Local Forecast

Wednesday, October 26, 2016 7:20 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast


Heaviest Rain Gone, But the Miserable Remains

Our dry spell has been broken by a storm system that pushed from Wyoming and Nebraska into the Dakotas overnight (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). There were thunderstorms involved in west central Minnesota yesterday afternoon and in southern Minnesota overnight. The heaviest rain totals have been in southern Minnesota with Fairmont getting 2.78 inches, Jackson 1.37 inch, Rochester reporting 1.36 inches, and New Ulm 1.09 inch as of 3 AM. In central Minnesota, Morris picked up 1.74 inch, Ortonville 1.15 inch, Paynesville has seen 0.99 inch, Sauk Centre had 0.94 inch, Long Prairie had 0.62 inch (with some occasional sleet mixed in), Little Falls had 0.53 inch, Buffalo had received 0.45 inch, and the St. Cloud Airport has picked up 0.70 inch through 7 AM (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations). This has pushed October rainfall back above average to 2.47 inches (see St. Cloud preliminary October high-low temperature table from the National Weather Service).

As the main low has pushed to the western border of Minnesota in the early morning hours (see water vapor loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), most of the heavier rain showers have pushed further to the east or stayed across south central and southeastern Minnesota (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop). However, with all of the rain locally and an east wind continuing to blow in air where the rain showers will remain, we will likely have light rain or sprinkles for a good chunk of the morning and lingering clouds for most of the day. There may be a few sunny breaks this afternoon. All of the clouds and the moisture won't allow much heating from the early morning temperatures in the low to middle 40's (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart). If we get a bit of sunshine, temperatures may have a shot at 50 degrees, but that will about do it.

Clearing will most likely hold off until tonight. Still, with the overnight rainfall, some fog is possible in central and southern Minnesota. Temperatures will drop to the middle 30's.

The drying process will begin tomorrow with partly sunny skies and temperatures returning to the near average middle 50's. The next storm system will stay mostly north of the Canadian border as it pushes through Friday into Friday night. There might be a chance of a late day shower on Friday into Friday evening, but with a lot of sunshine, high temperatures should climb back into the 60's.

The low will pull its cold front through Minnesota early Friday evening, so temperatures will fall back into the 30's by Saturday morning and only rebound to the lower half of the 50's by afternoon. Expect a rather chilly Saturday night with temperatures bottoming out near freezing. We'll be back on a warming trend after early Sunday with highs back in the upper 50's on Sunday and possibly back into the 60's on Monday.

The overall weather pattern will continue to feature strong storms periodically pushing into the West Coast, continuing the coastal rains and Washington State snows seen over the past week. Those storms will push inland, but several of them won't have a lot of moisture left over from their mountain trip. The frequent storms, however, will continue to supply us with a roller coaster of temperatures into next week.

There is a late season Pacific hurricane to the west of Mexico. Hurricane Seymour is extremely strong with top winds of 150 MPH. The storm is moving westward, but is expected to curve to the north through the end of the work week. Winds aloft and warm ocean water are favorable for the storm to remain strong today, but weakening is expected tomorrow and Friday. Major effects on land are not being forecast.

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Confidence Level: "The Next 2 Weeks Will Seem Like Three Months"

Wednesday 10/26: Mostly cloudy with occasional light rain or sprinkles, breezy, and even chillier. Maybe a few sunny breaks by late in the day. High: between 44 and 48. Winds: E 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%

Wednesday Night: Partial clearing with areas of fog forming. Low: between 34 and 38. Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 10/27: Mixed sun and clouds and not quite as cool. High: between 54 and 58. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Thursday Night: Partly clear, breezy. and not quite as cool. Low: between 46 and 52. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday 10/28: Mostly sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon, breezy, and warmer. A slight chance of a late day shower. High: between 64 and 68. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH, becoming NW in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%

Confidence Level: "There Will Be Life After This Election"

Friday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy with perhaps an evening shower, breezy, and cooler. Low: between 37 and 42. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Saturday 10/29: Mixed sun and clouds, breezy, and cooler. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Confidence Level: "There Will Be Intelligent Life After This Election"

Saturday Night: Clearing, light winds, and chilly. Low: between 30 and 35. Winds: light E. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 10/30: Sunny and a bit warmer. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: S 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Extended: Becoming warmer again Monday with highs in the 60's.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Wednesday, 7 Wednesday night and Thursday, 6 Thursday night and Friday, 5 Friday night and Saturday, 3 Saturday night and Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 51F; Overnight Low (through 7 AM): 42F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 7 AM Wednesday): 0.70 inch; SCSU Precipitation (through 7 AM Wednesday): 0.74 inch

Normal Temperatures for October 26 - High: 52F; Low: 32F
Next Update: Thursday, October 27 8:00 AM

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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