St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Wednesday, March 4, 2026 1:20 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

More Mild Days Through Sunday, Uncertain Precipitation Chances Fri-Sat

Sorry for the outage twice in less than a week. The February weather summary took a lot of time to prepare. 

February Undoes Much of Early Winter

As noted in the now posted St. Cloud February 2026 and Winter 2025-2026 weather summary, February's warmth cancelled out the colder than average December and January, so the meteorological winter (Dec. 1-Feb. 28, the three coldest months of the year) ended up a fraction of a degree milder than average. Still, the extreme temperature days (highs of zero or colder, lows of -20 or colder) were near average, thanks to the cold outbreak during the second half of January. Even though the snow is gone from central and southern Minnesota, many snow statistics are close to average, including the seasonal St. Cloud snowfall (30.7 inches, 0.4 inch below average through February).

Milder Weather Favored for Most of Next Several Days

And, the overall weather pattern appears to be favorable for more mild weather, after our brief end of February and March 1 cool spell (see 30-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). The arctic air that was drained out of Canada during the second half of January has nudged inland from the Arctic Coast to the northern Prairie Provinces (use left arrows to follow white and blue area on the Alicia Bentley 850 mb equivalent potential temperature). 

But, the main flow pattern has a pair of storm tracks (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). The one in central Canada is west-northwest to east-southeast, but that pattern isn't reaching far enough to the south to bring the really cold air to the US border. That pattern will continue through the first 10 days of March (use right arrows to see white and blue areas forecast to retreat northward on the Alicia Bentley 850 mb equivalent potential temperature). The second main storm track involves the complete counterclockwise circulations moving across the central and southern US. Those storms are tapping the temperature difference between slightly cooler than average air in the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces and the much warmer than average air in the central US (see the narrow bands of different colors, indicating the 'rainbow' of temperature contrast where storms and fronts would lie, on the Alicia Bentley 850 mb equivalent potential temperature). That means we will continue to be alternating between near average and well above average temperatures through mid-March. And, if one of the storms in the southern storm track gets strong enough and pulls far enough to the north, we will have a chance for significant precipitation.

Clouds, Early Fog May Tamp Down Warm Readings a Bit Tomorrow

We will build on yesterday's high of 51 (see 30-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest) today and tomorrow. There were highs in the 60's in western and central South Dakota (see yesterday's NWS WPC 3 PM North America zoom-in map), but there were a lot more clouds to our south (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) due to leftover moisture from the northern fringe of precipitation over the past few days (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). Note that there are already clouds in parts of northern Minnesota (see filled in sky circles on the NWS WPC Aviation Weather Center METAR map) and fog reports in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa (see horizontal lines to left of station circle). The National Weather Service has a dense fog advisory in western and southern Minnesota this morning. We will have a light south wind today and tomorrow, which will tend to bring more more moisture into Minnesota, especially since the low moving into Colorado (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) will bring another wave of showers to the Iowa-Missouri border area later today.

I have highs in the lower half of the 50's again today, but I have tempered tomorrow's highs to near 50, because of the possibility of more persistent fog early and lingering low clouds.

Friday-Saturday Storm Poses Uncertain Central Minnesota Chances for Rain Early Friday, Snow Early Saturday

By Friday, the stronger storm in the eastern Pacific (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) will have pushed southeastward through the Southern Rockies. It will emerge in the Plains by Saturday morning. Even though this storm's effects will be felt in parts of Minnesota by late Thursday night or early Friday, the computer forecasts differ quite a bit with the US forecast being wetter and further to the north and the European forecast keeping more of the precipitation to the south. The European forecast is also considerably weaker, but the US forecast has trended a bit weaker in recent runs.

