St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 2:40 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus
Forecast Curve Balls on Record Temperature Today, Precipitation Wednesday Night-Thursday
Records Fall Monday
Yesterday afternoon, St. Cloud broke both its daily record warm high (77 degrees, beating 73 set in 1912) and its daily record warm average (63 degrees, breaking 60 set in 1974). Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport tied its record high of 75 degrees. Hutchinson had the warmest high temperature (78 degrees) with many other stations reporting 77 degrees. That's because we were in the warm sector (between the warm front, red half circles, and the cold front, blue triangles on the 4 PM Monday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) of a general trough with two lows, one in the Southwest US and the other in northern Manitoba (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). We are in the sector dominated by south to southwest winds, which gusted as high as 33 MPH yesterday afternoon at 3:06 PM (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations).
Potential Record Warm Low Overnight
We have remained in the warm sector overnight (see area of south winds on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR menu) with the high and middle clouds we had much of yesterday continuing (see Shortwave Albedo loop from Colorado State satellite slider), so temperatures have remained in the 50's in southwestern Minnesota and 60's from St. Cloud south and east (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR menu). These temperatures would be warm enough to beat the October 29 record warm low (52 degrees, set in 1974) if cooler air from the north doesn't move in.
The dew points in the warm sector have climbed into the noticeable 50's (see greens and yellows on the UCAR hourly dew point chart), but there have only been a few patchy radar echoes in Minnesota, none of which have produced rain at the ground so far. The better organized rain is developing well back into the cold air (drag NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR menu map westward) in Montana and Wyoming into the western Dakotas (set number of frames to 96 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop) and some of that is reaching the ground.
In Cooler Air for Part of Today, So Record Warm High Uncertain
On the other hand, that cold front has edged into central Minnesota, since temperatures from Wadena northward are only in the 40's. That front is going to remain nearby today, so I have opened up the possible range of temperature. Highs would be in the 60's if we stayed on the cool side of the front all day, but I am going to forecast a northward push this afternoon, so we might break 70 once again. The October 29 record warm high is 74 degrees, set in 1937 and 1950, but that would require the front returning to our north for most of the day.
Rain Threat (Good Chance, But Not a Lot) Tonight into Tomorrow Morning
The main trough from the West Coast will push into Minnesota by Wednesday, setting us up for a good chance for rain. One strong low will go by just to the south of St. Cloud tomorrow morning. On the cold side of that system, there will be a good chance for rain showers with even a small chance of a thunderstorm, but the bulk of this precipitation will remain in northern Minnesota (see Day 1 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). So, I expect a good chance for rain tonight into tomorrow morning, but not that much falling in St. Cloud.
The precipitation will break up as it pushes through central Minnesota during the morning and midday, so I don't expect a lot of showers around.
You're Not Going to Use That Word Again, Bob! (SNOW!!)
The curve ball in the latest forecast is that a second storm system, associated with the Southern Rockies low itself, will work together with a low in British Columbia (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), allowing a second strong low to develop in Iowa Wednesday evening. That low will push into Wisconsin by Thursday morning. This system is now forecast to be stronger than the first system. It was always going to have a better chance to spread significant rainfall along the track of the low and into the warm sector, but a stronger low would mean that more of the precipitation could get pulled back onto the cold side of the system. The computer forecasts can't agree about how strong the system is, so there are large ranges between the amount of potential precipitation. So, there are now quarter and half inch precipitation contours plotted in Wisconsin, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and even central Minnesota (see Days 2-3 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), which reflects some kind of average. However, an average can be very misleading. Oh, no, I feel a flashback coming...
<professor relapse example of average> Say, I have 4 students who take a test. They score 100, 70, 30, and 20. The average score for those people is about 54 percent, but no one had anything close to that score. It looks like the bulk of the class nearly flunked the exam from the average, just above 50 percent, but two students did fairly well. </professor relapse example of average>
My point is that these precipitation amounts in the forecast are not nearly guaranteed, since some of the forecasts produce nearly nothing in central Minnesota. I'm just keeping a chance of light rain or snow showers for late Wednesday night and early Thursday with little or no accumulation expected.
Our weather dries out the second half of Thursday and that dry weather likely continues into at least Sunday afternoon. We will still see those falling temperatures with the major dive on Wednesday morning from near 60 early in the day to the 40's by midday, then holding in the 40's through the afternoon. The breeze along with clouds will keep Wednesday night temperatures in the middle 30's, but the wind chills will drop into the 20's. We will see the sun return the second half of Thursday, but highs will remain in the middle 40's. Wind chills will be in the 20's during late Wednesday night and the first part of Thursday.
