Local Forecast


Friday, August 8, 2014 3:46 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

More Clouds, But Storms Likely Hold Off Until Sunday

The storms are a bit further away, so we enjoyed a good supply of sunshine yesterday, although there were middle and high clouds in the afternoon. (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) Still, St. Cloud enjoyed another day with highs well up into the 80's (see Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany). This morning there are a few more dull gray low clouds on satellite (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), so our mixture of sun and clouds will likely continue both today and tomorrow. Still, with the main batch of showers and thunderstorms now in Nebraska and Kansas (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop), it will take quite a bit of work to get storms going closer to us. So, look for only a slight chance of showers tonight through tomorrow night. The added clouds should knock our high temperatures back a bit to the lower 80's, while keeping overnight lows in the 60's.

On Sunday, a cold front will push into Minnesota, spreading the chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. I now think the front will be moving a bit more quickly, so even central Minnesota should see storms in the middle to late afternoon. This looks to be our only decent shot at rainfall over the next 5-7 days. Right now, it doesn't look like the upper level winds will be strong enough to produce severe weather.

Slightly cooler and much drier air will move in behind this cold front. However, with fewer clouds, high temperatures on Monday should actually be warmer than over the weekend with readings in the middle to upper 80's and perhaps even a run at 90 in southern Minnesota. The winds will die down a bit Monday night, allowing temperatures to fall back to the 50's. Look for highs in the lower 80's on Tuesday.

It now looks like the rest of next work week will be a repeat of this week with a slow warm up. There will be big heat in the Rockies and showers and thunderstorms to our west as the hotter tries to move eastward, but I don't see a decent push here until the second half of next week. That's when we could see storms. Any major cooling off has been delayed until next weekend.

The first full week of August in St. Cloud has yet to produce a high lower than 80 and is averaging about a degree and a half warmer than normal. The drying that began in mid-July continues into August with only 0.17 inch of rain so far. Since July 14, there has been only .59 inch of rain (2.72 inches average).

Hurricane Iselle is still a minimal hurricane with top winds of 75 MPH. It began lashing the Big island of Hawaii earlier tonight and will continue to pack winds of 65-75 MPH. There will also be heavy rains and some flooding tides. There are tropical storm warnings for Maui and Oahu (where Honolulu is) through tomorrow, although the storm is expected to weaken a bit. This is the first direct hurricane strike on the Hawaiian Islands in 21 years.

Just to the east of Iselle is Hurricane Julio. The storm has intensified with top winds of 115 MPH. It is possible that this storm will follow Iselle towards the Hawaiian Islands by the weekend. It could also retain hurricane strength, but if it tracks to the north of the Hawaiian Islands, they will be exposed to the weaker side of the storm (left side relative to the motion). Further updates will be coming from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

This is my last forecast discussion until late in the week of August 21.

See Forecast Below

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Current Watches/Warnings

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Forecast:

Friday 8/8: Partly sunny and noticeably humid. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, maybe some fog late. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 62 and 66. Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Saturday 8/9: Lots of clouds with a few sunny breaks and noticeably humid. A slight chance of a rain shower. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 60 and 65. Winds: S 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Sunday 8/10: Mixed clouds and sun and uncomfortably humid. A better chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Sunday Night: Maybe a lingering evening shower, then turning less humid late. Low: between 58 and 62. Winds: NE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.


End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Monday 8/11: Sunny, breezy, very warm, but drier. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: N 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Clear, cooler, and less humid. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: NE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday 8/11: Sunny, seasonably warm and dry. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Extended: Warming trend mid-week with chance of late week storms???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Friday through Saturday night, 6 Sunday and Sunday night, 5 Monday through Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 85°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 64F
St. Cloud Airport Rainfall (Since 7 AM Thursday): None; SCSU Rainfall (Since 7 AM Thursday): None

Normal Temperatures for August 8 - High: 81F; Low: 57F
Next Update: Friday, August 22, 2014 8:00 AM (out of town August 11-21)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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