St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Large Temperature Swings Already in Warm, But Dry Air

We have the ingredients for some wild temperature swings. Our warm air of the past couple of days has been very dry (see dew points in the 40's or lower; blue line on the MesoWest 7-day St. Cloud temperature and moisture graph), so there was a 38 degree swing between Wednesday's low of 31 degrees and Wednesday's high of 68 degrees (see NWS St. Cloud April 2026 daily high-low temperature graph). Yesterday's range was over 40 degrees (39 degree low, 80 degree high; red line on the 7-day St. Cloud temperature and moisture graph). 

Biggest Daily Temperatures Swings: Winter Near Montana Foothills

Usually, it takes a front to get close to the record change. The world records for temperature changes have been mainly set in Montana. Loma's temperatures rose 104 degrees from -49 to +54 on January 14-15, 1972. That happened because the winter can generate extreme cold air over the polar regions. However, right next to the eastern Rockies, a small wind shift can drag air down the eastern slopes of the mountains, which compresses and warms the air. 

Potential 40-Degree Temperature Drop From Yesterday's High to Midday Today

We don't have that kind of arctic air around, but the front marking the northern end of yesterday's warmth is stalled in northern Minnesota (see yesterday's 4 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). Yesterday afternoon's temperatures were in the upper 70's near Hwy. 2, but only in the 30's in northern North Dakota and in the 20's in southern Manitoba. The change in air mass was made more dramatic by having clouds over southern Manitoba and western Ontario versus clear skies in the warm air (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop).

We will make the transition from warm to cold between early this morning when temperatures are still in the 60's (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) and midday today, when temperatures will fall back into the 40's. So, we could have another 40-degree plus temperature change between yesterday's high and afternoon temperatures.

Severe Weather Potential St. Croix Valley East and South

Besides the colder temperatures, the cold front that will pass through early this morning (see latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) will set off new strong showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but the cold front is coming through too quickly to have those storms affect western and central Minnesota (see NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 1 convective outlook). The threat of large hail and a few strong tornadoes will happen this afternoon from southeastern Minnesota into Iowa and western Wisconsin with evening and overnight storms carrying a damaging wind threat.

Some Midday Showers in Central Minnesota....

The first cells of these thunderstorms will develop either over central Minnesota or the St. Croix River Valley during the middle of the day, but those storms should race to the east and southeast rapidly during the early afternoon. I am hanging on to a 50-50 shot of showers and thunderstorms around midday in St. Cloud, but the rainfall potential will be small (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

..Perhaps An Afternoon Sprinkle (not flurry)

There are mainly snow showers right snow in the western Dakotas (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop and NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Those will move over eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota during the morning, but those showers will become lighter as they approach central Minnesota during the middle of the day. And, it will be warm enough at the ground to keep those showers as rain. We might see some sprinkles during the middle afternoon after the main shower threat pushes eastward, but the entire accumulating snow threat will remain in the Dakotas (set tab to 00 UTC Sat, 7 PM Fri, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). The chance for accumulating snow tonight in northern Minnesota is very low and limited to the Canadian border areas (set tab to 18 UTC Sat, 1 PM Sat, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance).

Strong Winds Resume This PM and Continue Through Saturday (Still Very High Fire Danger in Dry Areas This PM)

The other major issue will be strong winds. The winds will pick up to 15-25 MPH with gusts over 35 MPH behind the intensifying thunderstorms this afternoon. In areas without much rain, there again will be a very high fire danger (see Minnesota fire danger map from Minnesota DNR). You should not be burning any yard waste on any windy or warm day until we get substantial rain (and there doesn't appear to be much of a chance for that until next Friday, at the earliest (see entire NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Colder Than Average Weekend With Frost Likely...

Otherwise, we will have that dramatic temperature swing, with early morning temperatures falling from the 60's to the 40's by midday and perhaps 40 degrees by the end of the day. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in the upper half of the 20's, with enough wind tonight and early tomorrow to knock wind chills into the teens. Highs will remain near 40 tomorrow with a lot of clouds and perhaps a stray snowflake, but any snow should melt on contact with the ground. Sunday and Monday mornings will be less windy, but will also have lows in the 20's to near 30.

Back to Warmer Than Average by Tuesday (Warmth Persists Through Thursday)

Temperatures will recover to the 50's on Monday and climb back into the 60's on Tuesday, beginning another warm streak that will last until at least Thursday. Any breezy day will bring more fire weather concerns.

Maybe a Better Chance for Widespread Significant Rain Late Next Week

By Friday, one of the strong storms either along the Aleutian Islands or in the northeastern Pacific (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) will have pushed through the West Coast and the Rockies. Yesterday's forecast had the two storms producing a pair of storms in the Plains, which left the possibility of little moisture getting into Minnesota. Today, the forecasts agree on one stronger storm tracking through Iowa by Friday. I am suspicious of either scenario right now, but that still means that Friday would be our earliest chance for significant rainfall.

Early Season 80 Degree Highs Among Earliest 10 Percent in St. Cloud Records

Yesterday's 80 degree high was the second one this month. The first one on April 12 was within the earliest 10 percent of first 80-degree highs. The record earliest was set on April 4, 1921. The last 80-degree high that was earlier was set on April 5, 2021.

Severe Weather Awareness Week Wraps Up

Today marks the final day for Warm Season Severe Weather Awareness Week in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and South Dakota. Of course, this week will be remembered for Monday's severe weather outbreak of tornadoes and hail in southern Minnesota.