St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast
Thursday, April 23, 2026 2:30 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus
Showers and Thunderstorms Likely This PM, Some Severe
Storm Set-Up: Record Warmth Yesterday...
St. Cloud managed its second record warm temperature (first was April 12; see high temperature in red on the NWS April St. Cloud high-low temperature graph) of April yesterday with a high of 87 degrees (see 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures, red line, and moisture from MesoWest). That broke the April 22 previous record warm high of 86 degrees, set in 1913.
...Increasing Moisture Approaching
That warmth and increasing low-level moisture (dew points in the summer-like 60's in Kansas and Missouri, brown on the latest UCAR hourly dew point chart) will set up much of Minnesota for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) with a good shot for severe weather (see NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 1 convective outlook), mainly large hail during the early and middle afternoon and straight-line damaging winds from mid-afternoon on. A tornado or two may be possible. Marshall, Redwood Falls, and the Twin Cities southward have a category 2 of 5 threat for severe weather. St. Cloud, Alexandria, Duluth, and the bulk of north central and northeastern Minnesota have a category 1 of 5 threat (isolated pockets of severe weather).
As I noted earlier, today's severe weather threat isn't quite as high as what we saw last Friday (category 3 of 5), during the Rochester tornado, or in southern Minnesota (also category 3 of 5) on April 13.
...Cold Front in Dakotas
There are already showers and thunderstorms over the Dakotas from last night (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) as the cold front moved into the western Dakotas (see latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). We will see some leftover clouds from those storms this morning, so our potential high temperature will be in the 70's, but the increased moisture from the south will arrive in south central and southeastern Minnesota this afternoon. The south winds will continue to be strong (winds have been gusting over 30 MPH overnight; see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map for a map or NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for text of latest winds, dew points and gusts).
Storms Mainly Afternoon, Perhaps into Evening
The severe weather will develop in south central and central Minnesota during the early to middle afternoon, then push eastward. The main threat for the Twin Cities will be during the middle and late afternoon. We are likely to see severe thunderstorm watches this afternoon (see NWS Storm Prediction Center forecasts for updates to the Day 1 convective outlook, due at 7 and 11:30 AM, current weather watches, or mesoscale discussions, issued when forecasters are thinking about a watch) when the initial storms develop or are imminent and warnings when severe weather is about to occur (see NWS Twin Cities watch-warning map for the latest warnings).
Some storms may linger for a while during the evening, but we will see clearing skies by midnight.
Still Wildfire Threat This PM in West Central MN
Behind the storms in western Minnesota, the sun is likely to pop out, and there will still be have very warm (highs near 80) and windy conditions. So another red flag warning, the highest category of fire danger, is in effect this afternoon. The warning area includes Willmar, Granite Falls, Alexandria, and Morris.
Note that there are now some larger wildfires to the north of Detroit Lakes, north of Willmar, and in scattered areas of Minnesota (see EPA fire and smoke map).
Friday and Weekend Cooler
After the cold front goes by this evening, the low pressure system will stall in the Canadian Prairie Provinces through the weekend. The north to northeast flow will bring the much cooler air around Hudson Bay (see 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) into Minnesota. That air will be heated by a higher sun angle, so I think we will still see above average highs around 60 Friday through Sunday. The amount of rain expected this afternoon won't be enough to ease the low ground water conditions, except perhaps in eastern Minnesota, so those 60 degree highs, combined with a good breeze, will still create elevated to perhaps critical wildfire conditions on Friday and Saturday especially.
There would be the potential for a near freezing low on a clear, cool night, mostly likely on Friday night. There might be a chance for a sprinkle early Sunday as a weak low moves around the stalled system in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Major Rain Potential Sometime Late Sunday into Monday
We will have the potential for an important rain producer sometime in the Sunday-Monday window. Since today's low is expected to stall in Alberta and Saskatchewan through the weekend, that rain producer is most likely to be a storm in the Aleutians (see counterclockwise circulation on the Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) moving through the West Coast into the Plains. The computer forecasts are still jumping the location of the low by a state from run to run; the uncertainty is higher because the path of the rain-producer depends on the progress of two off-shore lows. But, there is the potential for a mainly steady, soaking rain across most of Minnesota (see Days 4-5 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). A few showers might occur late Sunday afternoon, but the bulk of the rain appears to be set up from late Sunday evening into at least midday Monday with still some lingering rain possible Monday afternoon and Monday evening.
Near Average Temperatures Likely to End April
That storm will push the boundary between the really warm air and the cooler air moving in tomorrow well to our south, so we will likely have either near average temperatures in the 50's or even cooler temperatures on a cloudy day. A clear night will still carry the potential for frost (some of my neighbors should think carefully about getting their lawn sprinkles going already).
