St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Friday, March 13, 2026 2:10 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Even Less Certain About Major Weekend Snowstorm

Trend for Weekend Snowfall: Heavy Snowfall Possible, but Not Confident About Where in Central and Southern Minnesota.

I now have the butterfly effect going in my storm in trying to forecast the weekend storm. The computer runs over the past 24 hours have been very inconsistent, alternating between pushing the heaviest snow band both to the north and the south. The change of the snow band position over the past 24 hours has definitely been northward, with the literal position of the latest forecast in the Twin Cities and the Minnesota River Valley. The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch in much of central and southern Minnesota for Saturday night through Monday covering most of Minnesota south of St. Cloud to the Iowa border (it's underneath the high wind warning, so click on the winter storm watch link at right).

However, I don't trust the back and forth trend, especially when the initial storm is still located off-shore from southeastern Alaska and far northern British Columbia (see counterclockwise rotation on the Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). Using the confidence scale I apply to my forecast details below, I would say the following:

• 10 of 10: Confidence in 1-2 feet snowfall over Wisconsin Sunday and Monday
• 8 of 10: Confidence in 10+ inch snowfall band somewhere in central and southern Minnesota
• 10 of 10: Near impossible travel conditions where the heaviest snowfalls and after due to another round of extreme winds (probably Sat Night through Monday).
• 7 of 10: Bulk of Minnesota heaviest snow falls from Saturday evening to Sunday midday, perhaps remaining Sunday afternoon
• 6 of 10: Minnesota River Valley (Marshall, Redwood Falls, Mankato) get into the heaviest snow band
• 5 of 10: Twin Cities, southern Minnesota (I-90 corridor) end up in the heaviest snow band
• 4 of 10: St. Cloud and Alexandria get a plowable snowfall (at least 3 inches)
• 2 of 10: St. Cloud and Alexandria get into the heaviest snow band
• 0.5 of 10: St. Cloud and Alexandria get little or no snow.
• 5 of 10: Brainerd and Little Falls get some snow
• 1 of 10: Brainerd and Little Falls get plowable snowfall

So, the snowfall I have listed in my detailed forecast below is very uncertain. I think my total adds up to between 3 and 8 inches in St. Cloud, but my confidence in any NCAA bracket sheet is much higher than that accumulation right now.

Caution: because the computer forecasts have placed the heaviest snowfall in so many places, I guarantee that someone in just about any town in the southern half of Minnesota can post on social media a whopping snowfall (1-2 feet).

If you are on social media, someone in just about any town in the southern half of Minnesota the forecast of the heaviest snowband. 

Today: Tapering NE Snow, High Wind Gusts

Before the weekend storm, we have to deal with the storm moving through central Minnesota during the early morning hours (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor satellite loop). It dropped some light mixed precipitation in central Minnesota last evening (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop), which has melted during the middle of the night, thanks to mild air coming in on the southwestern flank of the low (see temperatures in the upper 30's to middle 40's between 06Z, 1 AM CDT, and the current time on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR menu). However, the precipitation was mostly snow across northern and northeastern Minnesota, with major accumulation (Brainerd had 3 inches and the National Weather Service in Duluth had 6.3 inches of new snow as of 1 AM). The MnDOT Minnesota road reports show snow-covered roads to the north of Little Falls.

On the western side of the low, the west to northwest winds are really strong, causing the NWS high wind warning in the southern two-thirds of Minnesota. Expect wind gusts of 50-70 MPH from midnight through the late morning hours (see latest visibility and wind speeds on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). There are blizzard warnings where there was substantial snow in the Red River Valley and from Duluth and Cloquet through the Lake Superior North Shore. 

High Winds During and After Weekend Snow

The weekend snowstorm is forecast to get to Lower Michigan by Monday (at least there is agreement on that factor), but the storm will rapidly intensify on Sunday, so there will be another bout of very strong winds during and after the weekend snow moves out of Minnesota (still lingering in southeastern Minnesota into Sunday evening in some forecasts). That means any area with either major snowfall or deep snow already on the ground (mainly northern Minnesota on the NWS NOHRSC snow depth chart, which doesn't include last night's snow) will have lingering problems of low visibility in drifting snow. This will likely last Sunday night into Monday.

Again, if you have any major travel plans in southern Minnesota and Wisconsin from Saturday night through Monday, I would go before the snow starts tomorrow or postpone it well into next week.

The Rest of Winter Strikes Back Sunday Night Through Tuesday

This time, the strong winds will also blow much colder air, so Monday and Tuesday will feel like a cold spell in January or February. Temperatures are likely to fall into the plus single digits by Monday morning with wind chills of between -20 and -5 bordering on the seriously cold levels. High temperatures will only recover to the teens during Monday afternoon. The winds are forecast to calm on Monday night, so low temperatures will be in the minus single digits with perhaps a few minus teens in areas with the deepest snow cover.

Warm-up Beyond Depends on Where the Snow Cover Will Be

As I noted yesterday, the rest of next week will push milder air from the west back towards Minnesota. However, our warm-up will be delayed, since the south to southeast winds will blow from the snow-covered areas somewhere in central and southern Minnesota. I still only expect highs in the teens on Tuesday, then how mild we get is uncertain during the rest of next week. 

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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