St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Janet and I went to see Pressure the movie regarding the D-Day weather forecast. The movie focuses on the two different approaches of the meteorologists, Captain James Stagg, who primarily used current weather data (ground and balloon) and experience to make the forecast, and Colonel Crick, who believed in the analog weather forecast, in which he examined past weather situations that looked similar to the current set-up and made a forecast based on what happened in those past cases.

Now, weather forecasting then was very iffy, since the computer power to simulate the atmospheric processes that create weather weren't available then. Captain Stagg noted that weather forecasts beyond 24 hours were highly uncertain.

However, the debate about using a lot of current conditions is ongoing today. It is expensive to take readings from all those ground and balloon stations. And, there has been some improvement in technology with satellite images and reports from major aircraft flying between continents provide some upper-air data. This has led to some reductions in the upper-air network since the 1950's. There has been a major wave of reductions in upper-air reports over the Plains made due to the DOGE budget cuts in the National Weather Service. While the article linked in the previous sentence tries to take a balanced view of these cuts and the effects noted, I have been alarmed by the reduced number of NWS forecasters, which have resulted in major gaps in the US upper-air network. I have shown the comparison between morning balloon launches and evening launches over the Continental US (reference: University of Wyoming Weather Web). Despite the advances, satellite sensed upper-air still can't provide the large number of readings in the lower atmosphere in balloon observations. This  establishes the thunderstorm potential for the afternoon and early evening, especially after the effect of any overnight thunderstorms on where the ripest air will be during the day. It also is a factor in winter systems since those Plains and central Rockies stations are within a day upwind of Minnesota.

The NWS is also investigating cut-backs in having people who daily measure rainfall, snowfall, and snow depth, replacing it with satellite and aircraft sensing. While these instruments have improved the sensing of snow depth and amount of water locked in the snow pack, they haven't been useful for reporting snow fall and snow depth, especially during a storm. Doppler radar estimates have been used to model rainfall, but there are errors in measurement both in steady winter precipitation and in thunderstorms. 

We will see a degrading of both weather forecasting ability, both during the summer and during the cold season by allowing these cuts.

May in June Weather To Continue With Some Shower Chances  

Meanwhile, the upcoming weather pattern will continue the pattern of the last four days. We have seen the return to near average mid-June temperatures or colder than average temperatures during three of the past four days (highs in the lower 70's, including yesterday). This morning, low temperatures are headed for the 40's (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). 

I now expect our May-like weather in June to continue through this week and into at least the early part of next week. The old low sitting over Ontario and Quebec (see College of DuPage North America satellite water vapor loop) continues to push weather systems from the Canadian Prairie Provinces into the US. As time goes on this week, the low will weaken so the steering winds won't have as much of a northwest-to-southeast aspect, but we will still see air coming from southern Canada or off the Canadian Rockies. That will keep the really humid air to our south, so the best chances for major thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will be kept away from Minnesota (see NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), but we will see a parade of storms in the northern branch of the storm track move near Minnesota, giving us some chances for showers and thunderstorms.

At this point, the best chance for rain appears to be this evening and Tuesday night into Wednesday (possibly redeveloping Wednesday afternoon and evening). Severe weather is unlikely (see Days 1 and 3 of the NWS Storm Prediction Center convective outlook). If we have cloudy skies all day, there could be the possibility of a chilly high temperature only in the lower 60's (some of the computer forecasts have that for Wednesday). However, with the sun highest in the sky and for the longest period of time each day within a week of the June solstice, I think there will likely be some sunny periods each day.

Still, I only expect today's high to be in the near average upper 70's to near 80. Otherwise, highs will be in the 70's with the best chance for 60's Wednesday and Thursday. I don't see a return of 80's through early next week.