Thursday, February 19, 2026  6:00 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Slow Return to Seasonable Cold After Missing Most of Snow

Northeastern Minnesota Got Clobbered With Snow and Wind...

Yesterday's storm spent the entire day drifting through central Minnesota and into western Wisconsin (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). The most frozen precipitation was generally from Hwy. 2 northward (at least 4 inches of snow on the NWS Twin Cities snowfall map). The North Shore generally had more than a foot of snow with Hovland reporting 34 inches. The heavy wet snow combined with high winds knocked out power to as many as 11,000 customers. Wind gusts were as high as 66 MPH on the Blatnik Bridge connecting Duluth and Superior and as high as 59 MPH in Marshall and 62 MPH in Trosky (see gray dots on the NWS Twin Cities storm reports map).

...But Areas Further South of St. Cloud Picked Up Plowable Snow Yesterday

The southwestern flank of the storm had the most persistent precipitation yesterday (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop), but that area ended up being further to the south than forecast. So, Winthrop, Granite Falls, and the Twin Cities ended up with between 3 and 7 inches of snow through late afternoon or early evening. And, the snow has continued into the early morning hours, so some areas will end up with between 6 and 10 inches of snow.

The MnDOT Minnesota road reports show that the worst driving conditions are along the North Shore (no travel advised on I-35 between Cloquet and Duluth as of midnight) and along the swath from the Red River Valley through central Minnesota to the south of Sauk Centre and Richmond, through Litchfield and Willmar to the Minnesota River Valley, then eastward to the southern portion of the Twin Cities.

Wet Spots Will Be Icy This Morning

The St. Cloud area had the lingering light rain turn over to snow yesterday morning, but only had occasional snow showers, producing merely a couple of dustings of snow. I measured 0.2 inch of snow early this morning. The temperatures dropping below freezing (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) means that any untreated surfaces, like sidewalks, driveways, and parking areas, will have icy spots.

Second Storm to Barely Brush SE MN, But Snow Will Go On in Arrowhead 

I've been mentioning a second potential storm this week. That system is now in Nevada (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) with some snow in the central Rockies (see College of DuPage continental US radar loop). That system will move into the central Plains tonight into tomorrow, but the southward trend of snowfall continued over the past day. Now, it appears that only south central and southeastern Minnesota have a shot at between 1 and 3 inches of snow (see tab to 18 UTC, noon CST, Friday on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). There is even a chance that the snow will be mostly in Iowa, rather than Minnesota. In the St. Cloud area, I only have a chance for a few flurries.

The main threat for accumulating snow will be along the Gunflint Trail and the eastern end of the North Shore (note the chance for between 1 and 4 inches each day using the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance by setting the tab at 00 UTC Fri, Sat, and Sun, which is 6 PM Thurs, Fri, and Sat).

Returning to Seasonable Cold Tomorrow Through Weekend

The main trend in central Minnesota will be slowly turning colder (highs in the 30's today, the seasonable 20's Friday, Saturday, Monday, and the teens to near 20 on Sunday) and breezy through Saturday. Some wind chills will be below zero on Saturday and Sunday nights.  

Typical Cold Season Streak of Snow Cover Ends

The mild conditions finally ended our consecutive day streak of at least an inch of snow cover (November 26 through February 16). The 83-day streak is 3 days short of the typical cold season period with a snow cover. The February St. Cloud average temperature through February 16 is also the mildest we will see (25.3 degrees, 11.3 degrees above average), since yesterday into early next week will be cooler. However, there is a chance for milder weather at times next week as well.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"  

Thursday 2/19/2026: Mostly cloudy and not as windy with occasional flurries. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy and windy with a few evening flurries. Low: between 20 and 25. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH evening, 10-20 MPH early morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Friday 2/20/2026: Mostly cloudy, windy, and colder. Perhaps a stray snowflake. High: between 23 and 28. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Partial clearing, still breezy, and colder. Maybe a flurry. Low: between 10 and 15. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -10 and +5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 2/21/2026: Mixed clouds and sun, maybe an occasional flurry, still breezy, and seasonably cold. High: between 20 and 25. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head" 

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, still breezy, and even colder. Low: between 7 and 12. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -10 and 0. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 2/22/2026: Partly sunny with a slight chance for a flurry and continued cold. High: between 15 and 20. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday Night: Partly clear, less breezy, and colder. Low: between 5 and 10. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH evening, NW 5-10 MPH early morning. Wind chill: between -15 and 0. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 2/23/2026: Sunshine through high clouds, not as breezy, and a return to seasonable cold. High: between 20 and 26. Winds: S 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"   

Extended: Milder Tuesday with perhaps some light snow, then a bit cooler Wednesday?? Mild late next week??? 

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Thursday, 7 Thursday night and Friday, 6 Friday night and Saturday, 5 Saturday night and Sunday, 4 Sunday night and Monday, 3 Tuesday. 

Yesterday's High: 37°F (set at midnight-1 AM Wednesday); Yesterday's Daytime High: 36°F; Overnight Low (through 6 AM Thursday): 29°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 6 AM Thursday): 0.08 inch (2-day total: 0.45 inch); SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 6 AM Thursday): 0.37 inch/0.2 inch snow

Next Update: Friday, February 20, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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