Wednesday, January 22, 2025 3:05 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

The Temperatures Other Areas Are Complaining About Will Feel So Good in Minnesota!

40 Degree Rebound From Yesterday Morning!

We made it! St. Cloud dropped to -27 yesterday morning, the coldest temperature since Jan. 7, 2022, with some -40 wind chills (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations). Kabetogama again dropped below -40 (-41; on the NWS Duluth climate page, set tab to observed weather, product to routine temperature and precipitation summary, location to Northeast Minnesota, and version to the 10:35 AM Tuesday update) and wind chills to our north got as cold as -50 yesterday morning (see Tuesday early morning versions on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). But, temperatures rose quickly after that (see 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest), reaching zero by 5 PM and climbing into the teens Tuesday evening. Early morning temperatures in the middle teens (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), between 30 and 45 degrees milder than they were at this time yesterday.

The persistent south wind has helped, but also there have been low and middle clouds (see GeoColor satellite loop from Colorado State satellite slider) from a low pressure system in Montana and the Dakotas (see mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). That system is pumping the milder air (highs in the 20's and lower 30's from Alberta to the western Dakotas on yesterday's 3 PM CST NWS WPC North America surface map) over the leftover arctic air. However, both air masses are quite dry, so there have been very few reports of snow reaching the ground in central Minnesota (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), despite radar echoes pushing through last evening (set number of frames to 96 on the College of DuPage continental US radar loop).

Alternating Between Average Cold (Highs in the 20's) and Slightly Colder Than Average (Highs in the teens, but near 10 tomorrow)

During the rest of the week and into the weekend, the northwest-to-southeast flow pattern will continue (see mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). That means a series of low pressure systems will move from south of Alaska (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) into northwestern Canada, and then towards the Midwest. So, we will see frequent swings from colder to warmer conditions. The big change is that the atmosphere has now shoved the coldest air from the Arctic Circle into eastern Canada (see blue on the Clean infrared satellite loop from Colorado State satellite slider) with only a little left near the west shore of Hudson Bay (see yesterday's 3 PM CST NWS WPC North America surface map), so we will be alternating between average and slightly colder than average temperatures.

Today will likely be the mildest day of the next several days with highs in the 20's. Slightly colder air will move in tonight, so lows will drop to the minus single digits and tomorrow's high will only get to about 10 degrees. Look for highs in the upper teens to near 20 highs from Friday over the weekend with lows in the plus single digits and only a small chance to drop below zero. Even milder weather will be possible next week.

Maybe Friday Flurries

This flow from northwestern Canada will continue to be dry. There might be a few flurries Friday afternoon into Friday evening, but that will about do it for potential snowfall.

More Snow This Month in Houston and Atlanta Than St. Cloud

In the Southeast, the winter storm is winding down over the Carolina coast with still freezing rain (sideways 'S") and snow (asterisks when you pull the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map to the southeast). and in northern Florida both today and tomorrow (set tab to both 00 UTC Wed and 00 UTC Thurs). The trail of snow in areas that rarely see it extended from Houston (3-5 inches) to Lafayette, LA (4-11 inches) to New Orleans (2-4 inches) to Mobile, AL (5-8 inches) to Pensacola, FL (5-8 inches) and Dothan, AL (5-8 inches). There were also reports of accumulating freezing rain (mouse over the southern purple dots) to the south of the snow reports.

And, where the snow has ended, early morning temperatures are hovering in the teens to the upper single digits (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), 10-25 degrees colder than yesterday, and 15-25 degrees colder than average

What St. Cloud Has Seen So Far (see 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest; NWS: last 72-hours of St. Cloud observations)

• 2 complete days with temperatures colder than zero
  • 68 straight hours: 5 PM Saturday through 1 PM Tuesday
  • Longest period since Jan. 14-15, 2024
  • Average sub-zero days in a cold season: 4.3
• 2 days with a low temperatures of -20 or colder
  • Last low of -20 or colder: Jan. 26, 2022
  • Average -20 lows in a cold season: 5.4
  • -27 degrees on Tuesday: coldest since Jan. 7, 2022
• 13 January days with a low of zero or colder
  • 18 days for this cold season so far
  • Average 0 or colder lows for a cold season: 42.7

But What We Won't See

• Consecutive Complete Days Zero or Colder
  • Three: Dec. 21-23, 2022
  • Five (and 8 Days out of 10): Feb. 11-15, 2021
• Last high of -10 or colder: Jan. 6, 2014 (only 3 days since 1995)
• Last low of -30 or colder: Jan. 30 and 31, 2019
• Last lows of -40: Jan. 19 (MLK Jr Day), 1994; Feb. 2, 1996 (reached through NWS Twin Cities NOW Data; set to summarized data for a month)
• Any daily record cold temperatures: -9 Monday was short of the -14 record

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Wednesday 1/22/2025: Mostly cloudy with perhaps a morning flurry. Partly cloudy and breezy in the afternoon. Much milder. High: between 23 and 28. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH during the morning, NW 10-20 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear, breezy during the evening, and fairly cold, but not nearly as cold as earlier in the week. Low: between -7 and -2. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH evening, 5-10 MPH in the early morning hours. Wind chill: between -15 and -5 during the evening, between -20 and -10 after midnight. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday 1/23/2025: Some morning high clouds, but mostly sunny, and a bit colder, but not nearly as cold as early in the week. High: between 7 and 12. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -15 and +5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear with diminishing wind and a bit colder by midnight, then some increasing high clouds with a bit of a breeze with rising early morning temperatures, but biting wind chills. Low: between -10 and -4 by midnight, rising above zero in the early morning hours. Winds: light evening, SW 5-10 MPH late at night. Wind chill: between -22 and -10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday 1/24/2025: Sunshine through thickening high clouds in the morning, cloudy with perhaps a flurry in the afternoon. Milder. High: between 18 and 23. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -20 and 0 during the morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Friday Night: Cloudy with a few early evening flurries. Partial clearing late at night, breezy, and milder. Low: between +5 and +12. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH evening, NW 5-15 MPH late at night. Wind chill: between -15 and 0. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Saturday 1/25/2025: Sunshine through high clouds, windy, and still a little colder than average. High: between 15 and 20. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill: between -5 and +10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Saturday Night: Cloudy with a few evening flurries, partial clearing late at night, breezy, and milder. Low: between +5 and +10. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH evening, NW 5-15 MPH late at night. Wind chill: between -15 and 0. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Sunday 1/26/2025: Sunshine through high clouds and still a little colder than average. High: between 15 and 20. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill: between -5 and +10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Extended: Average to above average temperatures early next week??? Any chance for snow will be small???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Wednesday through Thursday night, 6 Friday through Saturday, 4 Saturday night and Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 13°F (set at midnight Tuesday night); Yesterday's Daytime High: 6°F; Today's High So Far (through 3 AM): 16°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Wednesday): 6°F; Top Wind Gust (through 3 AM Wednesday): 32 MPH at 3:30 PM Tuesday
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 3 AM Wednesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Wednesday): None; St. Cloud Airport Coldest Wind Chill (through 3 AM Wednesday): -40°F at 6 AM Tuesday

Next Update: Thursday, January 23, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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