Local Forecast

Monday, August 3, 2015 4:00 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast


Canadian Air Conditioning Early, Back Under the Shower Head Late Week

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The line of morning storms came through St. Cloud while they were shriveling yesterday morning (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). The St. Cloud Airport only saw a trace of rain from these storms (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations). By midday, the drier Canadian air began to move in. The high temperature still broke 80 degrees, but the dew points had fallen from the uncomfortable middle 60's in the morning to the drier 50's by late afternoon.

This morning, we are deeper into the cool and dry air mass, carried by the high pressure area moving into Montana and North Dakota. Temperatures have widely cooled into the lower 50's in central Minnesota with readings already in the 40's at Little Falls and Paynesville (see NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map). These are the coldest places in Minnesota since it is cloudier in northern Minnesota, closer to a secondary cold front. St. Cloud hasn't had a low in the 40's in nearly a month (July 7,8), but we will likely break that streak this morning or tomorrow morning.

Without any measurable rain from that front, St. Cloud has now had 5 straight days without measurable rainfall. There haven't been 6 straight dry days since the last 6 days of April. For a longer streak than that, we'd have to go back to March 3-15.

So, we begin the week with September-like weather. Highs will be in the 70's today and in the upper 70's to near 80 tomorrow. Lows each night will drop into the 40's with perhaps even 30's in northern Minnesota. We will remain rain-free until the next attempt to throw warm, humid air over the cooler air near the ground. That will most likely happen late Wednesday and especially Wednesday night and Thursday. The front will stall across Minnesota, so even though we begin with dry air, it should have a good chance of producing August's first substantial rainfall. Wednesday night and Thursday look like our best chance for showers and thunderstorms. I actually don't expect to see much sun on Thursday. It may not be raining all the time, but it should rain often enough to keep a lot of clouds in the area.

We don't appear to clear up behind the storms until Friday. The long-range forecasts show Minnesota trying to get a taste of the heat that has reestablished itself with some triple-digit highs along the entire West Coast into Washington and Idaho. We've seen some false alarms with this trend in the past, though.

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Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Monday 8/3: Sunny, breezy, seasonably cool and dry. High: between 74 and 78. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Clear with diminishing wind and a bit chillier. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: N 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday 8/4: Sunny, not quite as breezy, and continued seasonably cool. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear and continued cool. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: light E. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday 8/5: Partly sunny and warmer. A chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Wednesday Night: Clouding up with a good chance of showers or thunderstorms. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: light E. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Confidence Level: "The Twins Will Finish Above .500"

Thursday 8/6: Mostly cloudy and humid with showers and thunderstorms likely, both early in the morning and late in the day. Very humid. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: E 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 70%.

Thursday Night: Occasional rain showers or drizzle, tapering off after midnight. Continued uncomfortably humid. Low: between 62 and 66. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.

Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Friday 8/7: Partly sunny with a slight chance of a shower, warmer, and not quite as humid. High: between 78 and 83. Winds: light N. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: More storms possible Friday night into Saturday?

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Monday through Tuesday, 7 Tuesday night, 6 Wednesday and Wednesday night, 5 Thursday, 4 Thursday night, 3 Friday.

Yesterday's High: 83F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 52F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): Trace; SCSU Precipitation (Through 3 AM Monday): None

Normal Temperatures for August 3 - High: 82F; Low: 58F
Next Update: Tuesday, August 4, 2015 8:00 AM (or as needed)

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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