Wednesday, November 26, 2025  6:00 AM Updated for Snowfall

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

The Clean-Up Can Begin

The storm actually behaved itself quite nicely as it pushed from Montana through central Minnesota in the past 24 hours (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). This put the area of the steadiest precipitation (along and to the north of the low pressure track; see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). But we needed the wind shift line between light northeast (temperatures in the upper half of the 30's during the day) and stronger north-northeast to north winds (temperatures near freezing; set time to between 19Z and 02Z, 1 and 8 PM, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR surface map) to get enough cold air to produce snow. That changeover happened at my house just before 4 PM and at the St. Cloud Sky Central Airport between 4 and 5 PM (see NWS last 72-hours of St. Cloud observations). The ground temperature quickly dropped to freezing, so snow began to accumulate rather quickly. I measured 4.8 inches of new snow at St. Cloud State University with snow depth ranging from 2 to 6 inches (see latest NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR surface map and last images of College of DuPage north central US radar loop). Duluth Airport had 7.1 inches as of midnight and was still within the band of heavy snow. Rothsay and Baxter also had 7 inches of snow. My major miss was only 0.3 inch as of midnight at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.

The combination of rain and snow was the most substantial precipitation in about a month with 0.74 inch through midnight at the St. Cloud Airport.

The wind shift also produced the stronger winds on the northern flank of the low, so there have been many wind gusts over 40 MPH with some gusts around 50 MPH (see NWS hourly Minnesota weather round-up). St. Cloud has had several wind gusts of 44 MPH between hourly reports (see NWS last 72-hours of St. Cloud observations).

Since this is a wet snow, and there is less than 10 inches of snow on the ground, the drifting will be limited. However, the snow coming on top of the rain has likely produced icy spots lurking underneath the snow pack or on any plowed but untreated surface. As of early morning, all roads are mainly snow and ice covered along and north of a line from Madison to New London to Princeton and Cambridge (see MnDOT Minnesota road reports). This will improve, especially on major roads as the snow area continues to move eastward. However, note that secondary roads, driveways, sidewalks, and parking lots are likely to have ice lurking under any snow cover or on any untreated surface during the morning commute.

For today through Friday, the first wave of the December-like cold will move in. High temperatures are likely to remain no higher than the 20's from today through Saturday. Highs might remain in the upper teens on Friday through the rest of the weekend. The blustery conditions with wind gusts to 40 MPH will continue through today. And northwest winds will still be blowing at 8-15 MPH Wednesday night and Thursday. That will put morning wind chills in the plus single digits and perhaps near zero and afternoon wind chills in the plus single digits to teens. That won't be within the high danger range of the wind chill (see NWS Wind Chill Chart), but staying warm for an hour or more in case of an accident will be difficult. That's why you should pack the ingredients for a cold weather survival kit in your vehicle before doing any Thanksgiving weekend travel.

...With Major Snowfall to East and South of Great Lakes

The lake effect snow machine will get going later this morning along South Shore of Lake Superior as the December-like air moves over the very warm Great Lakes. That will produce major snowfall today and Thursday (see Days 1-2 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast; set tab to 00 UTC Fri and set amounts to 6 inches or more on the NWS WPC Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Guidance). Travel will be quite difficult through Thursday in northern Wisconsin or Upper Michigan.

Saturday Storm More of An Issue???

The major storm that was to develop over the weekend has changed scenarios drastically. The computer forecasts have now rallied around the idea of one strong low and have moved it much further to the north and west. If I take the forecast literally, there would be the potential for a 4-8 inch snowfall in southern Minnesota and 6-12 inches in parts of Iowa from late Friday night through Saturday. The actual storm is the product of multiple storms in the eastern Pacific to the south of Alaska (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), so it's much too early to trust any forecast, let alone the change to a stronger storm. However, I'd be thinking about moving return travel plans for Saturday to a day earlier if the strong storm forecast continues for another day or so.

