Local Forecast


Tuesday, September 16, 2014 3:32 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

The Return of September Temperatures

Moderating Trend to Continue (70 Today or Tomorrow??)

The average temperature for September 16 and 17 is 70 degrees. We will finally see a return to those temperatures today. This morning, temperatures are beginning a bit on the cool side with readings in central Minnesota within a few degrees of 40 (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop). We will again see some mid-30's surrounding St. Cloud, but under strong sunshine (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), highs will climb to the upper 60's and perhaps reach 70 degrees. The warm temperatures will continue tomorrow with lows again around 40 and highs near 70. This would be the first 70 degree high since last Tuesday.

There is some really chilly air in central and northern Manitoba behind the cold front (see NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map) that has pushed southward (see 24-hour loop of NWS WPC surface charts).. since Saturday morning has been upward. We had a lot more clouds on Saturday night, so there was no second frost. And, despite a fair amount of clouds yesterday afternoon, temperatures returned to the lower 60's each day, which is merely 5-10 degrees cooler than average. This is the week that average high temperatures drop back into the upper 60's, but our temperatures will likely be near normal through much of the work week with above normal temperatures possible late in the week.

We are waking up to a lot of low and middle clouds this morning (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), thanks to a weak reinforcing cold front that has pushed across Minnesota (see 24-hour loop of NWS WPC N. American surface charts). However, the brunt of that cold air is headed to Quebec, New York and New England (see NWS HPC Short-Range forecast map). In Minnesota, the back edge of the front will come through, so we'll merely see a wind shift to east and southeast on Wednesday and Thursday. The shallow cool air will continue to produce seasonable highs near 70 here, but will hold off warmer and more humid air from making it here until Friday afternoon. The shallow cool air will also make it possible for the warm and sticky air to move over the top of the cool air on Thursday night, producing some scattered showers and thunderstorms.

It looks like we will break out into the humid air on Friday as dew points climb to the uncomfortable middle to upper 60's. If we get enough sun, temperatures could push into the 80's, but I'm keeping highs in the 70's with a lot of clouds around.

A cold front will push into Minnesota Friday night, giving us our best shot at showers and thunderstorms. The front will get through Minnesota, but the main upper-level low will wait to come through until Saturday afternoon. That could trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. We will finally clear out and dry off by Sunday. However, we won't be tapping any cool air masses from northern Canada, so highs will continue to make it into the 70's. Temperatures may back off a bit early next week, but only to highs in the 60's, which is the average temperature for the third week of September.

Odile Moisture Approaching SW Deserts

Hurricane Odile has now been downgraded to a tropical storm since much of its circulation is over northwestern Mexico (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). Here's a better look. Top winds are down to 65 MPH and the storm will slowly weaken. However, the area of rain will continue to approach the Southwest Deserts, starting to produce major rainfall by mid-week. While this rain is needed, any moderate rainfall over the deserts will lead to more flooding problems.

In the central Atlantic, Edouard has strengthened with top winds of 115 MPH. Top winds may reach 120 MPH or stronger today, but it is well out to sea, missing Bermuda.On the forecast path, it will be a problem for shipping and something to dodge for Trans-Atlantic flights from South America, but that will about do it.

See Forecast Below

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

Discussion Links Forecast

Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Forecast:

Tuesday 9/16: Sunny, breezy, and a return to seasonable temperatures. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Partly clear and cool again. Low: between 38 and 43. Winds: W 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday 9/17: Mostly sunny, light winds, and continued warm. High: between 68 and 72. Winds: light E. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy and cool. Low: between 40 and 45. Winds: E 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 9/18: Sunshine through high clouds and seasonably warm again. High: between 67 and 72. Winds: SE 10-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, breezy, and milder. Low: between 52 and 56. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Friday 9/19: A chance of an early shower or thunderstorm, then some afternoon sun, breezy, warmer, and uncomfortably humid. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.


End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Friday Night: Cloudy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Warm and sticky. Low: between 62 and 68. Winds: becoming W 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Saturday 9/20: Partly sunny, still warm, and humid, with a chance of a few afternoon showers. High: between 74 and 78. Winds: W 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Saturday Night: Showers ending evening, then partial clearing, breezy, and turning less humid. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Sunday 9/21: Sunny, breezy, and warm, but not as humid. High: between 72 and 76. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Extended: A shade cooler on Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 60's.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Tuesday through Wednesday, 7 Wednesday night and Thursday, 6 Thursday night and Friday, 5 Friday night and Saturday, 3 Saturday night and Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 64°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 42°F
St. Cloud Airport Rainfall (Since 7 AM Monday): None; SCSU Rainfall (Since 7 AM Monday): None

Normal Temperatures for September 16 - High: 70F; Low: 47F
Next Update: Wednesday, September 17, 2014 8:00 AM
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

Discussion Links Forecast