Thursday, December 4, 2025  2:20 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Were These Cars Designed in Florida?

I've noted some of the different attitudes people have taken about the change to colder and snowy weather for the past week and a half. However, I have to note that my car onboard computer is having dementia. Since the snow fell, I've been getting weird warnings, especially when backing up or at intersections. I've had several collision alerts, one time when backing up into......snow flakes, apparently. The forward sensor has gone into alarm at nearly every light. I previously had a 20-year old car, so I'm still getting used to the sensors and the computer response, which seem to have been designed by someone in Florida.

Temperatures Bottoming Out, Pressures Peaking

Right now, we are underneath the cold high, now moving from the Dakotas into Iowa. The colder air kept daytime highs in the teens yesterday (see 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest) and dropped lows through the minus single digits during the evening, likely to bottom out in the minus teens (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR menu) for the first time since February 21. That's the reason for ground temperatures from Nunavut into Iowa with the same color as middle clouds in Kansas (since the infrared sensor determines the temperature of either the ground, in clear sky, or the tops of the overhead clouds; see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop). The approaching high pressure area produced wind gusts of 20-25 MPH yesterday morning (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations), but the winds have calmed as the high approached overnight. However, those of us who have sinuses and joints sensitive to high pressure or large pressure change should try to take a bit easy until the high moves out later today.

Back and Forth From Cold to Seasonable...

We won't remain in this chunk of colder air, but will remain near the boundary between the typical January-like colder air (from the front in Missouri and Kansas northward) and milder air being brought down the eastern slopes of the Rockies (in western Montana and Wyoming). So, temperatures will alternate between the two air masses.

We will begin the transition to warmer air today. However, warmer air has trouble pushing the colder air trapped near the ground out of the way. Temperatures at 5,000 feet above the ground are likely to warm from the plus single digits this morning to near freezing this afternoon, but ground temperatures will only moderate into the teens by late today. Temperatures may dip just below 10 degrees this evening, but will continue to warm, climbing back into the teens overnight. Tomorrow, we will be in the much milder air, so we could actually see a high between the middle 20's and a near average 30 degrees.

...With Cold Dominating the Weekend

The next shot of air from far northwestern Canada will begin to move tomorrow afternoon and last through Sunday night. While temperatures will remain mild tomorrow, Saturday's high is likely to remain in the lower half of the teens, and Sunday's high will be in the plus single digits. How many clouds and how much overnight breeze will determine whether low temperatures are near zero or in the plus single digits or if they can drop again towards -10. Sunday night appears to have the best chance for the colder low.

A Series of (Small) Snow Threats

The roller coaster between near average and below average temperatures will also create the possibility of light snow over parts of Minnesota at times from today well into next week (note that much of Minnesota appears within the lightest, brown, accumulation on each day of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast. The first opportunity appears to be today along the Canadian border and into the Arrowhead. As milder air moves in aloft, there will the chance for a new snowfall of between 1 and 4 inches in north central and northeastern Minnesota. In central Minnesota, I don't expect much.

The next shot will be tomorrow when the cold front comes through around midday. There will be a 40 percent chance for between another dusting and an inch of new snow. As we get later into the forecast, the chances for light snow accumulation become harder to pin down, but I have a slightly enhanced (1 in 5 chance) for light snow or flurries on Saturday (note no more than a 30% chance of an inch in the 24 hours ending 00 UTC Sunday, 6 PM CST Saturday, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance).

If the core of the next cold air mass is relatively dry, the snow threat will only be a few stray snow flakes from Saturday night through Sunday night. The next chance appears to be as warmer air begins to push in aloft on Monday, but there is a difference in the timing and location for the best chance of a small accumulation of snow. The long-range forecast is showing the possibility for a stronger storm Tuesday night or Wednesday. That system could spread some plowable snow in a narrow band along its northern flank, but I am not comfortable pinning down any part of Minnesota for amounts or timing. The uncertainty is why there is only a slight chance of a quarter-inch of melted precipitation in frozen form accumulating on the Day 6 (Wed 12Z) panel of the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather outlook.

The St. Cloud November and Fall 2025 weather summary is still available, documenting the 8th warmest meteorological fall and the 10th driest August-November.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Thursday 12/4/2025: Morning sunshine, more middle and high clouds during the afternoon with a slight chance for a snow flurry. Windy and continued cold. High: between 12 and 17. Winds: S 8-15 MPH during the morning, S 10-20 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -20 and -5 during the morning, in the minus single digits during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Thursday Night: Cloudy and not nearly as cold. A chance for light snow or a snow flurry. Temperatures holding between 12 and 18. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH evening, 5-10 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Friday 12/5/2025: Cloudy, not as breezy, and milder. A chance for light snow or flurries. Any accumulation would be limited to between a dusting and an inch. High: between 25 and 30. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH during the morning, NW 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Friday Night: Cloudy with perhaps an evening flurry, then partial clearing during the early morning hours. A bit colder. Low: between +4 and +9. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH evening, 5 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 12/6/2025: Cloudy, not as breezy, and colder. A chance of light snow or flurries. High: between 10 and 15. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Saturday Night: Perhaps an early flurry, then partly clear and a bit colder. Low: between -5 and 0. Winds: NW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 12/7/2025: Sunny through some high clouds, light winds, and colder. High: between +2 and +8. Winds: N 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Sunday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy and continued cold. Low: between -10 and -5 evening, rising into the plus single digits late at night. Winds: light evening, S 5-15 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 12/8/2025: Cloudy with a chance for light snow or flurries. High: between 10 and 15. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Extended: Near average temperatures early next week, then colder Thursday and Friday??? Uncertain chances for snow Tuesday night and Wednesday????

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Thursday, 5 Thursday night through Sunday, 3 Sunday night, 2 Monday.

Yesterday's High: 25°F (set at 12:24 AM); Yesterday's Daytime High: 16°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Thursday): -7°F;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): Trace; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): Trace

Next Update: Friday, December 5, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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