Friday, February 21, 2025 2:35 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

20's Never Felt Better

We are finally climbing out of our cold hole. The cloud layer allowed yesterday morning's central Minnesota temperatures to remain above zero, instead of the minus single digits and minus teens in southern Minnesota where skies remained clear (see yesterday's 6 AM CST NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). Wind chills were in the -25 to -15 range where skies were clear (set NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up to early morning yesterday), but sunshine won the day, allowing highs to do about 5 degrees better than forecast, reaching the upper teens to even 20 in some areas (see yesterday's 3 PM CST NWS WPC North America zoom-in map).

We are having one more clear and calm night in the leftover cold air, so temperatures are back into minus territory (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) and could get to -10 in a few places. Winds are generally light, but the southeast wind is beginning to affect parts of western and central Minnesota, so we have one last night of spotty minus teens and minus 20's wind chill (see latest NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up), but this will be the last of the leftover cold air for the next several days.

Sub-Zero Days Approaching....Average

Summing up the cold period, St. Cloud has added six straight mornings (including yesterday and this morning) of sub-zero lows. This morning will finish a streak of 14 out of the past 15 days and 16 of the past 19 days with a below zero low. That makes 37 total days this winter with a low of at least zero, approaching the average of 42.7 days. We only managed one -20 low (giving us 3 for the season; 5.4 average days) in the latest cold snap and one high of zero or colder (also giving us 3 for the winter; 4.3 average days). During the recent period with frequent mild winters, -20 has been more difficult to achieve than in the past. Since 1996-1997, there are the colder years, in which we get an above average number of -20 lows, but the other years (nearly average temperatures, like this year, or milder than average), there are far fewer -20 days. Note the large number of recent seasons without a -20 low. Getting shutout in -20 days occurred far less frequently from the early 90's and back.

Good Shot at First Cooler Than Average Month Since April 2023

This February is certainly averaging colder than normal (10.3 degrees colder than average through Wednesday), so we have a fighting chance for St. Cloud's first colder than average month since April 2023. We still have to get through a milder period, like we had in late December and January, but we might just make it.

And, this cold is still not offsetting the low snow season we are having. St. Cloud did get that 13.1 inches of snow early in February to make the ground look like winter. But, we have just short of 27 inches for the snow season, still more than 5 inches below average. This week's storm from Kansas to North Carolina means there's a similar snowpack on the ground in eastern North Carolina, Omaha, and southern Missouri as there is in central Minnesota. Kansas City, St. Louis, Lexington, KY, and Washington, DC, have nearly the same seasonal snowfall as Minneapolis-St. Paul (all in yellow, when you set the data to seasonal snowfall on the NWS NOHSC national snowfall analysis)

Close to Average Temperatures Coming Today

The milder air coming off the Rockies expanded its grip towards Calgary in western Alberta and into at least central Montana yesterday. 30's were common afternoon temperatures in Montana with 40's east of the Canadian Rockies (see yesterday's 3 PM CST NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). So, that air is on the way. Given yesterday slightly warmer than predicted highs in Minnesota, I think that middle 20's are likely today after the cold start, especially since there are merely some thin high clouds on the way for this afternoon (see GeoColor satellite loop from Colorado State satellite slider).

Thawing Begins Tomorrow

The milder air off the eastern slopes of the Rockies will be here, at least at 5,000 feet above the ground, by tomorrow. That would set us up for highs at least in the 30's tomorrow and Saturday. However, the winds won't be that strong since we won't have a high pressure system nearly as strong as the cold one from the past few days. That means generally light winds. Since the warm air tends to travel over the top of leftover cold air, the air won't mix very well vertically. Light ground winds mean that the air won't mix that well horizontally. And, the mild conditions will produce some snow melt, which may trap moisture near the ground. So, there is some potential for fog developing. The first threat for that would be Saturday night after a Saturday with some melting. That could reduce the amount of Sunday sunshine, so I am not ready to forecast 40's at any time over the weekend.

Monday Best Chance for 40+

Monday appears to be the mildest day. A weak cold front will come through early Monday, which will clean out any low-level moisture. The drier conditions and the northwest wind will give us a better shot at substantial melting with high temperatures climb to 40 or a bit above. There will be a chance for late day or early evening precipitation, which will be light and may come in the form of either rain or snow showers.

Still Milder Than Average Through Wednesday, No Colder Than Average Air Surges Through Late Week

Tuesday and Wednesday will continue the mild trend, although temperatures will be mostly back in the 30's. There are conflicting signs about a possible storm system Tuesday night. At worst, it appears that this system would just drop a few rain or snow showers, but there is no guarantee of even that much.

Beyond Tuesday night, any cold fronts become difficult to time, so my best guess is alternation between near average and milder than average temperatures. No major precipitation is in sight.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 2/21/2025: Sunshine through a few afternoon high clouds, becoming breezy in the afternoon, with a return to seasonable cold. High: between 22 and 27. Winds: becoming SW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill: between -20 and -5 during the morning, above zero during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Friday Night: Cloudy during the evening, then partly cloudy late at night, light winds, and much milder. Low: between +5 and +10. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH evening, 5 MPH late. Wind chill: between -10 and +5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Saturday 2/22/2025: Mixed clouds and sun with a light breeze. Temperatures will feel like a heat wave! High: between 32 and 37. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Saturday Night: Partly clear during the evening, cloudy late at night with some fog possible. Even milder. Low: between 12 and 17. Winds: light SW. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 2/23/2025: Some low clouds or fog for a while during the morning. Becoming partly sunny and continued mild midday and afternoon. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Sunday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Maybe some fog. A slight chance for a snow or rain shower. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: SW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Monday 2/24/2025: Mixed clouds and sun and milder. A chance for a late day snow or rain shower. High: between 37 and 42. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 30%.

Monday Night: Cloudy with a slight chance of a snow or rain shower. Mild. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 30%.

Tuesday 2/25/2025: Mixed clouds and sun and not quite as mild. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Extended: Milder than average temperatures continue Tuesday night into the first part of Wednesday??? Average to above average temperatures continue late week?? Only occasional chances for light precipitation???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Thursday through Friday, 6 Friday night through Saturday, 5 Saturday night and Sunday, 3 Sunday night and Monday.

Yesterday's High: 20°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Friday): -3°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None

Next Update: Monday, February 24, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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