St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Storms Mainly Stayed South Yesterday

Central Minnesota managed to dodge yesterday morning's showers and thunderstorms (set number of frames to 200 on the  College of DuPage north central US radar loop) as the storms to our south took over. There were a few scattered central Minnesota storms late yesterday afternoon into the early evening, but once again, the dominant storms have been the ones developing to the south. You can see the early morning hours when the storms in Iowa and southward forced the Dakotas and western Minnesota storms to shrivel (see College of DuPage north central US clean infrared satellite loop). So, the morning threat for showers and thunderstorms disrupting Independence Day celebrations will be smaller than expected. 

Fewer clouds than expected allowed another day of middle 80's highs in central Minnesota (set time to 21Z, 4 PM CDT, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) with continued uncomfortable dew points in the 60's.

That moisture is still around early this morning (see UCAR hourly dew point chart), although short of the upper 60's and lower 70's dew points accompanying the intense heat from New York to the Carolinas (see yesterday's 4 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). 

50-50 Shot at Storms, Mostly PM into Evening, So Keep Watching the Skies

The main threat for these storms will be this afternoon and evening, possibly as early as midday. The strongest storms will develop on the southern flank of this morning's leftover storms, so the main severe weather threat will be from Nebraska into Kansas and Oklahoma. But, some of the storms that develop in the Dakotas and Minnesota could produce a threat for isolated straight-line wind damage. The storms will still contain lightning, which is a danger to outdoor activities, and could produce locally heavy rain. I have a 50-50 shot at those storms this afternoon into the early evening. Unfortunately, those running the Independence Day celebrations this afternoon will have to keep an eye on the sky.

Dangerous Currents Along Parts of Lake Superior Today

The other issue for today's activities is that there are likely to be stiff northeast winds in northeastern Minnesota. That could produce dangerous rip currents for people on Lake Superior beaches, especially in the western portion of the North Shore and in Wisconsin (see beach hazards statement from NWS Duluth).

Likely Remaining Sticky With Smaller Storm Chances Sunday and Monday

Tomorrow still appears to be the drier of the two weekend days, but the surge of drier air is now forecast to be more modest than it appeared earlier. So, I now think that dew points will at least remain in the uncomfortable 60's through tomorrow and Monday. This raises the possibility for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, but that chance (1 in 5) will be much smaller than we have today (50-50).

Warm and Sticky Most of Next Week With Uncertain Storm Threats

Without such a strong push of drier air, the west-to-east progression of storm systems from the eastern Pacific to near the US-Canadian border will continue. The computer forecasts aren't great at picking out which storm in the upper data void over the ocean has the best chance to be the strongest when it moves through Minnesota. But, they are hinting at more widespread thunderstorms from Monday night through Wednesday. The Days 4-5 NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast has gone a bit ga-ga with the amounts. You're probably tired of reading that I don't trust thunderstorm forecasts that far ahead, but I have a 30-40 percent chance for storms during that period.

During the rest of the time, I will continue the uncomfortable humidity through much of next week with at least a 20-30 percent chance for storms. Highs will most likely be in the 80's, although there might be a shot at a 90 degree high either Monday or Tuesday, if there are storms that develop the previous night, but they concentrate in northern Minnesota, Manitoba, or Ontario.  

June 2026 Weather Summary Available

The top story in my completed June 2026 St. Cloud weather summary is insufficient drought relief (set NWS Water Prediction Center Minnesota rainfall map to the month of June). While parts of central Minnesota from Wheaton to Hutchinson had over 5 inches of June rainfall (red), large portions of Minnesota merely were in the green (two inches, below average for June). The St. Cloud Airport was near average (3.62 inches, average June rainfall 3.75 inches).