St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Monday, March 9, 2026 2:50 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

The Fast and the Flurry-ous (or Some More) This Week

Finally, the Promised 50's Sunday

We are out of the weather pattern from last week (and I'm hopefully done with the computer problems). The pattern which gave us mild and often annoying weather when we couldn't break through the fog (see 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest) finally produced a good amount of sun and highs in the 50's today.

Transition to Cooler by Mid-Week...

However, the weather pattern is changing. High pressure has developed over the Northern and Central Rockies (see clockwise loop of steering winds on the College of DuPage North America water vapor loop), so weather systems are now approaching the Canadian Prairie Provinces and the Great Lakes from the west-northwest. Over the next three days, that will bring a return to either average temperatures (highs in the 30's) or slightly above average temperatures (highs in the lower 40's).

....With Frequent Chances for Snow Bands Over Parts of Minnesota

This will also be a more active weather pattern with frequent storm systems moving from the northeastern Pacific to Montana to Iowa. The available moisture to these storms will be relatively low, so each system will only produce a chance for precipitation over a narrow band of Minnesota. As the cooler air moves in, there will be a better chance that some of the precipitation will be frozen.

Small Chance for A Dusting to an Inch, Perhaps Some Freezing Drizzle, Tonight

There are already a pair of small storms to our west (North Dakota) and northwest (Saskatchewan and Manitoba) early this morning, but our next weather-maker has just landed in Washington state (see slight bend of flow to south on the College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). That system will create a chance for some light snow or flurries tonight. The best chance for some snowfall will be in northern Minnesota, but not too far to our north. Note on the 18 UTC, 1 PM CDT, Tues. period of the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance) that there is a shot for an inch or two of snow, but the probability barely reaches the green, so the chance for that accumulation is about 20-30 percent.  The lack of moisture may not produce really thick clouds; if that happens, there would be more of a chance for freezing drizzle and fog. So, I have that 30 percent chance of a small snow or ice accumulation in St. Cloud tonight into tomorrow morning with a better chance over Brainerd and Park Rapids.

Better Chance for Central Minnesota Snow Coating Tuesday Evening

The next system is a little further to the west and it will go through Iowa tomorrow night into Wednesday. When we have a series of these systems, the band of precipitation is likely to be pushed a bit to the south compared to the previous system. So, central Minnesota will have a slightly better chance for between a dusting and 2 inches of snow with the best chance for that precipitation between tomorrow evening's rush hour and early morning on Wednesday (set tab to 18 UTC, 1 PM CDT, Wed. period of the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). The probabilities are focused from about Hwy. 27 southward through the I-94 corridor and to the Minnesota River Valley. The best chance is shown near the Twin Cities into Wisconsin, but that area of heavier snowfall (between 2 and 4 inches), has been trending eastward over the past few runs.

So, only far northern Minnesota would have travel problems today (temperatures below freezing in North Dakota, see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map, pushing into Minnesota later this morning along with the light radar echoes to the west (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). That snow area will creep further to the south tonight, when temperatures will fall back to near or below freezing. Again, the accumulation potential is relatively low, but any untreated roads will have wet spots freeze tonight.

When Are Sidewalks, Driveways Likely to Be Slippery?

We will only keep some chances for sprinkles or flurries on Tuesday. Temperatures will climb back above freezing, so any light snow accumulation from Monday night will melt. Then, we will see a better chance for steadier precipitation on Tuesday evening with the precipitation turning to snow as it becomes more steady. I have the potential for between a dusting and 2 inches of snow in central Minnesota on Tuesday night. The snow should taper off to flurries late Tuesday night, but temperatures will be below freezing, so any wet spots (parking areas, sidewalks, driveways) could have patches of ice for the Wednesday morning commute.

Drier Late Tuesday Night Through Midday Thursday

Then, we will likely see a break in the precipitation from late Tuesday night until middle to late afternoon Thursday. We will be in the seasonably colder air, so lows will be in the 20's and highs will be around 40.