The northern branch of the storm track will shift, allowing Yukon, Nunavut, and northern Alaska air to push into Minnesota from Sunday well into next week. I don't see any extreme arctic cold yet (high temperatures are still in the plus single digits and teens in north central Canada; see 3 PM Tuesday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), but we could see a prolonged period of highs in the teens and lows in either the plus or the minus single digits. Some wind chills could be in the minus teens. And, we will be sharing this cold with much of the US east of the Rockies (see blue areas, noting number of degrees below normal for the average high temperature between Saturday and Wednesday).

This prolonged period of below freezing temperatures all day will begin to get ice formation going on many Minnesota lakes. However, we won't have the best possible conditions for ice thickening. Areas with the snow cover will have the ice insulated a bit, so it won't get cold quickly. Also, the strong winds expected the next two days and again in the next cold air mass from Sunday into next week will interfere with ice making. I would not expect the ice to be thick enough to be safe through this weekend (see Minnesota DNR recommendations for ice safety).

Links to Ground and Air Travel Conditions

I will be on duty all of this week, due to the high demand for updated weather information. That includes Thanksgiving morning as well as next weekend. As usual, I will have the following link of ground and air travel links all week

• Ground Travel
  • Minnesota
  • Surrounding States
    • Iowa
    • North Dakota
    • South Dakota
    • Nebraska
    • Wisconsin
    • Michigan
  • Surrounding Provinces
    • Manitoba
    • Ontario
• Air Travel
  • Flight Aware Misery Map
  • Flight Aware Delays and Cancellations

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Wednesday 11/26/2025: Blustery and much colder. Cloudy with any lingering flurries ending early in the morning, then a mixture of clouds and sun during the afternoon. Temperature holding between 24 and 29. Winds: NW 20-35 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH through early afternoon, 15-30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH during the middle and late afternoon. Wind chill: between 0 and 20. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20% during the morning, 10% during the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, still a biting breeze, and even colder. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between 0 and +10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Thursday 11/27/2025: Mixed clouds and sun with perhaps a snow flurry, still a biting breeze, and December-like. High: between 22 and 28. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: plus single digits during the morning, teens during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Partly clear, calm winds, and colder. Low: between 5 and 10. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH evening, light NW late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Friday 11/28/2025: Sunshine through thickening high and middle clouds, light winds, and still cold. High: between 18 and 23. Winds: light during the morning, SE 5-10 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Friday Night: Clouding up with a chance of light snow or flurries late at night. Light winds, but not quite as cold. Low: between 12 and 17, rising to near 20 by morning. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: between 0 and +15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Saturday 11/29/2025: A chance of light snow or flurries through the morning, then cloudy with some afternoon flurries, breezy and cold again. Between a dusting and 3 inches of new snow is possible late Friday night through midday Saturday. High: between 18 and 24. Winds: NE-N 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 50%.

Saturday Night: Lingering evening clouds and perhaps a flurry, then partly clear late at night, breezy, and colder with penetrating wind chill. Low: between 5 and 15. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH evening, 5-10 MPH late at night. Wind chill: between -15 and 0. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 11/30/2025: Sunny to partly cloudy with a biting breeze and typical January-like cold. High: between 10 and 15. Winds: WNW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -15 and +5 during the morning, between -10 and +10 during the afternoon.Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Continued colder than average through much of next week (highs in the teens, lows in the single digits either above or below zero)??? Any precipitation chances would be small through next Thursday??

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 6 Tuesday and Tuesday night, 7 Wednesday through Thursday, 6 Thursday through Friday, 3 Friday night and Saturday, 2 Sunday and Monday.

Yesterday's High: 40°F; Overnight Low (through 6 AM Wednesday): 26°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 6 AM Wednesday): 0.77 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Snowfall (through 6 AM Wednesday): 0.75 inch (4.8 inches of snow)

Next Update: Thursday, November 27, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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