St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Again a List of the Local Festivals Next 2-3 Weeks

For the next 15 days, central Minnesota will be caught up in major celebrations. This includes St. Cloud's Granite City Days (including the SCSU Lemonade Art Fair), the Sauk Rapids Rapids River Fest, the Morrison County Fair in Little Falls, and the Willmar Fests. And, that doesn't even count the Special Olympics. 

The following weekend, we have the 250th Independence Day nationally with numerous local celebrations. And St. Joseph will celebrate its Joetown Days. So, the weather for outdoor celebrations will be crucial over the next two extended weekends. 

Thunderstorms Likely Today, Especially Second Half of the Day

The most certain threat of storms will come today. The slow-moving low pressure system has pushed into southern Saskatchewan overnight (counterclockwise rotating clouds on the College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) with the leading showers and thunderstorms in the Dakota (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). These storms appear to be on track to mainly miss central Minnesota by daybreak (North Dakota storms moving into Canada, South Dakota storms headed for Nebraska and Iowa), but there will be a chance of a few scattered showers this morning.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be this afternoon as new storms develop in the eastern Dakotas and push through Minnesota. The persistent clouds will likely keep high temperatures to the lower half of the 70's, a few degrees cooler than the past couple of days

Still, the approach of the upper-air low will mean some chilly temperatures in the middle atmosphere, so there will be a modest severe weather threat is modest (category 1 of 5) for large hail or straight-line damaging winds. The most important part will be the potential for widespread significant rainfall (more than half an inch shown on Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Lingering PM Showers Wednesday and Perhaps Thursday

After today, drier air will move in, but the cold pocket of air aloft will be near the Minnesota-Ontario border tomorrow and in western Ontario on Thursday. That will mean a lot of midday and afternoon puffy clouds and a few scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm each afternoon. I have a 40 chance for some brief rain showers on Wednesday with only the chance for a brief sprinkle on Thursday. So, the festival plans should mostly go on Thursday.

Summerlike Heat and Humidity to Cause Uncertain Storm Chances Late Week and Weekend

The weather pattern change is still expected for the weekend. The storm just to the south of Alaska (see Pacific mid-troposphere water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) will push into the West Coast by the end of the week and move into the Intermountain States over the weekend. That will shift our west-to-east storm track just to the north of the Canadian border to a much more southwest-to-northeast direction. This will allow the intense heat from the Southwest to Texas (see NWS Heat Risk) to push well northward into the Plains and Ohio Valley by the weekend.

In Minnesota, this means more summerlike heat and humidity moving into the state by the weekend. It also means a good chance for showers and thunderstorms as the leading edge of the hot and humid air tries to replace the September-ish temperatures we've had throughout mid-June.  Unfortunately, this means an iffy forecast for festival weekend activities. I have a first chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

Because the push of the hot air is different in the various computer forecasts, there will be an uncertain chance for showers and thunderstorms (see Days 4-7 on the  NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). In these warm front situations, the most likely time for showers and thunderstorms would be overnight into the next morning, but I have no confidence about which night would have the best chance, and whether the better chance for storms would tend to be in northern Minnesota or northward or affect the rest of Minnesota. The more humid air available means there could be more severe weather in these storms.The chance for us to be in the hottest air is better for Sunday than for Saturday (red heat risk area in parts of southern Minnesota on Monday, Day 7 of the NWS Heat Risk forecast), but long-range forecasts of heat can easily be messed up by showers and thunderstorms.

Temporary relief from the heat and humidity would come when the Alaskan low pushes into Manitoba sometime during the first half of next week. However, having it forecast so far to the north means there would only be modest relief from the heat and lingering uncomfortable humidity. But, it's much too early to pin that down.