St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Helpful Rain Yesterday

Yesterday's afternoon thunderstorms (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) produced a few reports of large hail (see NWS Storm Prediction Center storm reports for June 23). More importantly, central Minnesota picked up significant rain over a relatively large area. Paynesville had 1.33 inches, St. Cloud Sky Central Airport picked up 1.06 inches, Long Prairie 1.03 inch, Buffalo 0.89 inch, Princeton 0.64 inch, Sauk Centre 0.61 inch, Mora 0.58 inch, and Little Falls 0.31 inch.

Sunny Start, Midday and Afternoon Clouds, Scattered Showers Today

The cold front pushed through Minnesota last night (see 24-hour loop of NWS WPC surface maps), but the cold pocket of air aloft associated with the upper air low (counterclockwise circulation on the College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) is right on the Minnesota-Manitoba-Ontario border. Right now, there are lingering showers and thunderstorms in northern and central Minnesota, but more will be triggered after the sun heats up the ground during the morning. So, we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms, with a better than even chance this afternoon in northern Minnesota and still a 40% chance for a scattered shower or thunderstorm in central Minnesota. The rainfall in these storms will only be significant in a few areas (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) and the severe weather threat will be very small (see NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 1 convective outlook), so you may only need some brief period of cover for outdoor activities this afternoon.

Fewer Showers and Drier Tomorrow

This low drifts further into Ontario and Quebec by tomorrow. The air aloft will be cool enough to support an isolated shower (see NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 2 convective outlook), but most plans will go ahead without much disruption.

Summerlike Potential Temperatures This Weekend into Next Week....

The Alaskan storm system (see Pacific mid-troposphere water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) has now pushed to the northwest edge of the College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop. That system will still intensify as it moves into the Pacific Northwest during the weekend. That will push the extreme heat, now in the Southwestern US (see 4 PM CDT Tuesday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), into the Plains (see red areas on the NWS Heat Risk Forecast push from Texas Saturday well into the Plains by Sunday). This will put Minnesota to the north of this heat, so there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance overnight into the early morning. The trouble is trying to assess exactly where this sets up. The computer forecasts have a poor record of forecasting the heat on the northern edge of the outbreak where storms are possible.

...But Uncertain When 90's May Be Possible

While the forecasts try to put highs in the 90's into Minnesota Sunday and at least Monday, I am not quite as sure we will see that kind of heat. However, highs will return to the 80's for the first time since the early part of June. And, dew points will climb back into the uncomfortable 60's this weekend, if not the Florida-like 70's early next week.

At Least Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms Friday Into Weekend

The shower and thunderstorm chance begins to creep up on Friday, although I'd rank the threat as 1 in 3. Over the weekend, the chances for storms are uncertain. I might lean towards Saturday night into Sunday, but I have little confidence in the Friday night-Saturday morning forecast. 

The very sticky air will also mean that some storms could produce severe weather, but I have no confidence in what day the severe weather threat would be the greatest and which part of Minnesota that would affect.

At this point, any cold front forecast would hang up somewhere in Minnesota or Iowa, so at least temperatures in the 80's and uncomfortable humidity would continue well into next week, but with continued uncertain thunderstorm chances. 

During the 7 days beginning today, the Sioux Falls National Weather Service radar will be under repair, so there will be a gap shown on radar (for example, the College of DuPage north central US radar) for any storms headed into Minnesota from the southwest.