Monday, January 27, 2025 3:45 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Will This Week's Warmth Overcome Mid-January Cold?

Little Arctic Air to Work With and Our Weather Will be Flowing More West-to-East Later in the Week

Our steering winds continue to blow from northwest to southeast (see mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), but last week's arctic plunge has drained the really cold air from most of North America. Only Quebec, out of all of central Canada, had highs below zero yesterday afternoon (see yesterday's 3 PM CST NWS WPC North America surface map). The really cold air is confined to north of Hudson Bay and the Arctic Ocean islands of north central Canada. And, the persistent high aloft over the eastern Pacific (change from southwest-to-northeast flow in the eastern Pacific to the northwest-to-southeast flow in western North America; see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) is finally going to weaken during this week, allowing weather systems to move on a more west-to-east track, meaning that weather systems won't be able to tap air from northern Canada anyway. That will allow a much milder period, even milder than the above average temperatures (high in the upper 20's or lower 30's) we saw over the weekend (see 14-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest).

Still in Dry Pattern (Flurries Today, Some Significant Snow in NE Minnesota)

Precipitation-wise, there will continue to be a pair of storm tracks. The track to our south, which has the current southern California storm and the weaker Southeast US storm in it (see mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider and College of DuPage continental US radar loop) will limit the moisture that gets this far to the north, so central and southern Minnesota only have a small chance for precipitation. The best shot will be as the next wave of milder air tries to remove the leftover cold air near the ground today through tomorrow. That's what is producing the band of clouds moving from the Canadian Prairie Provinces into the Dakotas and Minnesota early this morning (see GeoColor satellite loop from Colorado State satellite slider). Our best shot at a little light snow or flurries will come today, but the moisture is quite limited. The main push of much milder air over the leftover cold air will come tonight and tomorrow and will primarily affect northeastern Minnesota. The Boundary Waters could end up seeing a shovelable snowfall (2-4 inches; set tab to 00 UTC Wed on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance), but I expect very little in central and southern Minnesota.

After today and tonight's small chance for a little snow, I don't see much chance until we get late in the weekend or into early next week. At this point, the threats for precipitation still appear to be small (see NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

How Warm Can We Get? Upper 30's? 40's?

So, the main weather news this week is how warm we can get. Warmer air will try and push in for today and tomorrow. With a lot of clouds around, today's highs may stick in the middle to perhaps upper 30's, but we have a shot at 40 degrees or even milder tomorrow. Low temperatures will be in the 20's, like they are this morning (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), which is where the average high is supposed to be in late January. The storm in central Canada is fairly strong, so we will see wind gusts over 25 MPH this morning and over 30 MPH tomorrow.

Wednesday will be a shade cooler, but highs should still end up near or above average (in the middle to upper 20's). Thursday appears to be the mildest day of the week, with highs in the 40's likely in much of Minnesota and even some lower 50's possible in the snow-free areas of southern Minnesota (yes, the Alabama coast and part of northern Florida still have more snow on the ground than southern Minnesota). St. Cloud's record warm high (44) for Thursday, January 30 was tied last year and we will have a shot at it this year. Friday will be a bit cooler, but highs should continue to be above freezing.

Will 20 Month Streak of Above Average Temperatures Continue?

Through Saturday, St. Cloud's average January temperature is still running more than 3 degrees colder than average, but the days this week with those warm highs, and just as important, milder than average lows will dramatically raise the temperature. The question is whether we can overcome last week's cold enough to wipe out the negatives and keep our 20 month streak of warmer than average temperatures going.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Monday 1/27/2025: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and mild. Occasional snow flurries, especially midday and early afternoon. High: between 33 and 38. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH during the morning, becoming NW during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Monday Night: Partly clear with slowly diminishing wind. Perhaps a late night snow flurry. Low: between 18 and 23. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH early evening, NW 5 MPH late evening and after midnight, SW 5-10 MPH in the early morning hours. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 1/28/2025: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and even milder. High: between 37 and 42. Winds: SW 10-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH, becoming NW by middle afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Tuesday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and milder. Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Wednesday 1/29/2025: Partly sunny, breezy, and back to seasonable cold. High: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH during the morning, 5-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and still mild. Low: between 18 and 23. Winds: S-SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday 1/30/2025: Sunny, breezy, and very mild again. High: between 40 and 45. (record warm high: 44 set in 1931 and 2024). Winds: SW 8-15 MPH, shifting to W late in the day. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Partly clear and continued mild. Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday 1/31/2025: Mixed clouds and sun and breezy, but not quite as warm. High: between 33 and 38. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Extended: Continuing to swing between near average and above average temperatures through next weekend??? Turning seasonably cold early next week?? Any precipitation threat would be light???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Monday through Wednesday, 6 Wednesday night through Friday.

Yesterday's High: 32°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Monday): 17°F;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): None

Next Update: Tuesday, January 28, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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