St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

When I moved to Minnesota nearly 38 years ago, a colleague quickly described a year in Minnesota with two seasons: shovel and swat. I am not sure how clean the transition is from one to the other, but I saw the swat begin last Friday with the first few gnats. With the mid-week temperature trend being milder than expected late last week (high yesterday remained in the 60's; see 21Z, 4 PM CDT NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), you might think that we have completely made the transition.

Temperatures Very Warm, Peaking Thursday and Thursday Night, Then Much Colder Friday PM through Saturday...

The details of the forecast show an even warmer Thursday with the potential for highs well into the 70's and perhaps to 80. However, the next major temperature change will now come earlier on Friday, with the cold front expected some time during the morning, either pre-dawn or shortly after the morning rush. So, Friday will no longer have a shot at an 80 degree high, except perhaps in southeastern Minnesota. Temperatures will begin in the 50's or lower 60's early Friday morning, but fall back to the 40's by midday.

...But Little Chance for Shovel Saturday

However, the upper air low due to push through Minnesota on Saturday is now expected to be a bit weaker and not get as far to the south. That means only a 1 in 5 chance of seeing some snow flakes in the St. Cloud area with a 30-40 percent chance of a brief accumulation in northern Minnesota (see Days 4-5 of the NWS Days 4-7 winter weather outlook). So, I am not seeing a relapse of shovel this week, but temperatures will be 30 degrees colder than on Thursday with highs of 40 or even the upper 30's on Saturday and highs in the 40's on Sunday. 

Winds will be very strong from midday Friday through Saturday, so wind chills will brush the teens by early Saturday and remain in the teens and 20's during the daylight hours. And, we will have a shot at sub-freezing lows at least Saturday and Sunday mornings.

Next Warm-Up Monday into at Least Thursday

We will see yet another rapid temperature rebound back to the near average 50's by Monday with potentially warmer temperatures during the middle of next week.

Ice Out, Greening Proceeding Slowly

The on-and-off warm-up is making slow progress for ice out in Minnesota lakes is slowly progressing in the smaller lakes of central Minnesota. 

The slow progress of greening in the St. Cloud area made me check the frost depth in central Minnesota. The road sensor in west central Minnesota (Ottertail) has the deep frost depth on the verge of disappearing, but the on-and-off cold and snow has put some near surface frost back in the ground at times.

Not Much Rain Potential During the Next 8 Days

So, the delay of greening is most likely a reflection of the dry conditions we had last fall. And, the set-up for severe storms on Monday, which did produce 3 southern Minnesota tornadoes and several large hail reports, did not produce heavy rainfall across most of Minnesota (on the NWS Water Prediction Service 7-day rainfall chart through Tuesday morning; set date to yesterday and time to last 7 days). Since the data cut-off for tomorrow's update of the US Drought Monitor is Tuesday morning, we won't see further improvement of the drought status this week. On top of that, the faster Friday front means that the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms will develop from eastern Minnesota to Wisconsin, so the rain potential appears to be lower (see Day 3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). I don't see a chance for significant precipitation down the road until at least Friday of next week. 

And, all of that wind coming from tomorrow through Saturday could still produce major fire danger issues, especially in the drier areas of northern and southwestern Minnesota. There is already a fire weather watch in effect for Thursday in most of South Dakota.

Warm Season Severe Weather Awareness Week

Warm Season Severe Weather Awareness Week continues in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and South Dakota. The Minnesota statewide tornado drill will take place twice tomorrow afternoon and evening.