Thursday, May 23, 2013 4:29 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast
"Here Comes the Sun"
Last Day of Rain...Really
The spotty drizzle became a steady light rain again yesterday afternoon, producing yet another 0.12 inch of rain at the St. Cloud Regional Airport (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations). That's the seventh straight day with measurable rainfall. The record for consecutive rainy days is 12 days, set in late May and early June 1991. This is the 37th streak of at least 7 days, with the last one in July of 2002.
This brings the total rainfall since Friday to 3.72 inches. The average rainfall for the entire month of May is 2.95 inches. This rainfall is also more than St. Cloud got in the entire months of June through December of last year. However, we are not even close to cracking the top 10 of May rainfall, which includes last May's 8.76 inches. Those drier months were mainly responsible for the ground water shortage coming into this spring (the US Drought Monitor will be updated later this morning).
However, the clouds have finally given way. The infrared loop from College
of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu shows that the clouds have pushed to the south and east, so we will actually see a good supply of sunshine today. With all of the recent moisture, there will be some afternoon clouds mixing with the sun, but high temperatures will climb well into the 60's, a good 10-15 warmer than the past two days. Skies will remain clear tonight, so temperatures will drop. Some of the dew points in southern Canada are in the 20's, but I think that the leftover moisture on the ground will limit our low temperatures to the middle to upper 30's. Frost is quite possible from Brainerd and points north.
Tomorrow, we'll see a good supply of sun again with highs in the upper 60's to near 70.
More Clouds, Maybe Some Showers Saturday and Sunday
However, by late Friday, we will find ourselves on the north edge of a push of warmer air towards the Northern Plains. Unfortunately, it looks like the warm air will stall out across Nebraska and Iowa, putting us on the cool side of the developing warm front. This could produce some showers and thunderstorms, but in this case, it looks like most of the moisture will be trapped in the cooler air, so it will be hard to generate thunderstorms. Unfortunately, that will create a lot of low clouds that will knock temperatures down again. So, I'm only looking for some spotty rain or drizzle Friday night and Saturday, but I think high temperatures will get stuck in the upper 50's to near 60 on Saturday.
There might be a slightly higher chance of a few thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning, then look for another day with a lot of clouds and perhaps a bit more sun. I don't see any all day rainfall either Saturday or Sunday, so there will be plenty of chances for outdoor activities. We could even see some sunny breaks in the afternoon, especially on Sunday. However, don't expect the feel of summer as highs will remain in the cool 60's at best.
This set-up will continue through early next week with a slow warming trend. There may be a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms after the holiday weekend and temperatures should slowly trend upward in the upper 60's to lower 70's.
At least the ice is finally out on most Minnesota lakes.
The pollen levels will jump today and tomorrow as all of that rain combined with the sunshine will allow the plants to get excited. Look for pollen to be in the high category today and tomorrow.
Thursday 5/23: Sunny to partly cloudy and drying out. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.
Thursday Night: Clear and cooler. Maybe some fog. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: light SE. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.
Friday 5/24: Sunny with some afternoon high clouds and more seasonable. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty
Friday Night: Cloudy with spotty rain or drizzle. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.
Saturday 5/25: Mostly cloudy with some spotty rain or drizzle. Cool. High: between 57 and 62. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.
Saturday Night: Cloudy with a better chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.
Sunday 5/26: Early shower or thunderstorm, then mostly cloudy with perhaps a few sunny breaks in the afternoon. Breezy but still cool. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy with a chance of a late night shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.
Monday 5/27: Mixed clouds and sun with a chance of a morning shower or thunderstorm. Breezy and warmer. High: between 67 and 72. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.
Extended: Better chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday?? Highs in the 70's. Lows in the 50's.
Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will
cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Thursday through Friday, 5 Friday night and Saturday, 3 Saturday night and Sunday, 2 Sunday night and Monday.
Yesterday's High: 51°F (set at 8 PM); Yesterday's Daytime High: 50°F; This Morning's Low (through 5 AM): 43°F
St. Cloud 24-Hour Precipitation (Through 4 AM): 0.12 inch; SCSU Precipitation (Through 4 AM): TBA; St. Cloud Airport Rainfall Since Friday: 3.78 inches (average May rainfall: 2.95 inches)
Normal Temperatures for May 23 - High: 71°F;
Next Update: Friday, May 24 8:00 AM (at conference early next week)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU
meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!
Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so,
go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.