Friday, November 28, 2025  2:25 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Another Major Snow Storm in Southern Minnesota, With Some Central MN Accumulation Late Tonight and Tomorrow?

Next Issue: Potential Friday Night-Saturday Plains Storm, With Heavy Snow Band on Northern Flank...

The next storm, due to affect southern and central Minnesota from this afternoon through tomorrow afternoon, has now moved into Washington state (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). That means the North American upper air observing system will finally get a good look at the storm during the balloon launches later this morning. Still, the forecasts during the past day have been more consistent with the time line of this storm. This system still has the potential to dump some locally heavy rain in eastern and southeast Texas (see Day 3 of the NWS WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Days 2-3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). There will be heavy snow to the north of the storm track, now more consistently forecast to reach Kansas by tomorrow morning and northern Missouri by tomorrow evening. So, that consistently puts the heaviest snow potential from northern and central Iowa (set time tab to 06 UTC Sun, midnight on Saturday night central time, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance for 24 hour amounts) into central and southern Wisconsin with potential for 6-12 inches or more. Lower Michigan will have the main threat from late Saturday afternoon through Sunday (set time tab to 00 UTC Mon, 6 PM Sunday evening central time, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance for 24 hour amounts). There are still differences in the speed and track in the various computer forecasts, but it appears that the Chicago air hub will begin the precipitation tomorrow as snow with plowable amounts likely before it changes over. There is more uncertainty for the Detroit air hub, but the scenario would be similar to Chicago: a chance for accumulating snow for a while before a changeover to rain or the precipitation tapering off.

...From 50 Miles North of the I-90 Corridor Southward Likely to See Enough Snow To Slow Travel (Most Uncertain Part of Forecast)

The threat for plowable snow in southern Minnesota continues in this scenario with most of southern Minnesota expected to be affected. The snow would begin in southwestern Minnesota this afternoon and continue tomorrow morning. Southeastern Minnesota will be within the northern edge of the heaviest snow from late tonight through midnight tomorrow night. Right now, southeastern Minnesota would appear to have potential for between 4 and 8 inches of snow (set time tab to 12 UTC Sun, 6 AM central time, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance for 24 hour amounts) with southwestern Minnesota having a good shot for between 2 and 5 inches of snow (set time tab to 12 UTC Sat, 6 AM central time, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance for 24 hour amounts). These amounts could creep higher with a small shift of the storm track northward (there is enough variation in the computer forecasts to make that scenario possible). This is why the National Weather Service has a winter storm warning for all of southern Minnesota south of a Marshall-New Ulm-Mankato-Winona line (the southernmost pair of counties in Minnesota).

Lighter Accumulation in St. Cloud and Twin Cities

This scenario would put the Twin Cities and possibly St. Cloud within the area of accumulating snow. I now have between 1 and 3 inches forecast for St. Cloud from late tonight through tomorrow evening. The Twin Cities could see between 2 and 4 inches of snow. However, a small shift either way could move these accumulations to the north or south.

So, if you have travel plans tomorrow, it might be a good idea to shift them to today if possible.

Next Blast of Colder Air Even Colder Than Current One

After this storm goes by, a chunk of the colder batch of air that has moved into north central Canada during the past day (on the Alicia Bentley 850 mb potential temperature map for North America, note the southward movement of the dark blue when you step back a day; use left arrow). That air knocked high temperatures down to the plus and even minus single digits yesterday afternoon in Nunavut, the Northwest and Yukon Territories, and Alaska (see 3 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). The air forecast to be here on Sunday and Monday is from the western portions of Nunavut. That air will warm a bit as it moves southward, since there are more hours of daylight in northern Minnesota than in northwestern Canada, but our relatively deep snow cover and some lingering sunshine will keep the warming modest. Instead of the highs in the 20's and the lows in the teens that we've seen the past couple of days, we are likely to see highs in the middle to upper teens, perhaps nudging 20, and lows in the plus single digits as long as the breeze blows and in the minus single digits on Monday morning for the first time this season.

