Local Forecast

Tuesday, October 13, 2015 3:30 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast


November Weather Settling in for the Week

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Blustery Monday Produces Wind Gusts Over 50 MPH

Wind dominated yesterday's weather headlines. The top wind gusts in western Minnesota included: Hallock had a gust to 58 MPH, Fosston and Thief River Falls had a gust to 55 MPH, Crookston, Moorhead, Morris and Willmar had had a wind gust of 54 MPH, Fergus Falls 53 MPH, and Alexandria 52 MPH. Winds at the St. Cloud Airport reached 50 MPH at 2:11 PM (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations). In addition, temperatures fell back from the upper 50's around sunrise to the upper 40's during most of the afternoon. So, the 24-hour temperature change between Sunday and Monday afternoon was more than 30 degrees.

Sunshine Helps Today Feel Warmer

This morning, we are deeper into the cold air. Temperatures have slowly dropped into the lower 40's in central Minnesota with upper 30's in northwestern Minnesota and North Dakota (see NWS Aviation Center Dakotas Map). Those temperatures combined with the persistent northwest wind at 10-25 MPH have produced widespread wind chills in the 30's. There was some clearing as the upper-air low pressure system has pushed off to the east (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). There are some high and middle clouds over the Canadian Prairie Provinces and North Dakota, but we should be able to see considerable sunshine today. Temperatures will rebound a little bit with highs climbing into the middle to upper 50's.

The first cold wave will ease out of Minnesota tonight. Low temperatures will drop to around 40 degrees, thanks to a bit of a persistent wind. Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week, but won't approach what we saw last weekend. Highs will climb into the 60's, which is now about 10 degrees milder than the mid-October average high temperature.

Even Colder Air Mass for Late This Week

However, we are well entrenched in a northwest-to-southeast flow pattern (see water vapor loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), so the next reinforcing cold air mass will push into Minnesota beginning Thursday morning. There may be a stray rain shower or two late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning, then the colder air will push in. High temperatures will remain only in the middle 50's with a strong northwest wind. However, these winds won't be as strong as what we saw yesterday.

The next cold air mass looks to be colder than the one we are in now. That means low temperatures on Friday morning will be around freezing with a steady northwest wind. Wind chills by Friday morning are likely to be in the 20's with temperatures around freezing. Friday's high temperature will struggle to climb out of the 40's.

Hard Freeze Friday Night?

The winds will calm a bit Friday night. That would allow a potential widespread killing frost with low temperatures in the 20's. Only the northern third of Minnesota has seen a low temperature of 28 degrees or colder so far this fall, so the growing season could end for a good chunk of northern and central Minnesota by Saturday morning. Temperatures will only recover to near 50 Saturday afternoon.

A warming trend will begin on Sunday. The southeast breeze will come up late Saturday night, so temperatures will drop to around freezing. On Sunday, temperatures will return to the 50's. We may have a longer milder spell this time as temperatures could return to the 60's or 70's early next week. It doesn't mean that we are done with the cooler weather, but that the cooler air has to reload.

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Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Tuesday 10/13: Increasing sunshine, not as windy, and continued cool. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, lighter wind, and continued chilly. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday 10/14: Sunny, breezy, and seasonably warm. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: NW 15-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear with a slight chance of a late night rain shower. Not quite as cool. Low: between 42 and 46. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Thursday 10/15: Mostly cloudy with some afternoon sunny breaks, windy again, and cooler. A slight chance of a rain shower. High: between 52 and 57. Winds: becoming NW 15-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "A Squirrel Will Squawk At Me" (they really hate me...)

Thursday Night: Cloudy evening, clearing late, slowly diminishing wind, and even colder. Low: between 32 and 36. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH evening, 5-15 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday 10/16: A November preview. Partly sunny, breezy and even colder. High: between 42 and 48. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Clearing, less windy and colder. A good chance of a hard freeze. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: N-NE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 10/17: Sunny, light winds, and continued cold. High: between 47 and 52. Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Saturday Night: Mostly clear and not quite as cold, but with a steady breeze. Low: between 32 and 36. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 10/18: Partly sunny, breezy, and more seasonable. High: between 53 and 58. Winds: SE 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Extended: Chance of rain showers Sunday night. Warmer at least Monday. High near 70.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Tuesday and Tuesday night, 7 Wednesday, 6 Wednesday night and Thursday, 5 Thursday night and Friday, 4 Friday night and Saturday, 3 Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 63F (set at 1 AM Monday); Yesterday's Daytime High: 58°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 43F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Tuesday): 0.03 inch; SCSU Precipitation (Through 3 AM Tuesday): TBA

St. Cloud Airport Top Wind Gust: 50 MPH at 2:11 PM

Normal Temperatures for October 13 - High: 58F; Low: 36F
Next Update: Wednesday, October 14, 2015 8:00 AM (or as needed)

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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