Friday, February 13, 2026  5:45 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Toasty (With Potential Cold Season Milestones) All the Way Through Next Tuesday

Warmest Temperatures Will Depend on Dwindling Snow Cover

The snowless part of Minnesota has now advanced to west central, southwest, and south central Minnesota (see NWS NOHRSC snow depth chart). Add in a good supply of sunshine yesterday (College of DuPage clean infrared North Central US satellite loop mostly showing ground temperature, rather than clouds) and temperatures rocketed into the 50's yesterday over the bare ground areas (set time to 18Z-21Z, noon-3 PM CST, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). High temperatures nudged to near 40 over the southern edge of the snow covered areas, including St. Cloud (see last 14 days of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). 

Even though there is really cold air leaking into far north central Canada from the Arctic Ocean (dark blue and white on the Alicia Bentley Northern Hemisphere 850 mb equivalent potential temperature map); temperatures in the -30's and -40's with even a -60 on the islands of far northern Canada on yesterday's 3 PM CST NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), the steering winds near the US-Canada border will continue to be west-to-east (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) through the weekend and the first half of next week.

40's, Perhaps 50's Possible

So, we will have the opportunity for very mild weather. This will work on melting more of the snow cover (the sunny daytimes the past couple of days have melted a lot of the remaining snow in open areas, but the area around SCSU persists with 5 inches still on the ground). After that snow disappears, there will be the opportunity to see some of those spring-like temperatures from western and southern Minnesota to spread further around the state. 

So, we could be on a collision course to be well above average on some mild February high temperature thresholds from today through at least Tuesday.

Good Weather for Growing Potholes

The mostly cloudless skies overnight (see sharp change from dark to light colors during the nighttime hours on the College of DuPage clean infrared North Central US satellite loop) will also allow low temperatures to fall back below freezing tonight and tomorrow night. The melt water turning from liquid to ice is also prime pothole making weather. 

Wetter US Pattern, Perhaps Leading to Better Minnesota Precipitation Threat by Tues-Wed(?)

The weather pattern is still in the process of changing as a series of West Coast storms, the first now in Nevada (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop), will bring a better chance for precipitation throughout the US with the Nevada storm (see College of DuPage continental US radar loop) producing precipitation in the south central and southeastern US during the next 3 days (see Days 1-3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). By early next week, the next western storm will have a shot at producing significant precipitation somewhere in the Great Lakes or Northern Plains (see Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The track of the storm could still leave at least parts of Minnesota high and dry. While the start of the precipitation should be in mild enough air for rain, there will be the chance for some significant snowfall (parts of Minnesota listed with at least a small chance for significant snow on Days 5-7 of the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather outlook). So, there is still a chance for this precipitation threat to fizzle out, but there is at least a chance for significant precipitation.

Behind this storm, we should also see a return to at least near average temperatures. A lot of the people who believe in two to four week forecasts have been hinting that the second half of February will be colder.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 2/13/2026: Mostly sunny, light winds, and continued mild. High: between 38 and 43 (record warm high: 55, set in 1908). Winds: WNW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Friday Night: Partly clear with light winds and perhaps some fog. Low: between 18 and 23. Winds: light evening, SE 5 MPH early morning. Chance of measurable precipitation: 0%.

Saturday 2/14/2026: Partly to mostly sunny and even milder. High: between 42 and 47 (record warm high: 52, set in 1921). Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 0%.

Saturday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and a shade milder. Perhaps some fog. Low: between 20 and 25. Winds: light NW. Chance of measurable precipitation: 0%.

Sunday 2/15/2026: Mixed sunshine and high clouds and perhaps even milder. High: between 45 and 50 (record warm high: 52, set in 1921). Winds: S 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head"

Sunday Night: Partly clear, a bit of a breeze, and mild again. Low: between 25 and 30 (record warm low: 35, set in 1998). Winds: SW 5-10 MPH through midnight, NW 5-15 MPH during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Monday 2/16/2026: Partly to mostly sunny and not quite as mild. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: N 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Monday Night: Partly to mostly clear, breezier, and milder. Low: between 28 and 33 (record warm low: 35, set in 1998). Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Tuesday 2/17/2026: Some morning sunshine through high clouds, clouding up during the afternoon with a slight chance for a late day rain shower, turning blustery, but not quite as mild. High: between 37 and 42. Winds: E 10-25 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: Chance for significant precipitation (unknown type) Tuesday night and Wednesday??? Cooling to average temperatures late next work week???

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Friday and Saturday, 7 Saturday night and Sunday, 5 Sunday night through Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday, 2 Tuesday night and Wednesday. 

Yesterday's High: 40°F; Overnight Low (through 5 AM Friday): 22°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 5 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 5 AM Friday): None

Next Update: Monday, February 16, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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