St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

St. Cloud ended up being on the northern fringe of yesterday's rain (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop), so we only picked up 0.09 inch while Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport had 0.69 inch and Rochester picked up 1.09 inch. The rain showers have lingered in the eastern half of Minnesota overnight as the upper air low driving the cooler air southeastward has pushed into Minnesota around midnight (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop). 

Coolness Will Continue Until Saturday Afternoon

The combination of clouds and occasional rain limited yesterday's high to 49 degrees (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations), the first high temperature cooler than 50 degrees since May 6. And, even cooler air will stream into Minnesota as the northwest-to-southeast steering winds (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) tap the cooler air in the Canadian Prairie Provinces and the Northwest Territories (highs in the 40's to near 50 despite sunshine on yesterday's 4 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). Highs will be around 50 degrees today.

Tie Down Those Inflatable Decorations Today

The winds will be the other noticeable part of today. The pressure difference between the departing low over Michigan and the cool high in Montana (see latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) will kick up the winds early this morning and those extremely strong winds (15-30 MPH with gusts of 45-50 MPH) will continue into early afternoon. Even late this afternoon, northwest winds will continue to blow at 15-25 MPH with gusts of 35-40 MPH.

Frost Chance Good (Freeze Chance Questionable)

Tonight, the high will push into southern Minnesota and Iowa, calming the winds, especially during the evening. That will give much of central Minnesota a good shot at a first frost (for those areas that didn't get a first frost a couple of weeks ago). A lot of the computer guidance is forecasting a hard freeze (lows colder than 28 degrees), but I see a chance for temperatures remaining near 30. A hard freeze would kill off the ragweed, helping allergy sufferers like my wife and I, but I am trying to keep my hopes down.

The National Weather Service has a freeze watch in central and west central Minnesota (blue) and a freeze warning for Milaca to the St. Croix Valley, and all of central and southern Minnesota south of Hwy. 12 (dark blue on the NWS Twin Cities watch-warning map).

Warming Trend Beginning Midday Saturday...

The coldest of this cold air surge will push eastward by tomorrow afternoon. That will allow the return of above average temperatures with highs near 60 tomorrow and highs in the 60's Sunday through most of next week. Low temperatures could remain in the upper 30's Saturday night, but will be more likely in the 40's as we get into next week.

...With Higher Fire Risk At Least Saturday

Saturday will also see a wind increase. I am not looking for the southwest winds to be as strong as what we will see today, but the warmer and dry air will produce the low relative humidity needed for high to extreme fire danger. At this point, Sunday and early next week doesn't appear to as breezy, but any day with decent winds will continue the fire danger.

Mostly Warmer Than Average Again Next Week (60's? 70's??)

There doesn't appear to be another shot of cool air next week, because a storm will stall in the western US, so our steering winds will blow from southwest to northeast. Instead, we could see some days with highs in the 70's. We don't appear to have a chance of significant rainfall (see Days 1-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) until next weekend at the earliest.