Local Forecast


Thursday, June 30, 2016 2:05 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Few Morning Rain Showers, Then a Dry Weekend

Discussion Links Forecast

However, the next storm system has again triggered showers and thunderstorms from the Dakotas into western Nebraska and Kansas (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). The storms produced several incidents of 60-75 MPH wind gusts in western and central South Dakota, closing parts of I-90 for a while last evening as several trucks and campers were blown over.

Those storms have pushed into eastern Nebraska during the early morning hours (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop).

There is a cold front pushing through North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota (see NWS WPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map). The cause is a strong low pressure system moving southward in Manitoba (see counterclockwise circulation on water vapor loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). The northwest to southeast motion means that the area with the best lift and moisture that triggered yesterday's storms will mostly stay to our south. However, when the front comes through this morning, we will have a lot of clouds and a good chance of a few scattered showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm. I don't expect any severe weather or any heavy rainfall from this system.

The storms may tend to regenerate this afternoon over the southern third of Minnesota, but we should see mixed clouds and sun this afternoon, a strong northwest wind, and drier air. After a cool start due to all of the clouds, highs should still make it into the upper half of the 70's to near 80.

The drier air from Canada will again surge in behind this cold front and dominate our weather through the weekend. I'm a bit more optimistic about the later portions of the holiday weekend. The latest forecasts have the new storm in northern California (counterclockwise rotating swirl on the water vapor loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) tracking through the central Rockies and then the Plains of Kansas into Missouri. That should leave the northern extent of the rainfall no closer to us than southern Iowa. If this works out, look for sunny days with highs in the low to middle 70's tomorrow, in the upper 70's Saturday and Sunday, and near 80 on Monday. Lows will be in the lower 50's and even the middle to upper 40's.

Weather systems will begin to more from west to east across the northern half of the US next week. That would set us up for more frequent chances for rain and changeable conditions.

With one day to go, June will end up being a warmer-than-average (temperature 67.5°F, 2.2°F above average through Tuesday) and drier than average (3.28 inches through Tuesday, about 0.7 inch below average with some rain possible today) month. However, St. Cloud is on the edge of drier conditions through Benton and especially Mille Lacs Counties (less than 3 inches of rain) and wetter conditions in central Stearns, Kandiyohi and Meeker Counties (more than 5 inches of rain for the month). The part of Minnesota that is badly short of rain is near Lake Traverse, Lac qui Parle, and the South Dakota border near Ortonville and Madison with less than 2 inches of rain. Northwestern and north central Minnesota have seen more than 7 inches of rain with over 10 inches of rain in Koochiching County.

Discussion Links Forecast

Forecast:

Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Thursday 6/30: Scattered morning showers and thunderstorms. Then, partial clearing during the afternoon, breezy, and turning drier. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH, becoming NW 10-20 MPH midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50% through 2 PM, 20% after 2 PM.

Thursday Night: Clear, breezy, and cooler. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday 7/1: Sunny, light winds, and drier. High: between 73 and 78. Winds: E 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Clear, light winds, and cool. Low: between 42 and 47. Winds: light SE. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 7/2: Sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon, and a shade warmer. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Clear, calm, and cool. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: S 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 7/3: Sunny, breezy, and seasonably warm. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "A Squirrel Will Squawk At Me" (they really hate me...)

Sunday Night: Clear, calm, and cool. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: S 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday 7/4: Sunny, breezy, and a shade warmer. High: between 77 and 82. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Extended: Warming into early next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Thursday through Saturday, 6 Saturday night and Sunday, 5 Sunday night and Monday.

Yesterday's High: 79F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM): 56F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None

Normal Temperatures for June 30 - High: 81F; Low: 58F
Next Update: Friday, July 1, 2016 8:00 AM (or as needed)

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

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Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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