Wednesday, December 3, 2025  2:20 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

I Used to Think Thanksgiving Was a Snow Magnet

November Was a Snowier Month....In the 1970's through 2010's

In working on the St. Cloud November and Fall 2025 weather summary, I confronted one of my impressions of November weather. When I first moved to Minnesota, I got the idea that near-Thanksgiving snow storms were part of the climatology of central Minnesota. Like some of you this past weekend, I had to change my travel plans coming back from Thanksgiving weekend, thanks to a major snow storm. Then, we had a couple of years with early November snow, not just 1991, the year of the Halloween blizzard. However, if I use 3 decades, like the National Weather Service does to determine average, this was only a temporary spike. Between 1981 and 2010, the St. Cloud's November average snow was 9.2 inches. However, the average was lower for 1971-2000 (8.6 inches) and really dropped during the 1961-1990 period (6.8 inches). More recently, the 1991-2020 average snowfall in November is also down to 6.8 inches. That's because the period between 1975 and 2014 had 7 of the 10 highest November snowfall totals. This is similar to the way that March 1965 (51.7 inches, the snowiest month on record) biased the statistics towards March being the snowiest month of the season. The overall average throughout the period has January as the snowiest month.

New Coating of Snow Last Evening, Typical of January Snows

We did add a typical mid-winter light and fluffy snowfall last evening (see College of DuPage north central US radar) as the next weak low pushed through Minnesota (see 24-hour loop of NWS WPC US surface maps). Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport picked up half an inch of new snow. Some roads have a partial snow cover early this morning, but that will ease towards morning. As long as the northwest-to-southeast flow pattern (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) persists, any modest storm moving along will lack moisture and only be able to squeeze out light snow falls, unlike our pair of Thanksgiving week storms. Only a much stronger low in the northern storm track would have a shot at more significant snow, but the lack of moisture would keep the band narrow. That's why last night's snow was more typical of January or February snows.

Windy and Turning Colder With Some Blowing Snow During Daytime

The clouds and the mild air in the warm sector (see 3 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), allowed temperatures to rise overnight; yesterday's daytime high was 16 degrees, but the temperature rose into the middle 20's by the early morning hours (see 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). However, the batch of the coldest air in North America has now advanced past Hudson Bay to northern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario (see dark blue on the 850 mb temperature anomaly map from the Alicia Bentley real-time GFS site). The coldest of the cold air will brush northeastern Minnesota by tonight (use right arrow to advance in time), but only sideswipe central and southern Minnesota. Still, this means temperatures will go down today, with readings back in the teens by sunrise and likely falling into the plus single digits by late afternoon. The high pressure area at the ground (located in northern Alberta at 3 PM yesterday; see NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) is also much stronger than the departing low. All of the brown lines (isobars) on that 3 PM map between the low and high mean that there is a large pressure difference between the two systems, so we will have northwest winds at 10-25 MPH with some gusts over 30 MPH. Those winds, the previous snow pack, and the overnight coating of light snow will mean that there will be some open areas with low visibility at times in blowing snow today.

Coldest Night of the Season So Far Tonight....

That cold high will swoop over eastern South Dakota and into Iowa tonight (see Thursday 00Z, 6 PM Wed night, through Thursday 12Z, 6 AM Thursday, panels on the NWS WPC short-range forecast) will allow winds to calm. So, we are likely to see our first minus teens low of the season.

Rising and Higher Pressure Likely to Cause Trouble for Those of You With Sensitive Joints and Sinuses

Also, the pressure change today and the high pressure moving in tonight (central pressure likely near 1030 mb, 30.4 inches of mercury) will likely cause joint and sinus pain for those of you sensitive to rapid pressure change.

The coldest of the cold air will move out tomorrow morning. Temperatures will take a little time to moderate, so I only expect highs around 10 degrees tomorrow. The winds will again pick up to 15-25 MPH during the afternoon.

Alternating Between Near Average and Below Average Temperatures Friday Into Early Next Week

From Friday through early next week, central Minnesota will be near the northern storm track near the border of colder than average air to the north and average to milder than average air to the south. That means rapid temperature changes as we alternate between the two air masses. There will be cloudy periods with a chance for light snow or flurries, but there is enough uncertainty in the track and timing that I have no better than a 1 in 5 chance for accumulating snow with the best chance on Friday, Saturday, and maybe Monday (see that central Minnesota is frequently inside the lightest precipitation contour on Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). At this point, Friday appears to be the mildest day with highs in the 20's and some areas possibly approaching 30. Saturday will have highs in the teens with Sunday's highs perhaps not reaching 10 degrees after a sub-zero start. Still, I don't see any true arctic air (highs near or below zero, lows either in the minus teens with winds or in the -20s with lighter winds) through early next week.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Wednesday 12/3/2025: Sunny to partly cloudy with perhaps a few afternoon flurries. Windy and turning colder during the afternoon. Low visibility due to blowing snow possible in open areas. Temperatures holding between 13 and 18 through midday, then falling into the plus single digits by late afternoon. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Clear with diminishing wind and the coldest night of the season so far. Low: between -13 and -8 (record cold low: -16 in 1991). Winds: NW 5 MPH, becoming SW during the early morning hours. Wind chill in the minus teens and -20s through midnight. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday 12/4/2025: Sunshine through high clouds through midday. Cloudy during the afternoon with a slight chance for a snow flurry. Windy and continued cold. High: between 8 and 13. Winds: S 8-15 MPH during the morning, SW 15-25 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -20 and -5 during the morning, in the minus single digits during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Thursday Night: Cloudy and not nearly as cold. A chance for a snow flurry. Temperatures holding between 12 and 18. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH evening, 5-10 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday 12/5/2025: Cloudy, not as breezy, and milder. Maybe light snow or flurries during the afternoon. High: between 25 and 30. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH during the morning, NW 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Friday Night: Cloudy with perhaps an evening flurry, then partial clearing during the early morning hours. A bit colder. Low: between +5 and +10. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH evening, N 5 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 12/6/2025: Cloudy, not as breezy, and colder. A chance of light snow or flurries. High: between 12 and 17. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Saturday Night: Partly clear and a bit colder. Low: between -8 and -3. Winds: N 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 12/7/2025: Sunny through some high clouds, light winds, and colder. High: between 5 and 10. Winds: N 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Near average temperatures early next week, then colder Wednesday??? Uncertain chances for light snow Monday and Tuesday????

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Wednesday and Wednesday night, 7 Thursday, 5 Thursday night and Friday, 3 Friday night through Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 24°F (set at midnight Tuesday night); Yesterday's Daytime High: 18°F; Today's Likely High: 24°F (set at midnight and 1 AM Wednesday); Overnight Low (through 2 AM Wednesday): 18°F;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): 0.06 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): TBA

Next Update: Thursday, December 4, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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