Some Parts of Minnesota Could See Shovelable Snow on Thursday Night into Friday

Another storm system is forecast to go by on Thursday night and Friday. This system will have a shot to create some larger snow amounts within the band (I wouldn't take the position of the green, smallest probability of shovelable snow, on the Day 4 tab of the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather outlook as the final answer), but the computer forecasts vary enough on the placement of the potential snow band to create the range of possibilities of nearly nothing to shovelable snow. And, parts of southern and central Minnesota may be mild enough for rain showers. Just be aware of the chance for some Friday morning travel issues.

Long-Range Forecasts Show A Possibility for a Stronger Weekend Storm

The longer ahead I go in the forecast, the more likely that the computer forecasts will be off in this fast-moving weather pattern. However, the computer forecasts are showing the potential for a stronger storm Saturday or Saturday night with parts of Minnesota having the potential for shovelable snow. That's what the Days 4-7 panel of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast and the light and even dark green over Minnesota on the Days 6 and 7 panels of the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather outlook.I am not ready to count on that.

Likely Colder Sunday Into Next Week

It does appear that temperatures could even be colder from Sunday into early next week, but some of that will depend on the Saturday-Sunday storm changing the steering winds to more northwest-to-southeast.

That means today will be our best shot at 50 degrees of the next 7 days.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"   

Monday 3/9/2026: Mixed sun and clouds, breezy during the morning, and not as warm. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH during the morning, N 5-10 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Clouding up with a chance for early morning light snow, flurries, or freezing rain. Between a dusting and an inch of snow, plus a layer of ice may be possible by morning. Low: between 30 and 35. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20% evening, 40% late at night.

Tuesday 3/10/2026: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and colder. Perhaps a sprinkle through midday, then a chance of snow or rain showers during the afternoon. High: between 37 and 42. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20% through early afternoon, 30% middle and late afternoon. 

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head" 

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with mixed precipitation turning to light snow, then tapering to flurries after midnight. Between a dusting and 2 inches of snow are possible. Wet spots will freeze. Low: between 27 and 32. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH evening, NW 5-10 MPH early morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 60% evening, 30% after midnight.

Wednesday 3/11/2026: Lots of morning and midday clouds and breezy with perhaps a flurry, then becoming partly to mostly sunny during the afternoon. Seasonably cold. High: between 37 and 43. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH during the morning, 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20% during the morning, 10% during the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Clear and calm evening, some late night clouds with a slight chance for a snow flurry.  Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH evening, becoming W early morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10% evening, 20% early morning. 

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"    

Thursday 3/12/2026: Cloudy with a chance for late rain or snow showers, breezy, and continued seasonably cool. A good chance that any snow will melt on contact with the ground.  High: between 40 and 45. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH, becoming S middle and late afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20% during the morning, 30% during the afternoon. 

Thursday Night: Cloudy with precipitation changing to light snow during the evening. Perhaps between a dusting and an inch will accumulate. Blustery and colder from midnight on. Wet spots will freeze.  Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: S 8-15 MPH evening, shifting to NW 15-30 MPH with gusts over 45 MPH midnight and early morning. Chance of measurable precipitation: 40% evening, 20% late at night.

Friday 3/13/2026: Mixed sun and clouds, windy during the morning, and colder. Perhaps a stray snow flake. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts during the morning, 5-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.    

Extended: Active weather pattern continues with another chance for some rain or snow in parts of Minnesota Saturday or Saturday night??? Colder Sunday?? No return to 50's temperatures for a while...

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 5 Thursday through Friday, 3 Friday night, 4 Saturday through Sunday, 2 Sunday night and Monday, 1 Tuesday, 2 Wednesday.   

Yesterday's High: 54°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Monday): 46°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Monday): Trace; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Monday): None

Next Update: Tuesday, March 10, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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