Local Forecast


Tuesday, July 29, 2014 3:12 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Weather Winning Streak to Continue

Despite a lot of afternoon clouds (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). and a few widely scattered showers in eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin, seasonable temperatures continued across Minnesota (see Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany). We haven't had the low clouds overnight, so temperatures have dropped back into the 50's overnight (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop).

The generally dry and sunny weather will continue through the rest of the week. We will continue to have quite a few afternoon instability clouds and a few widely scattered showers from eastern Minnesota to Wisconsin both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, thanks to the general trough in the middle layers of the atmosphere (see winds shift from northwest-to-southeast in central Canada to southwest-to-northeast in eastern Canada on the water vapor loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). It won't be quite as breezy as yesterday with highs around 80 today and climbing into the middle 80's tomorrow. We will see middle to upper 80's and possibly near 90 degrees Thursday through Saturday. Lows will be in the 50's.

There could be an increased chance of a few isolated showers on Friday and Saturday as hotter air, now creeping northward into Washington and British Columbia again (see Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany), tries to push into the Dakotas. However, I don't see a really good chance of storms until Saturday night or perhaps Sunday night. Since that's 6 days down the road, I wouldn't trust this quite yet.

Where are the big storms? From the Rockies into Oklahoma and Texas (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). Heavy rain from these storms has led to flood advisories and warnings in northern Nevada and parts of Colorado and New Mexico. That's where the rain will remain for much of this week.

I'll also be working on the July St. Cloud weather summary. July will likely end up with slightly below average temperatures and much below average rainfall (for a change), close to the current 1.25 inch. That's less than the average for March, but close to what we saw last July.

See Forecast Below

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

Discussion Links Forecast

Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Forecast:

Tuesday 7/29: Sunny through the morning, mixed clouds and sun in the afternoon with a chance of a brief shower or thunderstorm. High: between 78 and 82. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Tuesday Night: Any showers end by dark, then clearing and seasonably cool. Low: between 52 and 56. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday 7/30: Sunny through the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon with a slight chance of a late day shower. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: WNW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Wednesday Night: Clearing with light winds and continued seasonably cool. Low: between 52 and 56. Winds: NW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 7/31: Sunny with a few afternoon clouds, breezy, dry, and very warm. High: between 85 and 90. Winds: W 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Partly clear and a shade milder. Low: between 57 and 62. Winds: N 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday 8/1: Sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon with a slight chance of a late shower and continued very warm. High: between 85 and 90. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.


End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Friday Night: Partly clear and relatively mild. Low: between 57 and 62. Winds: N 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 8/2: Sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon, hot, with a chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 87 and 92. Winds: WNW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Extended: Chance of overnight showers and thunderstorms Saturday night?? Lows in the 60's. Still very warm on Sunday. Highs near 90. Better chance of storms Sunday night???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 9 Tuesday through Wednesday, 8 Wednesday night through Thursday, 6 Thursday night and Friday, 5 Friday night and Saturday, 3 Saturday night and Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 79°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 59F
St. Cloud Airport Rainfall (Since 7 AM Monday): None; SCSU Rainfall (Since 7 AM Monday): None

Normal Temperatures for July 29 - High: 82F; Low: 58F
Next Update: Wednesday, July 30, 2014 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

Discussion Links Forecast