Halloween evening will have clear skies, no chance of precipitation, and light winds in the evening. I am now forecasting temperatures in the 25 to 30 degree range during Trick or Treating time and bottoming out in the middle 20's. .
Next Warming Trend Begins Fri PM
The coolness won't last long, as high temperatures will return to the 50's on Friday. We could see temperatures again approaching or topping 60 through Sunday. After the Tuesday night-Wednesday precipitation threat, the next chance for precipitation is uncertain as the computer forecasts aren't consistent about what happens to the next storm moving into the West. They all having it stalling in the central or southern Intermountain Region, but can't agree on the timing of when it moves eastward or whether it works together with a northern storm track low. So, both the temperatures and the potential precipitation threat is uncertain from Sunday night through Wednesday.
Approaching Warm and Dry Milestones Including October
Temperature
- October: 52.9 degrees, 9th warmest (45.7 degree average)
- April-October: 62.5 degrees, 3rd warmest behind 1900 (64.4 degrees) and 1921 (62.8 degrees); overall average 58.7 degrees
- May-October: 65.0 degrees, tied with 2023 for 2nd warmest behind 1900 (66.7 degrees); overall average 61.1 degrees
- Year Through Oct: 52.1 degrees, warmest by 0.7 degrees over 2012 (46.2 degree average)
- May 2023-Oct 2024 (period of consecutive warmer than average months): 54.4 degrees, 1.7 degrees warmer than May 2011-October 2012 (48.7 degree average)
- Dec 2023-Oct 2024: Only 67 of 336 days were cooler than average (5 percent)
Precipitation
- October: 0.30 inch, 2.04 inches below average, 7th driest on record
- September-October: 0.65 inch, 4.70 inches below average, 2nd driest behind 1952 (0.14 inch)
- September-October Days with Precipitation >= 0.01 inch: 8 days, tied with 1966 for 3rd lowest behind 1952 (3 days) and 1899 (7 days); overall average: 16.5 days
This doesn't count potential precipitation tonight and tomorrow.
Set Clocks Back One Hour Sat Nt
And, I'll keep this reminder on this page all week: Daylight savings time ends on Saturday night (2 AM Sunday November 3). Turn the clocks back an hour Saturday night.
Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast
Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"
Tuesday 10/29/2024: Mostly cloudy in the morning, some partial sunshine in the afternoon, still breezy, and ridiculously warm for late October. A slight chance of a rain shower. High: between 65 and 70 (record warm high: 74 in 1937,1950). Winds: NE 5-15 MPH, becoming SE in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.
Tuesday Night: Cloudy, breezy, warm and uncomfortably humid. A better chance of late night scattered showers or thunderstorms. Low: between 52 and 57. (record warm low: 56 in 1901) Winds: SW 8-15 MPH, becoming N late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.
Wednesday 10/30/2024: Cloudy, windy, and turning much cooler. A good chance for scattered rain showers, especially morning and midday. Early temperatures between 55 and 60, falling into the 40's by early afternoon. Winds: becoming NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.
Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"
Wednesday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, and much cooler. A chance of a late night rain or snow showers. Accumulation would range from nothing to perhaps a partial coating on grass. Low: between 33 and 38. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH evening, 8-15 MPH late. Wind chill: between 23 and 30. Chance of measurable rainfall or snowfall: 40%.
Thursday 10/31/2024: Cloudy and breezy in the morning with a few early snow showers, then perhaps some sunny breaks midday and afternoon with easing winds. Seasonably cool, which will feel like an arctic blast compared to earlier in the week. High: between 42 and 47. Winds: N 10-20 MPH in the morning, 5-15 MPH in the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.
Halloween Early Evening (5-9 PM): Mainly clear with mostly calm winds and chilly. Temperatures falling through the 30's to the middle 20's. Winds: light SW. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Thursday Night: Clear, light winds, and chilly. Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: light evening, SE 5 MPH late. Wind chill: between 18 and 25. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Friday 11/1/2024: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and back to October-like temperatures. High fire danger. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Friday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and not nearly as cool. Low: between 40 and 45. Winds: S 10-20 MPH. Wind chill: in the 30's. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Saturday 11/2/2024: Mixed clouds and sun, blustery and warmer again. A chance for a late day rain shower. Very high to extreme fire danger. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.
Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"
Extended: Breezy and warmer Sunday (Highs near or above 60)???? Uncertain chances for rain Sunday night and Monday??? Uncertain temperatures early next week????
Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Tuesday through Wednesday, 4 Wednesday night and Thursday, 6 Thursday night through Friday night, 5 Saturday, 2 Sunday.
Yesterday's High: 77°F (broke old record of 73 set in 1912); Overnight Low (through 2 AM Tuesday): 60°F; Top Wind Gust (through 2 AM Tuesday): 33 MPH at 3:06 PM
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None
October 29 Historic Data | High | Low |
Average Temperatures | 49°F | 31°F |
Record Temperatures | 74°F (1937,1950) | 52°F (1974) |
27°F (1913,1923,1925) | 6°F (1925) |
Next Update: Wednesday, October 30, 2024 6 AM
Links
Surface
- Full UCAR surface chart menu
- NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up
- NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations
- MesoWest: Last 48 hours of St. Cloud Observations
- Full NWS Aviation Center Zoom-In Map
- Full College of DuPage surface map menu (click on surface map and area)
- NWS WPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map
- NWS WPC surface map menu
- Weisman's scale of Minnesota Muggy
- NWS WPC Short-Range forecast map
- NWS WPC 0-7 day forecast map loop
- NWS WPC three-day steering wind forecast
- US Air and Sports Net MN Wind Chill map
- NWS NOHRSC Snow Analyses
Satellite
- College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
- Colorado State RAMDIS Menu
- NASA GHCC Satellite Menu
- NWS GOES Geostationary Satellite Menu (Tropical Atlantic)
- University of Wisconsin-Madison SSEC US Real-Time Satellite Imagery
- 7-day N. American Composite IR loop
- Worldwide Geostationary Satellite Looper (use pull-down menu for different earth areas)
- High-resolution MODIS images (polar orbiter)
- Zoom-in on active tropical cyclones
Radar
- NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop
- NWS Chanhassen radar loop (fancy graphics)
- NWS Chanhassen radar loop (no terrain; faster running)
- NWS Chanhassen radar loop and derived products (from College of DuPage)
- NWS National Radar Loop
- College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu (links to velocity and dual polarization data)
- Environment Canada Canadian Prairies radar loop
- Environment Canada Ontario radar loop
Current Watches/Warnings
- US Watch/Warning Map from National Weather Service
- NWS Twin Cities Regional watch warning map
- Today's NWS Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook
- Active Tropical Cyclones in eastern Pacific and Atlantic from NWS National Hurricane Center
- Potential Flooding Areas from the NWS Weather Prediction Center
- Air Quality Index from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
Weather Safety
- NWS Weather Safety Page
- CDC Natural Disaster and Severe Weather Safety
- Severe Weather Safety from the National Weather Service
- NWS Hot Weather and Sun/Ultraviolet Safety
- NWS Winter Storm Safety
- NWS Cold Weather Safety
- Yesterday's Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports are here
- NWS Hurricane Safety Page
- NWS National Hurricane Center overview of storm surge (coastal flooding)
- Minnesota MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
- Minnesota DNR Wildfire danger
- US Average Weather Related Deaths from NWS
Ground and Air Travel
- Minnesota (high bandwidth)
- Minnesota (faster loading)
- Iowa (high bandwidth)
- Iowa (faster loading)
- North Dakota
- South Dakota
- Wisconsin
- Manitoba
- Ontario
- National Weather Service Enhanced Data Display Forecast Tool
- Airline Flight Delays and Cancellations from FlightAware.com
Climate
- Yesterday's Saint Cloud Climate Summary
- St. Cloud Weather Summaries by month
- Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall maps
- Minnesota State Climatology Office create your own precipitation table
- NWS Create Your Own Rainfall Map
- Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
- This Morning's Low Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
- Daily High/Low/Precip/Snowfall by Month (1997-current)
- National Weather Service Saint Cloud Daily Weather Site
- Saint Cloud Daily Normals, Records, and Extremes
- Bob Weisman's Ultimate Saint Cloud Climate Page
- NWS National High/Low Temperature Table and 2 Day Forecast
Drought
- St. Cloud Growing Season Rainfall and Departure from normal (at the bottom of this forecast each day)
- National Drought Mitigation Center's US Drought Monitor (updated on Thursdays)
- Minnesota Weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report from USDA NASA (updated on Mondays)
- DNR Waters Streamflow Report (updated on Mondays)
- NWS Create Your Own Rainfall Map
- More Drought Links (from the State Climatology Office, Minnesota DNR)
- Minnesota Major City Daily High/Low/Precip by Month (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
- DNR Forestry/Fire Conditions page
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!
Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department home page.