Friday, November 22, 2024  2:20 AM

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Thanks-chilling Week Ahead?

Dry Trend Eased This Week, But Warn Trend Continued in a Different Flavor...

While the heavy rain and bit of snow earlier in the week reversed our November trend to above average precipitation (also see central Minnesota improvement in US Drought Monitor), the trend of warmer than average temperatures has continued through November. Only November 1 has been colder than average during the first 20 days of the month. The way we are above average has changed. The graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest notes the loss of 60-degree and 70-degree highs from October to November, but within November, we had highs in the 40's and 50's at the start of the month to 30's of late, but the lows have remained in the 30's to upper 20's during the past week. So, St. Cloud's average temperature through November 20 was 41.5 degrees, 8.0 degrees above average.

...But December-Like (and Possibly January-Like) Temperatures Likely Much of Next Week

I am not going to bother to mention how warm that temperature would be if it held up through the end of the month (OK, I lied. It ranks as the 2nd warmest November so far). That's because we are going to see a major weather pattern change next week. Some early season cold air has built up in northern Alaska (afternoon temperatures in the teens and single digits) and over Nunavut and the Northwest Territories (some afternoon temperatures in the single digits both above and below zero; see 3 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). Beginning over the weekend, that air will be steered into south central Canada with a wave of colder than average temperatures moving into Minnesota on Sunday night and likely continuing through next week. Highs will likely be knocked down to no better than 30 degrees or a bit above early next week. And, a second wave of even colder air will be in southern Canada by mid-week, so we could be even colder from Thanksgiving Day through the weekend (highs in the 20's at best). The exact timing of each cold air mass is a bit uncertain as the computer forecasts cannot agree on the progress of any low and cold front from the end of the weekend through next week, so forecast temperatures could be easily off by 10 degrees, but nothing in the forecast pattern indicates warmer than average or even average temperatures from Monday on.

The cold air would also be dry. There are chances of some patchy light snow for any given low and cold front, but the disagreement among computer forecasts still keep any threat small and uncertain. There may be a chance of some light snow, mainly in northern Minnesota Sunday night and Monday with the initial surge of cold air (see some patchy accumulations of at least 1 inch near the Canadian border on the 00 UTC Monday, 6 PM CST Sunday, tab of the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance) and more uncertain chances when the second wave of cold air comes in (some computer forecasts have a potential snowstorm to our south; see small chance for plowable snow on the Days 6-7 forecast on the NWS WPC winter weather outlook), but the overall verdict right now is: ????

Continued A Bit Warmer Than Seasonable Through Sunday

For today through the weekend, the main question is how much sun we can get. Sunshine really ran the snow cover down yesterday, but there are some low clouds again early this morning (see GeoColor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). The amount of sunny periods each day through the weekend is uncertain. Fewer clouds today should allow highs to top 40 degrees once again today, but more clouds around tomorrow and Sunday will likely keep highs in the upper 30's to near 40. On the other hand, the worst of the winds have passed. The second storm in the series moved into the Mid-Atlantic region (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), so the pressure difference across Minnesota has weakened overnight (only 2 isobars in Minnesota, red lines on the latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map, compared to 4 yesterday afternoon). Today and Saturday will have much lighter winds. If we had clear skies overnight, temperatures could drop into the plus teens, but I have at least some clouds hanging around each night, so I have lows still in the 20's both tonight and tomorrow night.

...Then Colder Than Average Beginning Monday

As the first wave of colder air approaches, look for more wind on Sunday and continuing in the colder air on Monday into the first half of Monday night. Temperatures will remain in the upper 20's to lower 30's at worst Sunday night, but likely fall from those lower 30's back into the 20's during Monday's daylight hours. Temperatures will fall back into the teens Monday night with wind chills in the plus single digits and perhaps approaching zero.

The modestly cold air will continue Tuesday and probably Wednesday. The second wave of cold air could be here for Thanksgiving or Friday, but likely last through the weekend.

Winter Weather Hazards Preparation Help

Minnesota's and Wisconsin's Winter Hazards Awareness Week is this week (November 18-22). You can check out the detailed links already up on the NWS Sioux Falls winter preparedness page and a summary of the winter alert topics on the NWS Twin Cities Winter Hazards Awareness page. The NWS Duluth page also has some special materials for this week.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 11/22/2024: Partly sunny, finally light winds, and a bit milder than average. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill: in the 20's during the morning, in the 30's during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Friday Night: Partly clear evening, cloudy late, light winds, and chilly. A slight chance of a snow flurry late. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: SW 5 MPH evening, NW 5-10 MPH late. Wind chill: between 13 and 25. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 11/23/2024: Partly to mostly cloudy, light winds, and a shade cooler. A slight chance of a few snow flurries. High: between 37 and 42. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH, becoming NE in the afternoon. Wind chill: in the 20's during the morning, in the 30's during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a snow flurry. Light winds, and continued cold. Low: between 28 and 33. Winds: E 5-10 MPH evening, 10-20 MPH after midnight. Wind chill: between 17 and 27. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 11/24/2024: Cloudy, breezy, and a bit colder. Perhaps some flurries or spotty drizzle. High: between 38 and 43. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH in the morning, E 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: in the 20's during the morning, between 27 and 35 in the afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a snow flurry or light snow. Low: between 27 and 32. Winds: light evening, becoming NW 8-15 MPH late. Wind chill: in the teens. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Monday 11/25/2024: Mostly cloudy, windy, and colder. Perhaps some flurries or light snow. Temperatures falling from the lower 30's in the morning to the 20's by afternoon. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH. Wind chill: between 10 and 25. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Monday Night: Partial clearing, breezy, and colder with biting wind chills. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH evening, 8-15 MPH after midnight. Wind chill: between 0 and 15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 11/26/2024: Mixed clouds and sun with a chance for a snow flurry, and colder. High: between 27 and 32. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill: between 13 and 25. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Extended: Colder than average most of next week (highs in the 20's at best) with a colder dip Thanksgiving on?? Uncertain chances for light snow or flurries next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Friday through Sunday, 3 Sunday night and Monday, 4 Monday night and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 40°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Friday): 31°F; Top 24-Hour Wind Gust (through 2 AM Friday): 35 MPH, set at 10:48 and 10:59 AM;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None

Next Update: Monday, November 25, 2024 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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