give Way to Colder Weather Later in February

I have seen some really long-range forecasts, indicating a colder pattern during the second half of February. I wouldn't trust any specific forecast (certainly not a single temperature number) at this point, but the arctic air has been replenished over northwestern Canada (temperatures in the -30's and even -40's from northern Alaska into the Yukon and Northwest Territories; see yesterday's 3 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). It's way too soon to say that the arctic air would hit the US as hard as our January outbreak, but I can't rule out another wave of significant cold (highs near or below zero, lows well below zero) for the rest of the cold season.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Wednesday 2/11/2026: Cloudy through the morning, maybe some afternoon sun, light winds, and continued mild. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: light S. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy and continued mild. Low: between 18 and 23. Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Thursday 2/12/2026: Some early clouds, perhaps some afternoon sun, and a bit milder. High: between 36 and 42. Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Thursday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, perhaps some fog, and even milder. Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 0%.

Friday 2/13/2026: Sunshine through high clouds and quite mild. High: between 42 and 47 (record warm high: 55, set in 1908). Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head"

Friday Night: Partly cloudy with light winds and perhaps some fog. Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Saturday 2/14/2026: Partly sunny and even milder. High: between 42 and 47 (record warm high: 52, set in 1921). Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Saturday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and mild again. Low: between 23 and 28. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Sunday 2/15/2026: Mixed sunshine and high clouds and not quite as mild. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: NW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Extended: Temperatures continued above average through early next week (40's? 50's?)??? Better but uncertain chance of precipitation during the second half of next work week???

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 9 Friday, 8 Friday night and Saturday, 7 Saturday night and Sunday, 5 Sunday night through Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday. 

Yesterday's High: 36°F (set at midnight Monday night); Yesterday's Daytime High: 33°F; Overnight Low (through 1 AM Wednesday): 20°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 1 AM Wednesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 1 AM Wednesday): None

Next Update: Thursday, February 12, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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