Local Forecast


Wednesday, April 23, 2014 2:15 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

"Into Each Life Some Rain Must Fall" - Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

A slow moving storm pushing from the West Coast into the Plains states (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) will dominate our weather for the rest of the work week. The slow pump of warm air over the cooler air near the ground will provide a set-up for increasing amounts of showers and perhaps thunderstorms. There is a narrow strip of rain showers early this morning (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop). And, the low-level air is so dry that only a few stations are reporting rain at the ground (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop). However, those showers will slowly increase over the rest of the night and through the day, making showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm likely by afternoon and tonight. With those thickening clouds, temperatures aren't going to go much of anywhere, staying in the 40's to near 50 today.

There is a wind advisory in west central, southwest, and south central Minnesota this afternoon for southeast winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts as high as 45 MPH this afternoon. We will also see strong southeast winds, which will make those highs in the 40's feel even more awesome.

The storm will move right into the Northern Plains tomorrow, keeping a lot of clouds over us and at least occasional rain showers in our area tomorrow. Temperatures will remain near 40 overnight, then climb into the 50's tomorrow, but it will continue to be cooler than what we've seen the past several days.

The storm will edge eastward tomorrow night and Friday. There is a chance of a few lingering showers, but I'm hopeful that we will see a decent supply of sunshine on Friday. The air over us will still be quite cool so look for highs in the 50's. Friday and Saturday are likely to be the sunniest days of the next 5-7 days with highs continuing in the 50's.

The next major slow-moving storm will push from the Pacific coast into the Central US. Earlier in the week, it looked like this storm could stay far enough to our south to just keep us sunny and on the cool side. However, the track has now changed far enough northward to show a near repeat of the late week storm. We will again be in the cool air near the ground as warm air gets pumped over the top. The difference is that there could be a lot more moisture available to make more heavy precipitation. That means that showers and thunderstorms could spread into our area during Sunday.

Forecasts have been holding out the possibility of some snow mixed into any rain for this weekend storm. At this point, I see conditions warm enough for just rain, albeit a cold rain. On top of this, it's really hard for one of these storms to pump out snow, despite our "success" of getting April snows this year and last year. If I see the temperatures at ground level cool some more in later computer forecasts, I'll put in the chance, but for now, look for another cold rain trying to develop from Sunday into the first part of next week.

It is warm season severe weather awareness week this week. You can find information about safety steps in severe weather through links provided by the National Weather Service and the Minnesota Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. Last night, my county tested its new automated calling system which will call homes in case of a severe weather warning. The statewide tornado drill is Thursday.

See Forecast Below

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

Discussion Links Forecast

Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Forecast:

Wednesday 4/23: Cloudy with rain or showers developing in the afternoon. Perhaps a thunderstorm. Breezy and cooler. High: between 47 and 52. Winds: SE 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.

Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Low: between 38 and 43. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 90%.

Thursday 4/24: Lingering morning showers. Then, cloudy in the afternoon with a chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: W 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50% .

Thursday Night: Chance of evening rain showers, then cloudy and a shade cooler. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: NW 10-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Friday 4/25: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and cooler with a chance of an occasional rain shower. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: N 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.


End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Friday Night: Clearing, less windy, and cooler. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: E 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 4/26: Sunshine through high clouds and continued on the cool side. High: between 54 and 58. Winds: E 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Saturday Night: Thickening clouds, breezy, and cool. Low: between 32 and 36. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Sunday 4/27: Cloudy with a chance of a cold rain developing. High: between 44 and 48. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Extended: More rain and showers Sunday night into Monday. Lows near 40. Highs near 50.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Wednesday, 7 Wednesday night and Thursday, 6 Thursday night and Friday, 5 Friday night and Saturday, 3 Saturday night and Sunday, 2 Monday

Yesterday's High: 60F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM): 44F
St. Cloud Prison Storm Total Precipitation (through 2 AM): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 2 AM): None

Normal Temperatures for April 23 - High: 61F; Low: 36F
Next Update: Thursday, April 24, 2014 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

Discussion Links Forecast