The difference in these forecasts will mean the difference between a good chance for showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night into Friday morning or central Minnesota being just on the edge of the rain (see highest forecast precipitation amounts in southeastern Minnesota on Days 2-3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). Then, the stronger US scenario has the possibility of more lingering precipitation on Friday night into Saturday in northern and possibly central Minnesota. That precipitation would occur as colder air moves in, so there would be a good chance for snow accumulation with perhaps a period of ice in northern Minnesota. Central Minnesota could catch some of that frozen precipitation late Friday night into early Saturday if the stronger scenario works out. However, the weaker forecast would only put some light snow or flurries into Minnesota Friday night. And, the ground temperatures could be mild enough to prevent much accumulation.

The large amount of uncertainty in the snow forecast has the NWS WPC putting only a small chance for major accumulating snow in western Minnesota, ending around Saturday morning (see Day 4 panel of the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather outlook).

My conclusion at this point is that I am quite uncertain how much precipitation St. Cloud will receive and what form it will take Friday and Saturday. I have a chance for rain showers with the best chance Friday morning and a chance of a few snow showers late Friday night.

Drying Out and A Bit Cooler Saturday, Much Warmer Sunday

The weekend has a good shot of being dryer. Temperatures on Saturday will be much closer to average, although the computer forecast uncertainty has me giving a large possible range (upper 30's to middle 40's). However, we will go back to springlike conditions on Sunday with highs well up into the 50's and possibly getting to 60 on Sunday.

Eventually, More Seasonable Temperatures Second Half of Next Work Week, But Uncertain How We Get There

The long range forecast has a transition to at least seasonable cold (highs in the 30's) by the middle of next week. The really long-range forecasts has this colder weather lasting a while through mid-March. It is uncertain how quickly we get there and how much of a precipitation chance (and of what type) there will be. I am not sure enough to isolate the precipitation chance in southeastern Minnesota as done on the Days 6-7 panel of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast ).

Push Clocks Ahead One Hour Saturday Night

Note that Daylight Savings Time begins at 2 AM Sunday. Push the clocks ahead one hour.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"   

Wednesday 3/4/2026: Some early fog and perhaps a sprinkle, then a mixture of clouds and sun, and still mild. High: between 50 and 55 (record warm high: 59 in 1905). Winds: SW 8-15 MPH through midday, SE 5-15 MPH late in the day. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear early, then more areas of dense fog. Continued mild and moist. Low: between 34 and 38. (record warm low: 39 in 1983) Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 3/5/2026: Fog and low clouds through midday, then a few sunny breaks possible during the afternoon. Continued very mild. High: between 48 and 53. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head" 

Thursday Night: Thickening clouds with a chance of late night rain showers. Low: between 40 and 45. (record warm low: 41 in 2000) Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10% evening, 30% late at night.

Friday 3/6/2026: A chance for morning showers and thunderstorms, then mostly cloudy with sprinkles or light showers during the afternoon. Not quite as warm. Perhaps some drizzle. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH, becoming NE 5-10 MPH towards evening. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50% morning, 20% afternoon.  

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"    

Friday Night: Cloudy, turning blustery, and colder. Perhaps an evening rain shower, then a chance for late night light snow or flurries. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH evening, 20-35 MPH with higher gusts during the early morning. Chance of measurable precipitation: 30%.

Saturday 3/7/2026: Clouds and any snow flurries ending early, then becoming sunny by midday, windy through the morning, and not as warm. High: between 38 and 45. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH during the morning, SW 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30% during the early morning, 10% after mid-morning.

Saturday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and milder. Low: between 35 and 40. (record warm low: 38 in 1898) Winds: SW 8-15 MPH evening, 10-20 MPH early morning. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 3/8/2026: Sunshine, mixed with some high clouds, breezy, and much warmer. High: between 55 and 60 (record warm high: 66 in 2016). Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Extended: Cooling by the middle of next week??? Uncertain precipitation chances during the transition???

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Wednesday, 7 Wednesday night and Thursday, 5 Thursday night, 4 Friday, 2 Friday night, 3 Saturday and Saturday night, 2 Sunday, 1 early next week.   

Yesterday's High: 51°F; Overnight Low (through 1 AM Wednesday): 37°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 1 AM Wednesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 1 AM Wednesday): None

Next Update: Thursday, March 5, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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