St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Today and tomorrow will be our best chance for rain during the upcoming 7 days (see Days 1-2 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). And, it will bring an end to our current heat wave (now 5 straight days of 90 degree highs, including yesterday's 91).

Showers and thunderstorms may leak from the Dakotas (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) into parts of Minnesota early this morning (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop), but they will drastically weaken as they push east to southeastward. The afternoon and evening wave of showers and thunderstorms are expected to also develop in the Dakotas (see category 2 severe weather potential on the NWS Storm Prediction Center convective outlook). Those storms will push eastward tonight for the best chance of Minnesota thunderstorms. There is the potential for heavy rainfall (see category 2, yellow, area in Minnesota on Days 2-3 of the NWS WPC excessive rainfall outlook). The computer forecasts are keeping the storms more in southern and parts of central Minnesota than in the northern half of the state, but that is uncertain (see the location of Days 1 and 2 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). There is a category 1 threat for severe thunderstorms in central Minnesota with the main threat being straight-line damaging winds.

Still Oppressively Humid Today (With Uncertain Heat)

How hot and humid will we be today? The leftover clouds from the Dakotas storms will be around for at least a while today, but there is a good chance of having a lot of sun from late morning through much of the afternoon, since the bulk of the storms aren't expected until tonight. If we get sun, temperatures will be at least in the upper 80's and could make it to the lower 90's. The dew points will remain in the oppressive 70's, so the heat index would climb into the upper 90's (see latest temperatures, dew points, and heat indices of 88+ on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up) as they did yesterday. Note some Minnesota red spots on the NWS Heat Risk Forecast.

Few Lingering Showers Tomorrow

The low pressure system that triggered the storms in Idaho, western Wyoming, and Montana is now forecast to move to southern Minnesota by tomorrow afternoon, then drift southeastward into Missouri by Saturday, so there could be a second afternoon wave of storms in southern Minnesota tomorrow. We may have a lot of lingering clouds early tomorrow morning and a few scattered showers, but I don't expect a lot of rain in St. Cloud.

Very Warm, But Drier Weekend...With At Least Smoke Aloft

After tomorrow, drier air will arrive from north central Canada. That will finally allow the dew points to drop into the comfortable low to middle 50's. High temperatures will be in the 80's, perhaps pushing 90 over the weekend. However, the thick smoke in interior northern Canada (Nunavut and Northwest Territories; see EPA fire and smoke map) will also blow in. At this point, there isn't a lot of low-level smoke (most Air Quality Index readings are in the moderate, yellow, category except right around the fires). But, there might be some chance for some low-level smoke as the air sinks in the wake of the low.

Questionable Chance for Showers Early Next Week (Some Heat Monday?)

The heat will rebuild in the Northern Rockies over the weekend (see Sat-Mon on the NWS Heat Risk forecast). Some of that heat could push into Minnesota Monday, but the forecast timing continues to push the hottest air over Minnesota on Sunday night, so there is no guarantee of a high well into the 90's on Monday. The Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast show a chance for significant rainfall from either this front or a follow-up front around mid-week (that's how vague the forecast is around mid-week), but I wouldn't count on it yet.