St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Both Snow and Rain Lacking, Especially to the South and West of Minnesota

Unfortunately, meteorologists are going to spend a lot of time this upcoming warm season looking at the latest US Drought Monitor (update later this morning). A large area of the Plains and the Intermountain Region were short on snowfall this winter (see gaps in snowfall in western Colorado, eastern Utah, and Arizona when you set the NWS NOHRSC snowfall analysis to seasonal snowfall). The amount of total precipitation (melted and liquid) is well below average since late December in eastern Washington, in the Plains from Nebraska and southern Iowa southward, and from western Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah southward (see yellow or red areas on the NWS Water Prediction Center precipitation map for the past 120 days using yesterday's date). These problems have already caused major fires in Nebraska with more fires breaking out in parts of the central and southern Plains. Water shortages are expected in areas that receive water from the Colorado River, since the pockets of low snow feed much of the Colorado River basin.

Another Early Spring Heat Wave Plains (Today) and West (Into the Weekend)

The current heat resuming in the Southern Rockies (highs in the 80's and 90's yesterday as close to us as Nebraska, Missouri, and Kansas; see yesterday's NWS WPC 4 PM CDT North America zoom-in map) will continue today in the Plains (see Day 1 of NWS Heat Risk) and into the weekend in the Southwest will just make the problem worse.

Worst Precipitation Shortage in North Central and Northeast Minnesota With Rain Needed After Ground Thaws

The main precipitation issue in Minnesota is that so much of north central, northeast, and southwestern Minnesota had a dry fall. The snow melt from the heavy snowfall in northeastern Minnesota is great for the northeastern Minnesota State Parks with waterfalls, as well as lakes and rivers, but we will need major rainfall once the frost leaves the ground to recharge the dry soil.

Temperatures Swings Continue With Saturday Most Uncertain Day

The 'wait-a-day' rapid temperature change pattern will continue into next week. The most uncertain day of the forecast is Saturday. The computer forecasts have the cooler air that will be with us today and tomorrow starting to move out, but they have been inconsistent on how quickly the leftover cold air will leave. From one day's forecast to another, the high temperature forecast has jumped or fallen 10 degrees. For now, I am going with a milder high in the upper 50's to near 60 with less confidence than the rest of the forecast.

Much Cooler Today and Tomorrow, Back to Warmth Sunday, Not Quite as Warm Monday

Today (highs in the middle 40's) and especially tomorrow (highs in the 30's to perhaps 40) will feel much cooler than yesterday's 70's. After Saturday's uncertain warm-up, we will be back in the toasty air on Sunday with highs again in the upper 60's to 70's. On Monday, it appears that a front may ease through central Minnesota, dropping our highs back into the 50's.

Besides Thurs AM Showers, Not Much Precipitation Chance Through Monday

This morning, there are some light rain showers working across northern and central Minnesota (radar echoes on the College of DuPage US north central radar loop are actually getting to the ground; see drop symbol on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Those light showers, a few in the form of snow showers, will be in the northern half of Minnesota through mid-morning. Other than that, there will be little chance for precipitation until at least next Tuesday. There are hints of a wetter pattern for the Continental US in general during next work week. The literal computer output right now has significant precipitation in Minnesota both next Tuesday and Thursday, but I don't have a lot of confidence in the details yet.