The rain potential for late next work week will depend on the interaction between the old Canadian Prairie Province low and another low caught up in the counterclockwise circulation, moving further to the south through the West Coast, Rockies, and into the Plains. Most of the moisture will stay with the southern system. That system would likely keep the bulk of the precipitation to our south. However, the old low may start weakening and drifting towards Minnesota, spreading at least a chance of precipitation our way by Thursday or Friday. So, I am not getting pinned down yet about when we will have the next potential significant rain event.
Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast
Confidence Level (high): "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"
Thursday 4/23/2026: Mixed clouds and sun, not quite as warm, and uncomfortably humid with a showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon. Some storms may contain large hail or damaging winds. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in storms. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20% morning, 80% afternoon.
Thursday Night: Perhaps an early evening shower or thunderstorm, then clearing after midnight, windy, much cooler, and turning drier. Low: between 36 and 42. Winds: W 10-20 MPH early evening, becoming NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts near midnight, then 10-20 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40% evening, 10% late at night.
Friday 4/24/2026: Mainly sunny, not quite as windy, more seasonable temperatures, and much less humid. High: between 57 and 62. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.
Friday Night: Clear evening, thickening clouds late, diminishing wind, and cool. Low: between 37 and 42. Winds: light W-SW. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Confidence Level (medium): "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head"
Saturday 4/25/2026: A cloudy start, then mixed clouds and sun midday and afternoon. Perhaps an afternoon shower. High: between 57 and 62. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.
Saturday Night: Cloudy and a bit milder. Perhaps a light rain shower. Low: between 43 and 48. Winds: NE-E 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.
Sunday 4/26/2026: Partly clear during the morning, thickening clouds during the afternoon, with a slight chance for late day rain or showers. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.
Confidence Level (low): "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"
Sunday Night: Cloudy with steady rain developing by late evening and continuing through morning. Low: between 43 and 48. Winds: E-SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.
Monday 4/27/2026: Cloudy with rain or showers likely through midday. Perhaps rain tapering to occasional showers during the afternoon, windy, and cooler. High: between 50 and 65. Winds: E 15-25 MPH with higher gusts through midday, 10-20 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60% morning and midday, 30% afternoon.
Extended: Drier Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 50's??? Continued near average or cooler than average through Friday??? Uncertain precipitation chances Thursday or Friday??
Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Thursday and Thursday night, 8 Friday, 6 Friday night, 5 Saturday and Sunday, 3 Sunday night and Monday.
Yesterday's High: 87°F (broke record of 86, set in 1913); Overnight Low (through 2 AM Thursday): 68°F;
St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None
| Temperature Category | High | Low |
|---|---|---|
| 57°F | 35°F | |
| 88°F (1913) | 60°F (1990) | |
| 36°F (1967) | 17°F (1909) |
Next Update: Friday, April 24, 2026 6 AM
Links
- Full UCAR surface chart menu
- NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up
- NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations
- MesoWest: Last 24 hours of St. Cloud Observations
- Full NWS Aviation Center Zoom-In Map
- Full College of DuPage surface map menu
- NWS WPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map
- NWS WPC surface map menu
- NWS WPC Short-Range forecast map
- NWS WPC 0-7 day forecast map loop
- US Air and Sports Net MN Wind Chill map
- NWS NOHRSC Snow Analyses
- US Watch/Warning Map from National Weather Service
- NWS Twin Cities Regional watch warning map
- Today's NWS Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook
- Active Tropical Cyclones in eastern Pacific and Atlantic from NWS Tropical Prediction Center
- Potential Flooding Areas from the NWS Weather Prediction Center
- Air Quality Index from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
- NWS Weather Safety Page
- CDC Natural Disaster and Severe Weather Safety
- NWS Hot Weather and Sun/Ultraviolet Safety
- NWS Winter Storm Safety
- NWS Cold Weather Safety
- Yesterday's Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports are here
- NWS Hurricane Safety Page
- NWS Tropical Prediction Center overview of storm surge (coastal flooding)
- Minnesota MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
- Minnesota DNR Wildfire danger
- US Average Weather Related Deaths from NWS
- College of DuPage radar
- Airline Flight Delays and Cancellations from FlightAware.com
- Yesterday's Saint Cloud Climate Summary
- St. Cloud Weather Summaries by month
- Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall maps
- Minnesota State Climatology Office create your own precipitation table
- NWS Create Your Own Rainfall Map
- Daily High/Low/Precip/Snowfall by Month (1997-current)
- National Weather Service Saint Cloud Daily Weather Site
- Saint Cloud Daily Normals, Records, and Extremes
- Bob Weisman's Ultimate Saint Cloud Climate Page
- St. Cloud Growing Season Rainfall and Departure from normal (at the bottom of this forecast each day)
- National Drought Mitigation Center's US Drought Monitor (updated on Thursdays)
- DNR Waters Streamflow Report (updated on Mondays)
- NWS Create Your Own Rainfall Map
- More Drought Links (from the State Climatology Office, Minnesota DNR)
- DNR Forestry/Fire Conditions page
Comments
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!
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