Saturday, July 4, 2015 10:18 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast
Go Fourth and Celebrate
Minor Storm Chances Until Sunday Night
The next surge of the hot and humid air has begun. The smoke is cutting down on our sunshine, but highs should still reach the middle 80's today. There will be a bit of a breezy, but the dew points have already reached the uncomfortable lower 60's, so it will be humid. We may have a shot at a shower or thunderstorm Saturday night, but I'd rate the chances right now at 1 out of 5, so I wouldn't worry about any Independence Day celebrations. The main safety tip for the holiday is to bring sunscreen and plenty of water, since it will get uncomfortably humid and we aren't used to this heat.
90(?) Sunday, Followed by Sunday Night Storms
Tomorrow will be another day of warm temperatures, uncomfortable humidity, and our shot at seeing 90 degrees for a high. There may be an early shower or thunderstorm (most likely to our north), but we should get through the day rain-free.
Tomorrow night, however, the cold front will move through overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over the Dakotas in the afternoon and push eastward during the evening hours. There is a chance that some storms could produce large hail and damaging winds, but the best threat of that will be to our west. With the humid air around, there could be the potential for heavy rain, but it looks like this front will have a steady southeast push to it, which would limit the threat for enough rain to cause flooding.
This cold front will once again beat back the hot air dominating the West (100's again yesterday throughout the Pacific Northwest, Idaho and even southeastern British Columbia), so it looks like drier and cooler air will push in. If we clear out the clouds early enough on Monday, we could still see highs around 80, but drier air will return. The Canadian air will be in full effect Tuesday with morning temperatures near 50 rising only to the middle to upper 70's. Right now, it looks like only high clouds on Wednesday with highs still in the 70's to near 80.
Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"
Saturday 7/4: Sunshine through high clouds and smoke, very warm, and uncomfortably humid. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: becoming S 5-15 MPH by afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Fireworks Weather (around 9-10 PM): Partly clear, very warm, and humid. Temperatures in the upper 70's to near 80. Winds: S 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.
Saturday Night: Partly clear, breezy, warm and humid. A slight chance of a late night thunderstorm. Low: between 65 and 70. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.
Sunday 7/5: Sunny, breezy, hot, and uncomfortably humid. A chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 87 and 92. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.
Confidence Level: "The Twins Will Finish Above .500"
Sunday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms could produce severe weather. Low: between 66 and 72. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH, becoming NW late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 70%.
Monday 7/6: Early showers giving way to afternoon sun, breezy, not quite as warm, and turning less humid as the day goes on. High: between 78 and 83. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.
Monday Night: Partly to mostly clear, breezy, cooler, and drier. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Tuesday 7/7: Sunny through perhaps some smoke, not as windy, and warm with comfortable humidity. High: between 73 and 78. Winds: W 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"
Extended: Sunshine through high clouds on Wednesday. High upper 70's to near 80. Storms possible on Thursday????
Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will
cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Friday through Saturday, 6 Saturday night and Sunday, 5 Sunday night and Monday, 4 Monday night and Tuesday, 3 Wednesday.
Yesterday's High: 81°F; Overnight Low (through 9 AM): 57°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 9 AM Saturday): None; SCSU Precipitation (Through 9 AM Saturday): None
Normal Temperatures for July 4 - High: 82°F;
Next Update: Sunday, July 5, 2015 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Ground and Air Travel
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU
meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!
Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so,
go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.