Local Forecast

Friday, October 28, 2016 3:15 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast


Cool or Warm, Hard to Get Rid of Clouds

Once again, central Minnesota hit a chilly, but brief bottom the past two days with temperatures only making it to near 50 yesterday afternoon (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations). The pesky clouds however have kept low temperatures from dropping out of the 40's. In fact, this morning, temperatures haven't been able to drop much below 45 degrees (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart). Higher clouds have pushed through the Dakotas into Minnesota since the middle of yesterday. Those clouds are associated with a major warm-up as early morning temperatures are into the 50's with even some near 60 degree readings across South Dakota and Nebraska (see UCAR Dakotas surface chart).

The main limit on how warm we can get today will be those low clouds over Minnesota. For that reason, I'm going to keep temperatures in the lower half of the 60's. If the low clouds remain solid all day, we may only see high temperatures in the 50's.

The cold front will pass through this evening with a small chance of rain showers. Temperatures will stay in the upper 40's overnight. Tomorrow will be a cooler day with a lot of clouds. A stray shower or two could be possible. Temperatures will be back to 50 or maybe a shade higher.

At this stage, it is difficult to find a day that we will be free of low clouds. There is hope, since the computers have trouble figuring out where the low clouds are in such a pattern of rapidly changing air masses. I'm slightly more optimistic about Sunday than I am about Saturday. Some breaks in the clouds late Saturday night will mean lows in the upper 30's, then if we can get some sun on Sunday, the lower 50's high will feel more comfortable than tomorrow.

The next surge of warmer air will push into Minnesota Sunday night. There will be more clouds, a slight chance of a rain shower, and a south wind, so temperatures will likely stay in the 40's all night. If we get some sunshine on Monday, highs could again climb into the 60's. A weak cold front will come through Monday night, but this one may have a decent amount of moisture available so we will have a better chance of seeing a few scattered rain showers.

The fast moving weather pattern will continue into next week, but it now appears that the main belt of steering winds will stay north of the Canadian border, so we have a chance of temperatures remaining near to above average for a good chunk of next week.

Because the low temperatures have remained well above the average lower 30's even when we have chilly high temperatures, the average October 2016 temperature in St. Cloud has continued to be around two and a half degrees warmer than normal. This gives us an increased chance of having 2016 rank as one of the 15 warmest years in St. Cloud.

Seymour Won't Produce Little Shop of Horrors in Pacific

The expected weakening of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seymour has taken place. The storm is now a tropical storm with top winds of 40 MPH and further weakening is expected today into tomorrow.

The West Coast continues to get heavy rainfall from a series of storms moving onshore. These have been focusing on central California, an area that badly needs the rain (see US Drought Monitor). Unfortunately, these areas are also seeing a flood risk since fires took out a lot of the vegetation, so there isn't much holding the soil in place for any kind of significant rainfall.

And, no, we weren't the first part of the lower 48 states to experience a decent snowstorm. Eastern New York and northern New England had snow from the same storm that produced our Tuesday night rainfall.

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Confidence Level: "The Next 2 Weeks Will Seem Like Three Months"

Friday 10/28: Mixed sun and clouds, breezy, and warmer. A slight chance of a late day shower. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with perhaps an evening shower, breezy, and still mild. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: N 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Saturday 10/29: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower, breezy, and cooler. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: N 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%

Confidence Level: "There Will Be Life After This Election"

Saturday Night: Cloudy with perhaps some clearing late and colder. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 10/30: Sunny to partly cloudy, light winds, and seasonably cool. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Sunday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and not as cold. Maybe a rain shower late. Low: between 40 and 45. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Monday 10/31: Mixed sun and clouds and warmer. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: S 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Confidence Level: "There Will Be Intelligent Life After This Election"

Monday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and milder. A better chance of a rain shower. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Tuesday 11/1: Partly sunny and warmer. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Extended: Mild weather continues for much of next week.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Friday, 6 Friday night and Saturday, 5 Saturday night and Sunday, 4 Sunday night and Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 50F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 45F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): None

Normal Temperatures for October 28 - High: 51F; Low: 31F
Next Update: Monday, October 31 8:00 AM

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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