Saturday, December 21, 2024 2:25 AM

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

This Site Will Be Busy Through New Year's Day

It's my busiest time of the entire year. Even the two to three-storm-a-week winter of 2022-2023 doesn't compare to now. Many people have travel plans, but they are most spread out than over Thanksgiving, so there is a desire for travel weather from now all the way through New Year's Day. Then, we are in the home stretch of 2024, a weather year that has created headlines, the most recent being the Cyclone Chido landfall in Mayotte. Locally, the questions are:

1. How wet will we end up after near record levels of rain through August, then a much drier fall?
2. Can the milder weather last week, except yesterday, and mostly milder than average weather ahead during the upcoming week produce the warmest year on record? (an average December temperature would tie for the warmest on record)
3. And, will we see any more snow, and how would that affect travel?

That means

1. I'll be providing daily weather updates, weekends and holidays included, with some attention to national travel weather (and the travel links are back).
2. I'll begin working on the 2024 year-end weather summary.

At this point, the weather picture for Minnesota looks quiet through at least Christmas Day. We are celebrating the December winter solstice (only 8 hours and 41 minutes of daylight) today by beginning with some of the coldest temperatures of the season so far. There have been some temperatures in the minus teens so far in central Minnesota with readings in the minus 20's in northern Minnesota (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), but the adjustment to milder weather will begin. Note that temperatures under some clouds (see GeoColor satellite loop from from Colorado State satellite slider) in northwestern Minnesota are back above zero.

Today's warming will be modest as highs nose into the upper teens. However, a southeast breeze will develop that will keep the milder trend going even overnight. Temperatures will hold in the teens or rise towards 20's by tomorrow morning. The big temperature question for Sunday through at least Wednesday is whether we will either have low clouds persist through the day or whether the new snow will reflect enough sun to hold temperatures below freezing. However, highs will be at least in the upper 20's and likely get to at least 30 on several days. Lows may remain at least in the 20's through the period.

The only decent chance for any light snow will come with a low pressure system on Sunday night. However, this system will track to our north and have very little moisture away from the ground. Even the 12 UTC Monday (6 AM CST) tab on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter weather guidance has trouble covering any part of northern Minnesota with at least an inch of snow, so the most possible would simply be a tenth of an inch or two. And, that's the best chance for any precipitation listed for the next 7 days (see NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

I do have the possibility of some fog on any light wind evening. For now, I have that chance on Monday and Tuesday nights. Otherwise, it will be quiet weather locally through the middle of next week.

By the way, I am taking wind chills out of the forecasts when they are above zero. We've now had enough sub-zero wind chill (and will have some for a while for this morning) that plus territory wind chills shouldn't seem as bad.

Nationally, the main storminess will be along the West Coast from Seattle into the northern half of California (see NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast for rain potential; see Days 4-7 of the NWS winter weather outlook for snow potential). During the early part of next week, a southern storm track will bring showers and thunderstorms to Arkansas and east Texas, which will spread more widely through the Southeast as the week goes on (see Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). Those will be the main areas that air travel may be affected by delays not caused by a large number of travelers. Warmer than average temperatures will become widespread through the country, once the current cold air moves eastward (due to leave even the east by early next week).

Travel Links:

1. Road Conditions
   1. Minnesota
   2. North Dakota
   3. South Dakota
   4. Iowa
   5. Wisconsin
   6. Manitoba
   7. Ontario
2. Air Travel
   1. Flightaware
      1. Delay and cancellation list
      2. "Misery" Map of flight delays

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Saturday 12/21/2024: Mixed clouds and sun, a bit of a breeze, and not quite as cold. Maybe a stray flurry. High: between 15 and 20. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -15 and 0 during the morning, in the plus single digits during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and milder. Perhaps a flurry. Low: between 12 and 17, rising to near 20 late at night. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Wind chill: in the plus single digits. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 12/22/2024: Mixed clouds and sun and breezy with a return to near seasonable temperatures. Perhaps a flurry. High: between 24 and 28. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Sunday Night: Cloudy, light winds, with some areas of fog possible evening through early morning. A chance of light snow or flurries late at night. Perhaps between a dusting and a half inch of new snow. Even milder. Temperatures in the upper 20's to near 30 evening, falling to between 24 and 28 in the early morning hours. Winds: SE 5 MPH during the evening, NW 5-10 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Monday 12/23/2024: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for flurries. Light winds and seasonably cold. High: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Monday Night: Clear, light winds, and colder. Maybe some areas of dense fog. Low: between 10 and 15 early evening, rising to near 20 late. Winds: light evening, SE 5 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 12/24/2024: Maybe some early low clouds, then mixed clouds and sun and mild. High: between 28 and 34. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Tuesday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, and milder. Low: between 23 and 28. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Christmas Day (Wed) 12/25/2024: Cloudy with perhaps a few sunny periods and continued mild. High: between 28 and 34. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Continued very mild through the end of next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Saturday through Sunday, 5 Sunday night through Tuesday, 4 Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Yesterday's High: 19°F (set at midnight Thursday night); Yesterday's Daytime High: 13°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Saturday): -7°F;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Saturday): 0.28 inch melted; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Saturday): None

Next Update: Sunday, December 22, 2024 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department home page.