Friday, April 18, 2014 3:41 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast
Spring: The Sequel Begins Tomorrow Afternoon
It's a chilly start to the morning with temperatures in the lower 20's and a few upper teens on the UCAR
Minnesota surface chart loop. We still have that patch of middle and high clouds to our west (see infrared loop from College
of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), the sign of much warmer air coming over the cold air near the ground. The leading edge of that warmer air will push through tonight into tomorrow morning, so we'll have more clouds tonight. Temperatures will get to the upper 40's today, then stay above freezing all night. We will have a chance of rain showers or perhaps a thunderstorm late tonight into tomorrow morning.
Then, we will break out into the warmer air mass tomorrow afternoon. There will be another cold front coming through Monday morning and the chance of a stronger storm late Wednesday into Thursday. However, rather than being colder than average, temperatures will climb into the 60's to near 70 tomorrow afternoon, and hover around 70 Sunday and Monday. There's a small chance of showers and thunderstorms with the cold front late Sunday night, then highs will stay closer to 60 on Tuesday. However, the next warm surge will push highs back into the middle 60's. on Wednesday. How warm we get on Thursday depends on the timing of a cold front and how cloudy it will be.
We could see substantial rainfall the second half of next week with some cooler conditions, but between tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday, we will see that well-earned warm-up.
The warm front will be past us for Sunday and Monday, so look for spring to finally resume Sunday with the warmth continuing through much of next week. On Sunday, high temperatures will climb to the upper 60's to lower 70's with 70's likely on Monday. Slightly cooler air will move on Tuesday with highs in the upper 60's. However, another warm front is slated to push through late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. I'm getting bold by forecasting that far in advance, but it looks like more 70's on Wednesday.
"Career" Snow Season Achievement Awards Keep Climbing
The actual April snowfall total is now 12.0 inches, which ranks as the 4th snowiest April on record. The total seasonal snowfall in St. Cloud has jumped to 75.5 inches, tying 1916-1917 for 5th place and only 3 inches short of last cold season's ridiculous 78.5 inches. And, the February-April snowfall is 32.7 inches, ranking as the 10th most on record.
Wednesday was be St. Cloud's 48th day with measurable snowfall, one behind the 49 days in both 1993-1994 and 2012-2013. And, this morning will be St. Cloud's 129th day of the snow season with at least an inch on the ground. If we hold on to the snow through Saturday, it would only be the 17th time there have been at least 130 days with an inch of snow on the ground during the cold season.
See Forecast Below
Ground and Air Travel
Friday 4/18: Sunshine through thickening high clouds, breezy, and not quite as cold. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: becoming SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.
Friday Night: Cloudy with a chance of late night rain showers. Breezy, and not as cold. Low: between 34 and 38. Winds: SE 10-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20% evening, 50% after midnight.
Saturday 4/19: Cloudy with a good chance of morning rain showers (or perhaps a thunderstorm). Becoming partly sunny by middle to late afternoon. Turning more April-like. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: SE 10-15 MPH in the morning, becoming SW 10-15 MPH in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50% in the morning, 20% in the afternoon.
Saturday Night: Clearing, but still mild. A chance of some fog by morning. Low: between 40 and 45. Winds: light W. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Sunday 4/20: Sunny and much warmer. High: between 68 and 73. Winds: light. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a late night shower and still mild. Low: between 42 and 46. Winds: light. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.
End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty
Monday 4/21: A slight chance of an early shower, then sunny, windy, and warm again. High: between 68 and 73. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.
Monday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and cooler. Low: between 32 and 36. Winds: N 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Tuesday 4/22: Sunny to partly cloudy and cooler. High: between 58 and 63. Winds: N 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.
Tuesday Night: Partly clear and cool. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: E 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Wednesday 4/23: Partly sunny with a chance of late day showers and thunderstorms. Milder and breezy. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.
Wednesday Night: Better chance of showers and thunderstorms and milder. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.
Thursday 4/24: Chance of showers and thunderstorms. High: in the upper 50's to middle 60's. Winds: E-NE 10-20 MPH Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.
Extended: Cooling off late next week.
Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will
cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Friday, 6 Friday night through Sunday night, 5 Monday through Tuesday, 3 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 2 Wednesday night and Thursday.
Yesterday's High: 44°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 22°F
St. Cloud Prison Storm Total Precipitation (through 4 AM): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 4 AM): None
Normal Temperatures for April 18 - High: 58°F;
Next Update: Monday, April 21, 2014 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU
meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!
Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so,
go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.