Friday, December 5, 2025  2:20 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Today Will Likely Be the Mildest Day Until At Least Next Tuesday

After temperatures plunged to -14 yesterday morning in St. Cloud (see 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest), within 2 degrees of the December 4 record cold low, and only rebounded to +10 by late yesterday afternoon, temperatures have been rising overnight, thanks to the edge of the milder wedge of air in the western Dakotas yesterday afternoon (see 3 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). The milder air has come with some middle and low clouds (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop), also helping to allow temperatures to rise through the teens during the evening and topping 20 during the early morning hours (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Still, there are some temperatures near freezing along the I-94 corridor in southern North Dakota into parts of South Dakota, so we will have a shot at our first freezing temperature since November 25 later this morning.

Those mild temperatures won't last long since the steering winds continue to blow northwest-to-southeast in the western half of Canada into the Northern Plains (see College of DuPage mid-level water vapor loop), so the cold high pressure area in the Yukon (see afternoon temperatures well below zero on the 3 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) will head this way and arrive here Sunday night. This change means the near freezing temperatures midday today will fall back to the plus single digits (perhaps near zero) tomorrow morning. Saturday's high will only recover to the lower teens. The coldest of the next cold shot will be from Saturday night through Sunday night. Lows will be sub-zero both nights and could again reach -10 near midnight Sunday night, with Sunday's high only in the plus single digits. The next push of milder air will begin Monday as high temperatures return to the teens. We could see temperatures in the 20's and perhaps even approaching freezing next Tuesday.

Since the Yukon high is fairly strong, those of you who suffer joint or sinus pain in changing pressure or high pressure will struggle from this evening through Monday morning.

Frequent Shots at Snowfall, Largest in SW MN Tomorrow Night

There will be some chances for mostly small snow accumulations in central Minnesota from today through the middle of next week. Today, there are radar echoes in the Dakotas and parts of Minnesota (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) associated with the cold front from the weak Red River Valley low (see latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). The lower atmosphere is dry, so only the Dakotas have the light snow reaching the ground (see red asterisks to left of station circle on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). So, there will be a 1 in 3 chance for between another dusting and an inch (maybe as much as 2 inches in east central Minnesota) of new snow today (see 00 UTC Sat, 6 PM CST Fri, tab on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). Tomorrow evening, central Minnesota will be on the northern fringe of a plowable snowfall concentrating in South Dakota, southwestern and south central Minnesota, and Iowa (set tab to 18 UTC Sun, noon CST, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). There will be the potential for between 2 and 5 inches of snow in northwestern Iowa with between 1 and 4 inches possible in southwestern Minnesota. I always have qualms about forecasting a storm with a narrow band of moderate precipitation, but it appears that this snow band will be far enough to our south to keep only a 1 in 5 chance for light snow or flurries here with little accumulation.

When the milder air tries to push back into Minnesota next Monday, we will have clouds and a 1 in 3 shot at another dusting to an inch.

More Serious, But Uncertain Storm Tuesday-Wednesday?

The long-range forecasts have a stronger storm moving out of the Canadian Prairies and into the Northern Plains next Tuesday night and Wednesday. There wouldn't be a huge amount of moisture with this system, but the stronger storm would have a shot at grinding out some snowfall of at least 4 inches along and just north of the path of the storm. However, the forecasts don't agree either on timing or track, with the US and European forecasts a state apart (one through Minnesota and one through Iowa). The Day 5 panel of the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather outlook has the best shot for accumulating snow in central and north central Minnesota, but it's too early to count on that. There are even some parts of the forecasts that could indicate rain or mixed precipitation right along the storm track, but it's too early to pin that down.

After the Tuesday night-Wednesday system goes by, we will again have colder weather moving in.

The St. Cloud November and Fall 2025 weather summary is still available, documenting the 8th warmest meteorological fall and the 10th driest August-November.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 12/5/2025: Cloudy, not as breezy, and milder. A chance for light snow or flurries. Any accumulation would be limited to between a dusting and an inch. High: between 25 and 32. Winds: S 5-10 MPH during the morning, NW 5-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Friday Night: Cloudy with perhaps an evening flurry, then partial clearing during the early morning hours. A bit colder. Low: between 0 and +8. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH evening, 5 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 12/6/2025: Cloudy, not as breezy, and colder. A chance of light snow or flurries. Little or no accumulation expected. High: between 10 and 15. Winds: N-NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Saturday Night: Cloudy with perhaps some evening flurries, then partial clearing and a bit colder. Low: between -5 and 0. Winds: N 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 12/7/2025: Sunny through some high clouds, light winds, and colder. High: between +2 and +8. Winds: N 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Sunday Night: Partly clear, calm, and colder through the evening, then clouding up with a bit of a breeze late. Low: between -10 and -5 evening, rising into the plus single digits late at night. Winds: light evening, S 5-15 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Monday 12/8/2025: Cloudy with a chance for light snow or flurries. Between a dusting and an inch could accumulate. High: between 15 and 20. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Monday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy and continued cold. Temperatures in the teens early, rising into the 20's late at night. Winds: light evening, SW 5 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 12/9/2025: Cloudy with a chance for snow or rain showers during the afternoon. Milder. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 40%.

Extended: Any precipitation turning back to snow Tuesday night and Wednesday???? Other uncertain chances for snow later next week??? Colder Thursday and Friday???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 6 Friday through Sunday, 4 Sunday night, 3 Monday and Monday night, 2 Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 17°F (set at midnight Thursday night); Yesterday's Daytime High: 10°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Friday): 10°F;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None

Next Update: Monday, December 8, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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