Thursday, June 27, 2024  6:00 AM Updated for rain amounts

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Back to Unsettled Friday, But Best Chance for Today's Rain Ending By Mid-Morning(?)

The first wave of precipitation was a series of light showers and thunderstorms that brought a lot of clouds to central Minnesota from midday on (see Shortwave Albedo loop from Colorado State satellite slider). However, the bulk of the showers remained in southern Minnesota (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). By last evening, a few of the storms managed to push into central Minnesota.

However, the strongest showers and thunderstorms developed overnight, with the first wave in the eastern Dakotas and the second wave starting in Montana with more storms firing up as they crossed the western Dakotas. Those storms are moving through central Minnesota right now and have more heavy rainfall than the earlier storms. These storms will continue through sunrise into parts of the morning rush hour.

We will have a break in the storms from mid-morning well into the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms should fire up again during the middle and late afternoon as the cold front from this storm pushes into western and central Minnesota. However, the bulk of the storms will tend to redevelop over south central and southeastern Minnesota. That's where the best chance for severe weather will be, as well as the most significant rainfall after 7 AM this morning (see Day 1 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). In central Minnesota, the chance for storms refiring will be rather small, but we might see a few light showers late this afternoon or early this evening.

The upper air low will be pushing through the northern half of Minnesota tomorrow morning. The cold air pocket aloft will keep a lot of clouds around and the chance of some occasional light rain showers from morning through midday. We will see more sunshine mixed in during the afternoon with fewer clouds around. It will be rather windy with some wind gusts above 30 MPH. Drier and cooler air will have moved in, so highs will struggle to make it to 70.

Sunday will be our token sunny and dry day. After early morning lows possibly in the upper 40's and some areas of fog, afternoon temperatures will climb back to around 70.

The next even stronger weather system will push into the Dakotas by Monday. This will resume the heat and humidity pump over the top of the leftover dry air. At first, low level moisture may be lacking, so there will only be scattered light showers in the morning. More showers and thunderstorms will fire up during the afternoon and especially on Monday night as the winds pumping the humid air get much stronger. The odds favor significant rainfall in much of the area right now (see Days 4-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), but the specific areas with the heaviest rainfall won't be pinned down this early.

After what appears to be a major rainfall peak Monday night, Minnesota will remain near the main storm track, so there will be frequent, but uncertain chances for rain. It also appears that storms will be tracking to our south, so we will tend to see average to colder than average temperatures, with the coolest conditions during any all day rain.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 6/28/2024: Showers and thunderstorms lingering through the morning rush hour. Then, lots of clouds morning through midday with perhaps some afternoon sunny periods. Uncomfortable to oppressive humidity. Chance for a scattered late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: S 10-20 MPH in the morning, SW 10-20 MPH midday, then W-NW 10-20 MPH middle and late afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 70% until 8 AM, 20% 8 AM-3 PM, 40% after 3 PM.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Friday Night: Perhaps a chance for evening showers and thunderstorms. Then, clearing, breezy, cooler, and drier during the middle of the night. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm towards morning. Low: between 58 and 63. Winds: W 5-15 MPH in the evening, becoming NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts in the early morning hours. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30% evening, 40% in the early morning hours. .

Saturday 6/29/2024: Lots of clouds with a few scattered light showers and thunderstorms during the morning and midday. Maybe some late afternoon sun. Blustery, cooler, and less humid. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50% in the morning, 20% in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Clearing with diminishing wind and much cooler. Areas of fog possible by morning. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH, becoming light late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 6/30/2024: Some early fog, then becoming sunny, lighter winds, and continued cool. High: between 68 and 73. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Sunday Night: Clear with light wind early and cool again. Becoming partly cloudy after midnight, breezy, and noticeably humid. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm towards morning. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH evening, SE 10-20 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Monday 7/1/2024: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and becoming more humid. A chance of a scattered morning shower or thunderstorm. A better chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather may be possible. Windy and more humid. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30% in the morning, 50% in the afternoon.

Monday Night: A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and severe weather may be possible. Low: between 58 and 63. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Tuesday 7/2/2024: Mostly cloudy and uncomfortably humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly early in the morning and late in the afternoon. High: between 73 and 78. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Extended: Frequent rain chances and relatively cool through the middle of next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 6 Friday, 4 Friday night, 6 Saturday, 5 Saturday night and Sunday, 3 Sunday night through Monday night, 2 Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 72°F; Overnight Low (through 6 AM Friday): 67°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 4 AM Friday): 0.29 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 6 AM Friday): 0.56 inch

Next Update: Monday, July 1, 2024 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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