Local Forecast


Monday, September 22, 2014 3:17 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Heat-quinox Pattern All Week

The average high temperature for St. Cloud has now fallen back into the upper 60's, we are down to 12 hours of daylight today, and more leaves are turning. However, after relatively chilly days Friday and Sunday, temperatures will return to late summer readings today and pretty much stay there through the weekend. Highs will generally be in the 70's today through Wednesday with upper 70's to near 80 Thursday into the weekend. It will feel a bit more fall-like in the morning, thanks to relatively dry air. This morning is a bit chilly, especially in the usual cold spots like Paynesville (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop), but lows will generally be in the upper 40's tonight, then climb into the 50's the rest of the week.

There is only one storm system directly upwind of us, as you can see from the infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). That's a chunk of moisture that has moved from the Southwestern US into Nevada and Utah over the weekend. There is a low pressure area associated with it (see counterclockwise circulation on the water vapor loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). This system has been trying to bring Gulf of California moisture to the Intermountain Region, touching off thunderstorms each afternoon, but this system has far less moisture available than the remnants of hurricane Odile which hit southern Arizona and New Mexico and west Texas.

This system will drift into the High Plains over the next couple of days. That will bring a fair amount of clouds into the area late tomorrow into Wednesday. I have a small chance of rain showers Tuesday night and Wednesday, but the computer forecasts are bringing relatively little moisture into the area.

Anyway, it appears this Nevada storm will be the only system breaking up our potentially sunny and warm late September week. That moisture will push northeastward by Wednesday night, allowing enough ground moisture to limit lows to the 50's but that will about do it. High pressure will strengthen and park itself over the Ohio Valley, leaving us in the southwest winds to the west of the high, so we will remain warm and dry. Our weather winning streak looks like it will continue right into the weekend.

By the way, today isn't the first day of meteorological fall. That began on September 1. So far, September 2014 has been right about on target with nearly average temperatures. The early month rain gave us more than the entire September usual supply, but the recent drier pattern hasn't advanced the rain into record territory.

See Forecast Below

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

Discussion Links Forecast

Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Forecast:

Monday 9/22: More sunshine, not as windy, and warmer. High: between 72 and 76. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Clear, light winds, and cool. Maybe some patchy fog. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: SW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday 9/23: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and continued warm. High: between 72 and 76. Winds: S 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Clouding up, breezy, and milder. A chance of rain or showers. Low: between 47 and 52. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Wednesday 9/24: Mixed clouds and sun with occasional rain or showers. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: S 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with perhaps a shower and some dense fog. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: S 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Thursday 9/25: Partly sunny, breezy, and warmer. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Thursday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and milder. Low: between 54 and 58. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday 9/26: Partly sunny, breezy, warm, and becoming noticeably humid. High: between 76 and 82. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and mild. Low: between 52 and 56. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 9/27: Sunny and definitely not fall-like. High: between 76 and 82. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Extended: Sunshine through high clouds and continued warm. Highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Monday and Monday night, 7 Tuesday, 6 Tuesday night through Thursday, 5 Thursday night through Saturday, 3 Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 69°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 47°F
St. Cloud Airport Rainfall (Since 7 AM Sunday): None; SCSU Rainfall (Since 7 AM Sunday): None

Normal Temperatures for September 22 - High: 68F; Low: 44F
Next Update: Tuesday, September 23, 2014 8:00 AM
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

Discussion Links Forecast