Local Forecast


Wednesday, September 28, 2016 3:15 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Not So Fast My Friend

Lingering Clouds for a While Today?

We had a "bonus day" of sunshine on Monday, but the slow-moving low pressure system that has dominated the weather during the past 5 days struck back at northern and eastern Minnesota yesterday. One of the smaller lows circulating around the big low swung from Ontario into Minnesota (see water vapor loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), throwing clouds and some light rain showers (of course when I was outside) yesterday afternoon. All of those clouds kept high temperatures only in the middle 50's and there was still that stiff northwest wind, with gusts as high as 30 MPH (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations). Overnight, we have remained under the low clouds (see Colorado State RAMDIS Western US Fog/Reflectivity Product), which have kept temperatures in the 40's (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop).

The upper-air low should begin to nudge southeastward today when it is done buying pasties in western Upper Michigan (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). The main question is whether it will push far enough away to allow us to see some sun. So, look for a lot of clouds to begin the day, but we could see some afternoon sunny breaks. It won't be quite as windy, but highs will still be limited to the lower 60's. Tonight, we should finally see some clearing. The breeze will stay up enough to keep fog away, but temperatures will drop back into the 40's. The wind will be the main factor keeping temperatures out of the 30's.

Then, Sunny and Dry Into Weekend

The low will loop-the-loop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, wobbling back towards Kentucky and Indiana by late in the week (see NWS WPC three-day steering wind forecast). That will be far enough away to allow us to see sunshine tomorrow into Saturday. High temperatures will make it back into the 60's tomorrow and be near 70 Friday and Saturday. Right now, I see lows staying in the 40's, since the northeast winds will be blowing overnight.

It is possible that the low could wobble close enough to us by Saturday to throw more clouds into the area. There could be some high and middle clouds from the slow moving storm that has been parked off near southern California and Baja California over the past week (see water vapor loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), but these systems tend to be poorly predicted. So, I'm keeping a mixture of sun and clouds going.

The weather pattern isn't forecast to begin moving again until the strong storm now approaching the British Columbia coast pushes through the western US. That may not happen until Monday, so if we can get rid of the low clouds, Minnesota will be a winner in this stalled weather pattern.

Typhoon Megi Weakens On Approach to China

Typhoon Megi hit Taiwan yesterday, the third typhoon to strike Taiwan in the past two weeks. The storm packed wind gusts of 135 MPH and produced heavy rainfall. 4 people were killed on Taiwan, three of whom were in a tour bus that tipped over due to the strong winds. Around 300 people were injured. The storm continued westward, striking eastern China early this morning. It had weakening to tropical storm strength, but was still a very large storm.

In the Atlantic, a well organized tropical wave has been producing a large number of thunderstorms to the east of the Lesser Antilles. This system will bring heavy showers and thunderstorms to the Leeward Islands over the next day or so and could develop into a named tropical system in the next couple of days. This system is likely to drift into the Caribbean Sea in the next 2-3 days, so it will have to be monitored, so all islands in the northern Caribbean as well as the coast of South America will need to monitor this storm.

Discussion Links Forecast

Forecast:

Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Wednesday 9/28: Mostly cloudy with perhaps some afternoon sunny breaks, breezy, but not quite as cool. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: NE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Partial clearing, breezy, and cooler. Low: between 42 and 46. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 9/29: Sunny, light winds, and seasonably warm. High: between 64 and 68. Winds: ENE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Clear, light winds, and still cool. Low: between 42 and 46. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday 9/30: Sunny, breezy, and a shade warmer. High: between 67 and 72. Winds: ESE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.


Confidence Level: "A Squirrel Will Squawk At Me" (they really hate me...)

Friday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and not quite as cool. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 10/1: Sunshine through high clouds, light winds, and continued seasonably warm. High: between 67 and 72. Winds: E 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, light winds, and seasoably cool. Low: between 44 and 48. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 10/2: Mixed clouds and sun, light winds, and continued seasonably warm. High: between 67 and 72. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%


Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Extended: An actual sunny weekend??? Highs in the 70's???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Tuesday through Thursday, 6 Thursday night and Friday, 5 Friday night and Saturday, 3 Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 56F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 46F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 3 AM Wednesday): 0.01 inch; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Wednesday): 0.01 inch

Normal Temperatures for September 28 - High: 65F; Low: 41F
Next Update: Thursday, September 29 8:00 AM (or as needed)

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

Discussion Links Forecast

Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

Discussion Links Forecast