St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Both Shovel and Swat in Rain Gauge Sunday Morning

When I got to the St. Cloud State University rain gauge early yesterday morning, I found evidence of both shovel and swat. There was a quarter inch of snow on the grass. And, on the bottom of the gauge, there were half a dozen gnats caught in a puddle that had frozen. The snow ran our seasonal snowfall total to 41.6 inches, still 5.0 inches below average.

Is it over yet? Janet, my wife, immediately went to her stand-by story of moving from one apartment to another during the first weekend of May after a snow storm. The record for the latest significant snowfall was 3.2 inches on May 19, 1971. However, there have been only 18 May measurable snowfalls over the 121 seasons of snowfall records. On the other hand, I helped Janet move her stuff with snow and ice on the ground in October. The record for earliest season snowfall is 0.2 inch on September 21, 1995. There has only been one another measurable snowfall in September.

As we have seen, there is still enough cooler air in Canada to have the precipitation turn to snow on the northern fringe of any major storm. 

Fire Issues Today Through Wednesday (Extreme Danger Today)

The major weather-related problem this work week will be the extreme fire danger. Over the past two weeks (on the NWS Water Prediction Service precipitation map, set date to yesterday and time period to last 14 days), most of western and central Minnesota missed the bulk of the precipitation with only a small part of eastern Minnesota seeing at least an inch. So, any warm and windy day with low dew points will elevated the fire danger. 

The high pressure area over the western US (clockwise circulation on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) will edge eastward, spreading warmer and dry weather today through Wednesday.

The National Weather Service has a red flag warning, the highest category of fire danger, for west central, central, southwestern, and south central Minnesota. This includes the St. Cloud area. A fire weather watch (orange) is in effect for northern, western, and central Minnesota, which will likely be upgraded to a red flag warning later this morning (see Minnesota fire danger map when it is updated later this morning). That's because highs will generally be in the 60's with strong southwest winds. Tomorrow, the fire danger will likely be high to very high. Temperatures will be in the 60's again, but the winds won't be as strong.

We will also have extreme fire danger on Wednesday on another windy and even warmer day (highs near or above 80) on Wednesday. We will have noticeable humidity on Thursday, so a warm day (highs in the 70's) won't be quite as dry.

Significant Rainfall? Maybe Not??

The main precipitation chance this week will come primarily on Thursday as the low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) pushes into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. At this point, the front is expected to come through central Minnesota during the middle of the day, so the strongest showers and thunderstorms may be off to our east (see Days 4-5 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), much like they were on Friday. The early snow outlook from this storm keeps the threat in Canada (see Days 5-6 of the NWS WPC Days 4-7 Winter Weather Forecast)

Weekend Cooler

Behind the Thursday front, high temperatures will return to the near average 50's. We could see highs limited to the 40's on at least one weekend day. The air will again dry out, so below freezing temperatures may be possible.