Local Forecast


Friday, June 24, 2016 1:45 PM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Storms Possible Friday Night, Likely Saturday Midday and Afternoon

Discussion Links Forecast

Few Scattered Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms Possible Friday

The push of warm, sticky air over the cooler air at the ground has produced a lot of middle level clouds across the Dakotas that have moved into Minnesota during the morning and midday hours (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). This air is already fairly humid with dew points in the upper 50's to lower 60's (see hourly UCAR dew point chart). There are some isolated showers in these clouds (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop). With a stronger push of the warm sticky air developing this evening, a scattered shower or thunderstorm is possible which may disrupt the Liberty Block Party. I give a 1 in 3 chance for seeing a thunderstorm late this afternoon or early this evening.

Stormy Friday Night, Saturday Afternoon With Severe Weather Threat

The main weather-maker for the weekend is the storm system swirling on the British Columbia coast (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). That storm will spend the weekend moving across southern Canada, reaching Saskatchewan by tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of it, there will be a surge of the very humid and warmer air over the Rockies into the Dakotas and Minnesota. This will trigger a round of showers and thunderstorms tonight with a chance of severe weather in northwestern Minnesota. There will be a good chance of showers and thunderstorms from late evening into the early morning hours. Some heavy downpours and perhaps hail are possible.

Tomorrow, the primary thunderstorm threat will be the second half of the day. There will be some leftover storms in the morning and it is possible that these storms could retain their strength through the middle of the day. The Granite City Days parade also has about a 1 in 3 chance for a thunderstorm. The bulk of the afternoon activity will likely develop in the early afternoon in western Minnesota with a threat of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps even a tornado. Those storms will then move across central and eastern Minnesota during the middle and late afternoon. As these storms move through St. Cloud and the Twin Cities, there will be a threat for large hail and straight line damaging winds. Some heavy downpours are possible. And, a tornado cannot be ruled out. So, make sure you keep up to date weather information, especially during the afternoon.

The exact timing and location of the threat won't become clear until tomorrow morning, so I'll have forecast updates then.

Natural Air Conditioning Resumes Sunday Through Middle of Next Week

Conditions will rapidly improve Saturday night, setting us up for seasonably cool and dry weather from Sunday well into next week. The upper-level low pressure system will be cruising by on Monday, so we could have more afternoon clouds and a chance of a sprinkle. However, we will tend to be drier with a good supply of sunshine Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Highs will be a bit cooler as air from south central Canada gets pumped into the Northern Plains. Highs will be generally in the 70's with overnight lows in the 40's. There will be a strong west to northwest wind Sunday and Monday.

Discussion Links Forecast

Forecast:

Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Friday PM 6/24: Mixed clouds and sun with a chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. Warm and more humid. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Friday Night: Partly clear with a chance of a scattered evening shower or thunderstorm. A good chance of a shower or thunderstorm after midnight. Some storms could produce large hail. Warmer and more humid. Low: between 65 and 70. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Saturday 6/25: Mixed clouds and sun and humid with a chance of a scattered morning and midday shower or thunderstorm. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some storms could produce large hail, damaging winds, flooding rains or perhaps a tornado. High: between 78 and 84. Winds: S-SW 10-20 MPH turning to W late in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30% in the morning, 70% in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Clearing, breezy, and drier. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 6/26: Sunny, windy, and warm, but much drier. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: WNW 20-30 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday Night: Clear with diminishing wind, cooler, and drier. Low: between 52 and 56. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "A Squirrel Will Squawk At Me" (they really hate me...)

Monday 6/27: Sunny in the morning, mixed clouds and sun in the afternoon, breezy, and a shade cooler. A slight chance of a shower. High: between 74 and 78. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Monday Night: Clear with diminishing wind and much cooler. Low: between 42 and 46. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday 6/28: Sunny, light winds, and a shade cool for late June. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Extended: Continued seasonably warm and dry with highs in the lower 80's Wednesday. Next storm threat end of next week.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Friday, 7 Friday night and Saturday, 6 Saturday night through Sunday night, 5 Monday through Tuesday, 3 Wednesday.

Today's High (through 1 PM): 75F; Overnight Low (through 7 AM): 53F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 7 AM Friday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 7 AM Friday): None

Normal Temperatures for June 24 - High: 80F; Low: 56F
Next Update: Saturday, June 25, 2016 8:00 AM (or as needed)

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

Discussion Links Forecast

Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

Discussion Links Forecast