Overall, the winds from this storm system won't be as strong as what we saw on Tuesday and Wednesday. Still, there will be near whiteout conditions in the areas of heavy snowfall tomorrow. A persistent 8-15 MPH wind with higher gusts here will drop the wind chills to the minus single digits, possibly into the minus teens, early Sunday.

The lake effect snow machine, which has eased after dumping huge snow amounts (see NWS map of snowfall totals during the past 24 hours) along the south shore of Lake Superior, northern Lower Michigan, but continues along the southern and eastern flanks of the other Great Lakes (see, for example, the northwest-to-southeast narrow bands on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop), will begin again when the northwest winds kick in behind the next storm on Saturday and Sunday.

There doesn't appear to be any other storm issue after the system goes to our south and east tomorrow. Moderation from the colder conditions could occur on Tuesday (highs back in the 20's). However, another cold shot of air is expected to reach at least south central Canada during the middle of next week, possibly giving Minnesota more January-like cold, with Thursday the most likely day of the coldest conditions. I can't really say anything meaningful about a snowfall threat at the edge of the new cold air shot.

Links to Ground and Air Travel Conditions

I will be on duty through the weekend, since the busy travel season continues. As usual, I will have the following link of ground and air travel links all week.

• Ground Travel
  • Minnesota
  • Surrounding States
    • Iowa
    • North Dakota
    • South Dakota
    • Nebraska
    • Wisconsin
    • Michigan
  • Surrounding Provinces
    • Manitoba
    • Ontario
• Air Travel
  • Flight Aware Misery Map
  • Flight Aware Delays and Cancellations

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 11/28/2025: A partly sunny start, then thickening high and middle clouds, light winds, and still cold. High: between 22 and 27. Winds: light during the morning, SE 5-10 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Friday Night: Thickening clouds with a chance of light snow or flurries during the early morning hours. Light winds, but not quite as cold. Low: between 15 and 20, rising into the 20's by morning. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH, becoming NE late. Wind chill: between 0 and +15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Saturday 11/29/2025: A chance of light snow or flurries, breezy and cold again. Between 1 and 3 inches of new snow is possible late Friday night through Saturday afternoon. High: between 24 and 28. Winds: NE-N 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Saturday Night: Lingering evening clouds and perhaps a flurry, then partly clear late at night, breezy, and cold. Some areas of low visibility in blowing snow. Low: between 13 and 18. Winds: NW 8-18 MPH. Wind chill: between 0 and +10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Sunday 11/30/2025: Sunny in the morning, mixed clouds and sun midday and afternoon. A biting breeze and colder. Temperatures falling into the plus single digits by mid-morning, then recovering to between 15 and 20. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -10 and +5 during the morning, between 0 and +15 during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Sunday Night: Clear early, partly clear late, light winds, and even colder. Low: between -5 and 0 evening, rising into plus territory late at night. Winds: light NW evening, SW 5 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Monday 12/1/2025: Sunny to partly cloudy with typical January-like cold. High: between 13 and 18. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: between -15 and 0 during the morning, between 0 and +15 during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Partly clear, light winds, but a shade milder. Low: between +2 and +7. Winds: SW 5 MPH. Wind chill in the minus single digits. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Tuesday 12/2/2025: Becoming cloudy and not quite as cold. Perhaps a stray snow flurry. High: between 20 and 25. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: between -10 and +10 during the morning, in the teens during the afternoon.Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Extended: Turning colder again late Wednesday into Thursday??? Uncertain chances for snow Wednesday??

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Thursday through Friday, 3 Friday night and Saturday, 5 Sunday and Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday..

Yesterday's High: 25°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Friday): 15°F; Yesterday's Highest Wind Gust (through 2 AM Friday): 30 MPH at 9:47 AM
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None; Yesterday's Coldest Wind Chill (through 2 AM Friday): 5°F set at 2 AM Thursday Night

Next Update: Saturday, November 29, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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