Local Forecast


Friday, February 27, 2015 4:13 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Slow Climb Out of Temperature Hole

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Slow Recovery, But Still Colder Than Average Weekend

We will begin to climb out of this particular cold hole today, despite the cold start. High temperatures will climb back into the teens, a good 5-8 degrees warmer than yesterday, but still 15-20 degrees colder than the average end of February high, which should be near freezing. Our air flow will still be coming from the northwest, but as this block of cold air shoves off into eastern Canada, temperatures will moderate a bit over the weekend. We should see highs in the 20's Saturday through Monday with lows in the plus single digits to near 10.

We may see a chance of a few flurries on Saturday night, but that's our only threat of snowfall through Monday.

It looks very much like St. Cloud will finish February with about half the average snowfall, since I only see a slight chance of a flurry on Saturday night into early Sunday. The long range forecasts still show a potential storm Monday night into Tuesday, so that would be our only chance for accumulating snow over the next week. It doesn't look like much right now. Behind that Tuesday system, there will be another reinforcing shot of cold air. We'll get falling temperatures Tuesday afternoon with highs back in the lower teens on Wednesday.

February to End Up Brown and Cold

So, St. Cloud will likely finish February with only 4.0 inches, a little more than half of the average 7.1 inches. For the season so far, St. Cloud has only seen 26.6 inches of snow, seven short of the seasonal average through February 26: 33.6 inches. Last year at this time, St. Cloud had more than double this amount of snow (54.3 inches) on its way to the second straight cold season with a top 5 snowfall total. As of early this morning, southern Arkansas and northern Mississippi have more snow on the ground than in central Minnesota or eastern North Dakota.

Temperature-wise, this consistently cold February has produced an average St. Cloud temperature of 8.9 degrees, 7.8 degrees colder than average. That's still about three and a half degrees milder than last February, the 9th coldest in St. Cloud records. This morning marks the 17th February day with a low of zero or colder. The average for February is 12 days. Through this morning, St. Cloud has had 35 days with a low of zero or colder. That's close to the 2012-2013 total, but well short of the 60 days recorded through February last winter. Last winter's 63 total days with a low of zero or colder were the 8th most in St. Cloud records.

See Forecast Below

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Forecast:

Friday 2/27: Sunny, a bit of a breeze, and not quite as cold. High: between 14 and 18. Winds: W-SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Partly clear and not quite as cold. Low: between -5 and 0. Winds: SW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 2/28: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, and a shade less cold. High: between 18 and 23. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and not quite as cold. Myabe some spotty fog. Low: near 10. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH evening, NW 5 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 3/1: Partly sunny, breezy, and continued less ridiculously cold. High: between 23 and 27. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.


End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Sunday Night: Partly clear, light wind, and continued cold. Low: between 0 and 5. Winds: SW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 3/2: Morning sunshine, afternoon clouds, breezy, and continued cold. High: between 24 and 28. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Cloudy with a chance of light snow or flurries and mild. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Tuesday 3/3: Cloudy with a chance of a morning flurry, then turning windy and colder. High: between 25 and 30 in the morning, falling into the teens during the afternoon. Winds: becoming NW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Extended: Windy and colder Wednesday. Lows below zero. Highs in the teens.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Thursday through Sunday, 6 Sunday night and Monday, 5 Monday night and Tuesday, 4 Wednesday, 3 Thursday and Friday.

Yesterday's High: 8F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM): -6F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation: None; SCSU Precipitation (Through 3 AM Friday): None

Normal Temperatures for February 27 - High: 31F; Low: 12F
Next Update: Monday, March 2, 2015 8:00 AM (or as needed)

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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