St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Longest Heat Wave in 4 Years...

Our longest heat wave since June 5-10, 2021, 6 straight days with a high of at least 90 degrees, came to an end with Saturday's 88 degree high. Thus far, the average July temperature has been 75.2 degrees, 4.9 degrees warmer than average. That would be warm enough to place 9th among the warmest Julys in St. Cloud records if it held up for the month. It would be the warmest July since 2012 (76.5 degrees).

Still, Not Close to Enough Rainfall

In rainfall, St. Cloud has merely been marking time. There were 2.02 inches of rain earlier in July, which is nearly a quarter inch behind for the month. Except for May (1.49 inch, 2.17 inches below average), monthly rainfall has been near average. But, that still means we are 2.08 inches behind since March (11.77 inches of precipitation, 13.85 inches average). Since the beginning of the dry spell last August, St. Cloud is still more than six and half inches behind on rainfall (19.32 inches actual, 26.06 inches average). And, since thunderstorm rainfall is spotty, some parts of central, northern, and northeastern, and southeastern Minnesota have been more than 4 inches behind on rain (red areas) during the past 120 days (set NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota precipitation map to yesterday's date, departure from average, and last 120 days).

The modest rainfall totals continue to produce lower than average flow in area rivers, including the Mississippi River at St. Cloud and much of the northern half of Minnesota (click on orange or dark red sites on the Minnesota DNR Minnesota streamflow page). While grass and area crops are taking advantage of the near average June-July rainfall, any long dry spell will have the plants tap the low ground water levels, leading to difficulties.

Smoke Lingering Nearby But Not Quite in Central Minnesota

The change in air mass on Thursday finally swept the extreme pollution levels (use daily AQI tab and click date to see St. Cloud's worst reading) out of central Minnesota. The smoke has drifted back northward over the weekend, with orange levels getting into the Twin Cities early this morning (see current Minnesota Air Quality Index from Minnesota Pollution Control Agency). The worst air quality has remained over Wisconsin and northeastern Minnesota (red still means issues for everyone), but levels have eased since last week (no maroon, and purple has disappeared when you click on loop on the EPA Airnow.gov interactive air quality map).

Prolonged Drier (This PM) and Cooler (Tue-Thurs) Spell Ahead

We have another hot day to come with some air pollution issues to our southeast today, but the air from the Canadian Prairie Provinces is due to move in behind a cold front that pushed into the Dakotas yesterday afternoon (see yesterday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). Note that Minnesota is only highlighted in orange on the NWS Heat Risk forecast today, then not again until next weekend (some red then). So, we have the potential for another high in the 90's today, although with moderate humidity. Only parts of northeastern and south central and southeasternsouth central and southeastern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, are under a heat advisory today.

Besides Early Storms, Not Much Chance in W, C Minnesota

The bulk of the shower and thunderstorm threat will go by most of western and central Minnesota early this morning (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). By this afternoon and evening, the low pressure system in Manitoba (see counterclockwise circulation on the College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) will pull the cold front through. That means the main threat for showers and thunderstorms later today, including potential severe weather, will be in far eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin (see Day 1 of NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Back to 80 or Even 70's Mid-Week

From this afternoon through Thursday, drier air from the Canadian Prairie Provinces will move in. That will knock dew points back into the 50's. The air mass will still be hot today with highs likely in the 90's, but highs should be limited to the upper 70's to perhaps 80 tomorrow and Thursday. Any clear, calm night will have the potential of producing a low in the 50's and some areas of fog.

Air Quality Will Ease a Bit Today, But Could Be a Mid-Week Issue

The issue from this afternoon through mid-week will be both the chance of blowing smoke from the northern portions of Manitoba or northeastward (see EPA fire and smoke map) into Minnesota. While the questionable air quality is just to our south and east early this morning, the switch to northwest winds this afternoon should push the smoke-filled air away from Minnesota, so the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency hasn't included the St. Cloud area in its air quality alert.

While we will see northwest winds today, the winds will become more northerly tonight and tomorrow. The forecast air source will be close to the western edge of the smoke plume covering much of north central Canada, so there is the potential for more air quality issues during the middle of the week. 

Fires Continue to Burn and More Fires Possible

The fires continue to burn in north central and northeastern Minnesota near the Canadian border. And there will be more fire potential through at least tomorrow. The hot, windy, and drier conditions expected this afternoon will push the fire danger to extreme levels (see update from Minnesota DNR later this morning). Even though it will be cooler tomorrow, the winds will still be strong, so the fire danger will be even higher.

At Least Some Weekend Warming

During our cool down, the heat will redevelop in the Northern Rockies and move into Montana by late in the week (see NWS Heat Risk forecast). That heat could build into Minnesota over the weekend, or there could be a series of storms moving from the Canadian Prairie Provinces into the Great Lakes, leaving a front that could be the focus of scattered showers and thunderstorms at times. Still, we are likely to have highs at least in the 80's if there are storm chances or 90's if not and the dew points should climb to at least the uncomfortable 60's.