St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Showers and Thunderstorms Produced Strong Late Morning Wind Gusts

The tropical heat and humidity moved into Iowa yesterday (see afternoon temperatures well into the 90's and dew points in the middle 70's on yesterday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). That set up a wave of showers and thunderstorms during the morning (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) and a few scattered overnight thunderstorms (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop, but note that Sioux Falls radar is still out).

The morning thunderstorms developed a small low pressure system (called a wake low) behind the line of storms, which produced very strong wind gusts from the tail end of the rain over the following hour. The St. Cloud Sky Central Airport had a wind gust to 46 MPH (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations). In Cambridge, a 20-inch branch was downed on a mobile home. There was likely a problem with the St. Cloud rain gauge since there was no rain reported during the morning storms (actually, the weather sensor has been malfunctioning for over a week, since there is no report of rain during any precipitation, but the total rain accumulation climbs).

Last of Lingering Storms Moving Through Early, Setting Up Hazy, Hot, and Humid Today

This morning, there is a small chance that the South Dakota storm moves through central Minnesota near sunrise, but the strongest northward surge of the sultry air is expected today (worst of the air in southern Minnesota as of 2 AM on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). As long as the low clouds clear out (see College of DuPage north central US shortwave infrared satellite loop), we will have our best shot at a heat index in the 100-110 range (see hourly heat indices of 88 or higher on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). That's why the National Weather Service has an extreme heat warning for central, east central, south central, and southeastern Minnesota (red on the NWS Twin Cities watch-warning map) and a heat advisory (orange) for the southern two-thirds of Minnesota all the way to Ohio and Florida.

Coming off the warm overnight temperatures (70's in the southern half of Minnesota; see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), the heat stress will be greatest for people who could not cool off overnight. Kids, seniors, pregnant women, and people with a circulation or breathing condition are the most vulnerable. Also, the strong sunshine will produce the threat of skin damage, so vulnerable people should seek indoor shelter this afternoon. Keep in mind that there is no such thing as a safe tan.

Some Air Pollution Threat As Well

The intense afternoon heat will also raise the possibility of low-level ozone. Currently, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency expects that the high humidity will keep the ozone concentration from getting to serious levels today. Later days with temperatures short of the 90's will make the ozone threat smaller. There is a chance that the late week air flow from central Canada will allow some of the wildfire smoke (see EPA fire and smoke map) to reach here.

Storms, Possibly Severe, Several Times in Northern Minnesota, Overnight Central and Southern MN

That warm front will push a bit further to the south tonight, setting us up for a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. The category 2 threat (of 5) for severe weather is in effect during the morning, and from the afternoon into the evening hours in northern Minnesota. The central and southern Minnesota threat will be mainly tonight, mainly during the late evening through the early morning hours. The main threat would be straight-line winds and large hail. 

Storms Possible Tomorrow...

Tomorrow, the front will stall somewhere in southern Minnesota or northern Iowa. There will be the chance for both morning and middle afternoon and later showers and thunderstorms. The severe weather threat is category 1 of 5 and concentrated in central and southern Minnesota.

...But Not Quite as Sticky or Oppressive

The humidity may take a small drop as dew points will be in the upper 60's to lower 70's, rather than the middle to upper 70's expected today. And, more lingering clouds will limit the highs to between the upper 80's to the lower 90's. That will push heat indices into the high 90's to low 100's range. We are likely to see another heat advisory with perhaps only the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota in another excessive heat warning (see Tuesday's NWS Heat Risk Forecast).

Warm and Humid With Uncertain Storm Chances Rest of Week

During the rest of this week, the prime region of the most sultry air will likely be to our south and east (see rest of NWS Heat Risk Forecast), but there will be a series of low pressure systems following the current system in the Pacific Northwest (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) into Manitoba and Ontario. Since the oppressive air won't be far to the south, there will be a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms, but the threat is hard to pin down. Note that each period of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast from Wednesday into the weekend (Days 3-7) has a local area of high rainfall in parts of Minnesota. I have a 50-50 chance for Wednesday showers and thunderstorms (category 1 threat for severe weather) with smaller chances (20-40 percent) through Friday. Those uncertain chances for storms will continue into the July 4 weekend. At this point, I expect Minnesota will be in very warm and uncomfortably humid air (highs in the 80's, dew points in the 60's), but that would be a bit short than advisory level. There could be a northward surge of the oppressive air at some point, but I'm not counting on it for now.

June 2026 Will Finish Warmer Than Average Despite Recent Cool Spell

The long June period without an 80-degree high has dropped the June average St. Cloud temperature to within a degree of average through Friday. It's still above normal because 10 of the first 12 June days had highs in the 80's. Our lone 90-degree high so far this season was set on May 27. This average will get pushed up dramatically during the last 3 days of June.