Monday, December 1, 2025  3:05 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

A Taste of a La Nina Winter?

Solid Snow Cover Brings Range of Emotions, But I've Been Close to Pure Joy

After the pair of storms, much of Minnesota now has a significant snow cover, along with the area from North Dakota through much of Iowa, then into Michigan. I get a lot of different feedback about a decent snow cover, from those skies and snowmobilers who have suffered through the past two relatively snow-less winters to people who would rather spend the winter in Arizona or Florida. There is more sentiment for snow on the ground in December than in January (I've had people tell me they only wish for three weeks of snow cover, which would be gone in January).

However, I am spending a second cold season watching nothing but joy about the snow. That joy comes from the dogs I walk at the Tri-County Humane Society twice a week. The thirteen dogs I walked on Friday exhibited happiness from extreme tail wagging as soon as I got to each dog's kennel, to all kinds of reaction when going through the outside door. The reaction of each dog getting outside was different; one dog dug his nose into the snow then jumped into the air to knock it off his nose. Some dogs ate the snow and other dogs took time to deeply smell the snow and the wet grass underneath. One dog, who had been fighting heartworm and wasn't spending much time outside, couldn't wait to get outside and prance around, feeling both much better and also excited about the snow. I had my glasses knocked into the snow about 6 times, but I've bathed in the joy all weekend and can't wait for tomorrow's next shift.

Snow Cover Has Helped to Produce First Sub-Zero Low of Season

Having fairly significant snow cover is a major temperature factor for the cold season, since the snow is so good at reflecting sunshine back to space. Rod Kubesh found that the air temperature in a similar air mass is about 11 degrees colder over a snow cover than over bare ground. For us, the presence of the snow didn't stop highs from climbing into the 20's yesterday afternoon (see yesterday's 3 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), but the clear skies (see College of DuPage shortwave infrared satellite loop showing the bare spots of the Missouri River and the Minnesota lakes overnight) has given St. Cloud its first sub-zero low (average season total: 43 days)  of the season (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). This colder than average air will produce a high in the upper teens today, another low near zero tomorrow, and a high around 20 on Tuesday.

Current Northwest-to-Southeast Flow Pattern is What Long-Range Forecasters Are Counting On This Winter

If the current northwest-to-southeast flow pattern over North America (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) persisted, the winter would end up colder than average in the Plains, like a typical La Nina pattern. However, this is expected to be a relatively weak La Nina event that will weaken further by the start of 2026. On top of that, water temperatures are milder than average in both the north Pacific and north Atlantic. And there has been a slow start to the snow season in much of the Canadian Prairies (see that current snow cover has only filled the spotty coat as recently as 5 days ago).

Coldest Air Entering North America Will Swoop Towards Minnesota for Wednesday and Thursday...

We will continue in this northwest flow pattern through the week. That will tap some really cold air that has finally arrived along the north central Canadian arctic islands through Nunavut to the west shore of Hudson Bay (see high temperatures in the minus teens and minus 20's yesterday afternoon on the NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). That really cold air will surge into south central Canada by Tuesday night with the leading edge of it moving into Minnesota by Wednesday morning (use right arrow to step forward in time and follow the dark blues on the Alicia Bentley 850 mb anomaly forecast map). However, this early version of the coldest air in North America will move rapidly into Quebec and the Northeast. Also, the coldest of the cold air may only brush northeastern Minnesota on Wednesday night. In central Minnesota, I only have about 36 hours in this cold. Temperatures will spend most of Tuesday night in the 20's with a chance for some light snow accumulating to between a dusting and perhaps an inch or two. Readings will fall back through the teens Wednesday morning into the plus single digits during the afternoon with wind chills in the -25 to -10 range (at this point in the winter, I am no longer mentioning wind chills milder than -20, since only wind chills that cold can cause frostbite after exposure of 30 minutes). Wednesday night will be another sub-zero low as the winds calm. Low temperatures may drop into the minus teens or, if a light breeze remains, wind chills could drop to around -25. But, milder air will move in aloft on Thursday. Our high will only get to around +10 by afternoon, but temperatures are likely to hold in the teens Thursday night. We could return to highs in the 20's by Friday.

...But Move Out by Thursday Night

Our flow pattern will continue to be northwest-to-southeast late in the week, but the strongest flow will be off to our east, so we will be near the transition zone between the arctic cold and milder than average air. However, the forecast of storm systems along this temperature contrast is really uncertain, so the timing and strength of any storm and any narrow band of accumulating snow (see Days 4-7 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) is uncertain for the weekend. That also makes the temperature forecast iffy; I've put out only another shot at highs in the 20's for Saturday.

Links to Ground and Air Travel Conditions

I will be on duty through the weekend, since the busy travel season continues. As usual, I will have the following link of ground and air travel links all week.

• Ground Travel
  • Minnesota
  • Surrounding States
    • Iowa
    • North Dakota
    • South Dakota
    • Nebraska
    • Wisconsin
    • Michigan
  • Surrounding Provinces
    • Manitoba
    • Ontario
• Air Travel
  • Flight Aware Misery Map
  • Flight Aware Delays and Cancellations

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Monday 12/1/2025: Sunny during the morning, mixed clouds and sun during the afternoon, and breezy with continued January-like cold. High: between 15 and 20. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, light winds, and cold again. Low: near 0. Winds: SW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Tuesday 12/2/2025: Morning sunshine, afternoon clouds, and not quite as cold. Perhaps a stray snow flurry. High: between 18 and 23. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with a chance for light snow or flurries and not as cold. Any accumulation will be limited to between a dusting and 2 inches. Turning windy late at night. Temperatures holding in the 20's much of the night before returning to teens by morning. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH evening, shifting to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts during the early morning hours. Some low visibility due to blowing snow in open areas. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Wednesday 12/3/2025: Mixed clouds and some sunny breaks with a few flurries possible. Windy and turning much colder with serious afternoon wind chill. Low visibility due to blowing snow possible in open areas. Temperatures falling through the teens during the morning, in the plus single digits during the afternoon. Winds: NW 15-25 MPH through midday, 10-20 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -15 and +5 during the morning, between -25 and -10 during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Clear with diminishing wind and possibly the coldest night of the season so far. Low: between -13 and -5. Winds: NW 5 MPH, becoming SW during the early morning hours. Wind chill in the minus teens and -20s through midnight. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday 12/4/2025: Sunshine through high clouds through midday. Cloudy during the afternoon with a slight chance for a snow flurry. Windy and continued cold. High: between 8 and 13. Winds: S 8-15 MPH during the morning, SE 10-20 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -20 and -5 during the morning, in the minus single digits during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Thursday Night: Cloudy and not nearly as cold. A chance for a snow flurry. Temperatures holding in the teens. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH, becoming NW 5-10 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Friday 12/5/2025: Cloudy, not as breezy, and not as cold. Maybe a snow flurry. High: between 20 and 25. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Extended: Next chance for accumulating snow Friday night into Saturday??? Continued colder than average through the weekend???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Monday through Tuesday, 5 Tuesday night, 7 Wednesday through Thursday, 5 Thursday night and Friday.

Yesterday's High: 21°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Monday): -2°F;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): None

Next Update: Tuesday, December 2, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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