St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Storm Set-Up: Record Warmth Yesterday...

St. Cloud managed its second record warm temperature (first was April 12; see high temperature in red on the NWS April St. Cloud high-low temperature graph) of April yesterday with a high of 87 degrees (see 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures, red line, and moisture from MesoWest). That broke the April 22 previous record warm high of 86 degrees, set in 1913.

...Increasing Moisture Approaching

That warmth and increasing low-level moisture (dew points in the summer-like 60's in Kansas and Missouri, brown on the latest UCAR hourly dew point chart) will set up much of Minnesota for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) with a good shot for severe weather (see NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 1 convective outlook), mainly large hail during the early and middle afternoon and straight-line damaging winds from mid-afternoon on. A tornado or two may be possible. Marshall, Redwood Falls, and the Twin Cities southward have a category 2 of 5 threat for severe weather. St. Cloud, Alexandria, Duluth, and the bulk of north central and northeastern Minnesota have a category 1 of 5 threat (isolated pockets of severe weather).

As I noted earlier, today's severe weather threat isn't quite as high as what we saw last Friday (category 3 of 5), during the Rochester tornado, or in southern Minnesota (also category 3 of 5) on April 13.

...Cold Front in Dakotas

There are already showers and thunderstorms over the Dakotas from last night (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) as the cold front moved into the western Dakotas (see latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). We will see some leftover clouds from those storms this morning, so our potential high temperature will be in the 70's, but the increased moisture from the south will arrive in south central and southeastern Minnesota this afternoon. The south winds will continue to be strong (winds have been gusting over 30 MPH overnight; see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map  for a map or NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for text of latest winds, dew points and gusts).

Storms Mainly Afternoon, Perhaps into Evening

The severe weather will develop in south central and central Minnesota during the early to middle afternoon, then push eastward. The main threat for the Twin Cities will be during the middle and late afternoon. We are likely to see severe thunderstorm watches this afternoon (see NWS Storm Prediction Center forecasts for updates to the Day 1 convective outlook, due at 7 and 11:30 AM, current weather watches, or mesoscale discussions, issued when forecasters are thinking about a watch) when the initial storms develop or are imminent and warnings when severe weather is about to occur (see NWS Twin Cities watch-warning map for the latest warnings).

Some storms may linger for a while during the evening, but we will see clearing skies by midnight.

Still Wildfire Threat This PM in West Central MN

Behind the storms in western Minnesota, the sun is likely to pop out, and there will still be have very warm (highs near 80) and windy conditions. So another red flag warning, the highest category of fire danger, is in effect this afternoon. The warning area includes Willmar, Granite Falls, Alexandria, and Morris. 

Note that there are now some larger wildfires to the north of Detroit Lakes, north of Willmar, and in scattered areas of Minnesota (see EPA fire and smoke map).

Friday and Weekend Cooler

After the cold front goes by this evening, the low pressure system will stall in the Canadian Prairie Provinces through the weekend. The north to northeast flow will bring the much cooler air around Hudson Bay (see 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) into Minnesota. That air will be heated by a higher sun angle, so I think we will still see above average highs around 60 Friday through Sunday. The amount of rain expected this afternoon won't be enough to ease the low ground water conditions, except perhaps in eastern Minnesota, so those 60 degree highs, combined with a good breeze, will still create elevated to perhaps critical wildfire conditions on Friday and Saturday especially.

There would be the potential for a near freezing low on a clear, cool night, mostly likely on Friday night. There might be a chance for a sprinkle early Sunday as a weak low moves around the stalled system in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Major Rain Potential Sometime Late Sunday into Monday

We will have the potential for an important rain producer sometime in the Sunday-Monday window. Since today's low is expected to stall in Alberta and Saskatchewan through the weekend, that rain producer is most likely to be a storm in the Aleutians (see counterclockwise circulation on the Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) moving through the West Coast into the Plains. The computer forecasts are still jumping the location of the low by a state from run to run; the uncertainty is higher because the path of the rain-producer depends on the progress of two off-shore lows. But, there is the potential for a mainly steady, soaking rain across most of Minnesota (see Days 4-5 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). A few showers might occur late Sunday afternoon, but the bulk of the rain appears to be set up from late Sunday evening into at least midday Monday with still some lingering rain possible Monday afternoon and Monday evening.

Near Average Temperatures Likely to End April

That storm will push the boundary between the really warm air and the cooler air moving in tomorrow well to our south, so we will likely have either near average temperatures in the 50's or even cooler temperatures on a cloudy day. A clear night will still carry the potential for frost (some of my neighbors should think carefully about getting their lawn sprinkles going already). 

The rain potential for late next work week will depend on the interaction between the old Canadian Prairie Province low and another low caught up in the counterclockwise circulation, moving further to the south through the West Coast, Rockies, and into the Plains. Most of the moisture will stay with the southern system. That system would likely keep the bulk of the precipitation to our south. However, the old low may start weakening and drifting towards Minnesota, spreading at least a chance of precipitation our way by Thursday or Friday. So, I am not getting pinned down yet about when we will have the next potential significant rain event.