Monday, December 23, 2024 3:15AM

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

It's The Most Fogg-i-ful Time of the Year

Not Much Spotty Freezing Drizzle....So Far

So far, Minnesota is lucking out on the potential light precipitation overnight. There have been radar echoes in patches (set number of frames to at least 96 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop), but there have been very few reports of any precipitation at the ground so far (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), and they have been under the stronger echoes in the eastern Dakotas. But, there will still be a small chance for some freezing drizzle or some flurries through the morning rush hour. Thus far, there are only a few patches of slippery main roads on the MnDOT Minnesota road reports.

Persistent Clouds Likely Today and Tomorrow (Fog Tonight into Tomorrow AM?)

As the weak storm system moves from South Dakota southeastward (see College of DuPage north central US shortwave infrared satellite loop), there are most persistent low clouds on the northern flank of the storm, which extend well into Ontario and Manitoba (see GeoColor satellite loop from from Colorado State satellite slider). These clouds are producing mainly fog just to our north (see horizontal line reports on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Temperatures have also fallen back into the teens under these clouds.

We will get a little bit cooler, mainly this evening, as that air from northern Minnesota works it way into central Minnesota. High temperatures today will be above average, but a little cooler than yesterday (upper 20's to near 30). We will have light winds the first half of tonight, so we may have a better shot at some dense fog overnight, which could extend into tomorrow morning. There also could be some patchy freezing drizzle. I don't expect a lot of sun tomorrow and highs will remain in the upper 20's to near 30.

Milder Christmas Day into Late Week

On Wednesday and Thursday, the flow will become more southwest-to-northeast, and some of the milder air in the western Dakotas and Montana (see even milder highs on the 3 PM Sunday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) will try to move in. That will push likely highs above freezing, although the melting snow will add to the low level moisture, so we will have trouble seeing much sun. I will hold off on forecasting highs in the 40's until we make some progress melting the snow. Lows will be in the upper 20's to near 30. At this point, the southeast wind appears to persist at night, so the dense fog threat is relatively low.

Friday Chance of Mainly Rain???

There will be a split storm track with the southern systems having access to more moisture. That will fuel the forecast rain over Oklahoma and Arkansas with one storm occurring today into tomorrow (see Days 1-2 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) and a second stronger storm late in the week (see Days 4-7 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The computer forecasts now agree on that second system moving northward, possibly producing precipitation (and alliteration) over Minnesota Friday and Friday night, perhaps into Saturday (see Days 4-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The air aloft would be warm enough to produce mostly rain, with a chance of some snow mixing in if the precipitation persists into Saturday. That whole forecast is still uncertain, but could turn the mild weather a bit more clammy and miserable late in the week.

National Travel Issues

The main travel trouble spots continue to be those Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley, as noted above, and the West Coast, where a series of storm will produce heavy rain in lower areas (see NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) and snow in the mountains from Seattle to San Francisco (see Days 4-7 on the NWS WPC winter weather outlook).

I heard plenty from my New York City relatives as our late week cold moved into that area yesterday (note highs only in the teens on the 3 PM Sunday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). Early this morning, temperatures are near or below zero in much of New York and interior New England (see upper right panel of current hour temperature departure from average from Penn State ewall, which are current temperatures), but milder air will begin to move in today, although that will produce some snow in northern New York and New England today (set tab to 18 UTC, noon CST, Tuesday on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter weather guidance). Then, they will join the rest of the country east of the Rockies with milder than average air (see current hour temperature departure from average from Penn State ewall).

Travel Links:

1. Road Conditions
   1. Minnesota
   2. North Dakota
   3. South Dakota
   4. Iowa
   5. Wisconsin
   6. Manitoba
   7. Ontario
2. Air Travel
   1. Flightaware
      1. Delay and cancellation list
      2. "Misery" Map of flight delays

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Monday 12/23/2024: A slight chance for an early flurry or freezing drizzle. Mostly cloudy midday and afternoon. Still mild. High: between 27 and 32. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Monday Night: Cloudy, light winds, and a little colder. Maybe some areas of dense fog and spotty freezing drizzle. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: light evening, SE 5 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 12/24/2024: Some fog possible during the morning. Mostly cloudy the rest of the day. Continued mild, but clammy. High: between 25 and 30. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and milder. Low: between 20 and 25. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Christmas Day (Wed) 12/25/2024: Cloudy with perhaps a few sunny periods and even milder. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night (Chanukah Begins): Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, and even milder. Low: between 28 and 33. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday (Boxing Day, Kwanzaa Begins) 12/26/2024: Once again partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, and mild. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Thursday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, and even milder. Low: between 28 and 33. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday 12/27/2024: Mostly cloudy with a chance for some rain showers, breezy, and mild. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Extended: Continued very mild through the end of next week??? More rain chances Friday night??? A chance of rain, perhaps mixing with snow on Saturday??? Maybe a bit cooler Sunday????

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 6 Monday through Tuesday night, 5 Wednesday through Thursday, 3 Thursday night and Friday.

Yesterday's High: 31°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Monday): 28°F;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): None

Next Update: Tuesday, December 24, 2024 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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