Local Forecast


Tuesday, July 28, 2015 7:30 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Things That Go Bump in the Morning

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Line of Storms Producing Heavy Rainfall in Central Minnesota (Updated 7 AM)

The showers and thunderstorms developed as expected across eastern Montana and the western Dakotas late yesterday (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). There were reports of hail up to baseball-sized and wind gusts to 72 MPH in the Black Hills yesterday afternoon. These storms have continued to push eastward, reaching central Minnesota by 3-4 AM. (see Mississippi Valley radar loop).

The main threat has been heavy rainfall, producing near zero visibility and the possibility of localized flooding. As of 7 AM, Glenwood picked up 2.36 inches with more than 2 inches in an hour. Sauk Center had seen 1.38 inches between 4 and 6 AM. SCSU also had 1.38 inches with 1.08 inch at the St. Cloud Airport. There's still lingering rain in central Minnesota, which should come through in the next hour or two.

More Comfortable Tomorrow Late Through End of Work Week

The front is moving a little bit slower than earlier forecast, so I don't expect to see a lot of clearing until the afternoon. That will limit high temperatures to the lower 80's. There will be brisk winds of 10-25 MPH behind the system and eventually those winds will pull in some drier air.

However, the major drying will come tonight with dew points dropping well back into the 50's. Winds may stay strong enough to keep temperatures in the 60's, but it won't feel nearly as humid as the past couple of days. The winds will continue to blow on Wednesday, perhaps even more strongly than today as a strong pressure difference moves from the area of high wind warning in Montana and the western Dakotas eastward. We may see wind gusts over 30 MPH tomorrow. Still, it will more comfortable and seasonably warm with highs in the lower 80's.

Cooler and drier air will build in for the middle of the week. Look for lows in the 50's and highs in the low to middle 80's on Thursday. There will be a weak front coming through late on Thursday, but there won't be much moisture to work with. So, I only have a slight chance of a late day rain shower. There will be another weak weather system going through on Saturday evening, so there may be a chance for more storms then. After this morning, however, the best chance for storms looks like Sunday. However, my outlook for "the best chance for storms" keeps changing from day to day, which means I'm not really confident about it. It appears that the drier air will hang on into the weekend, so there will be no repeat of the oppressive humidity of the past 2 days.

As of 7 AM, the July St. Cloud Airport rainfall is 7.18 inches, now the 7th wettest July in St. Cloud records and the wettest since 1986. The May-July rainfall is 17.87 inches, 7.44 inches above average and the 4th wettest May-July total on record. The last late spring and early summer that was wetter was in 1990 (19.41 inches), which featured 10.56 inches in June, the third wettest month in St. Cloud records. This July is also St. Cloud's wettest month since August 1995 (7.35 inches).

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Forecast:

Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Tuesday 7/28: Showers and thunderstorms likely through 9 AM. Heavy downpours and localized flooding are possible. Mixed clouds and sun in the afternoon, still very warm, and slowly turning less humid. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH, becoming W late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 80% in the morning, 20% in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, breezy, cooler, and less humid. Low: between 60 and 65. Winds: W 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday 7/29: Becoming sunny, windy, seasonably warm, and much drier. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: NW 15-30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "The Twins Will Finish Above .500"

Wednesday Night: Clear, still breezy, and seasonably mild. Low: between 57 and 62. Winds: W 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 7/30: Sunny to partly cloudy, breezy, warm, and continued comfortable humidity. A slight chance of a late day shower. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: WNW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear and continued seasonably mild. A slight chance of an evening shower. Low: between 57 and 63. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH, becoming NW 5-15 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Friday 7/31: Sunny and continued warm and dry. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Mostly clear and continued seasonably mild. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 8/1: Partly sunny with a slight chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.


Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Extended: Chance of storms Sunday. Seasonably warm.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Monday, 7 Monday night and Tuesday, 6 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 5 Wednesday night and Thursday, 4 Thursday night and Friday, 2 Saturday.

Yesterday's High: 88F; Overnight Low (through 7 AM): 71F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 7 AM Tuesday): 1.08 inch; SCSU Precipitation (Through 7 AM Tuesday): 1.38 inch

Normal Temperatures for July 28 - High: 82F; Low: 58F
Next Update: Wednesday, July 29, 2015 8:00 AM (or as needed)

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

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Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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