Thursday,  April 3, 2025  6:00 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Snow Ends This Morning, Then Slow Melting into the Weekend

Snow redeveloped by early afternoon across southern and central Minnesota as the upper air low pushed through the state (see mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). The initial snow produced shallow thunderstorms across southern and central Minnesota (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). While many of the snow depth reports on the NWS Twin Cities local snowfall reports map are from yesterday morning, the reports over 6 inches (yellow or orange) were from the afternoon or evening, and included Little Falls with 7.5 inches. Garfield in west central Minnesota had 9.5 inches. And, the North Shore had reports of over 10 inches, including 12.3 inches in Finland and 10.5 inches near Grand Marais, Silver Bay, and Knife River. Other reports from northern Minnesota included Bemidji with 10 inches. There will be some reports over 15 inches when the final numbers come in later this morning. Roads are completely covered with snow over the persistent heavy snow area to our north, including Hwy. 10 from Rice northward (see MnDOT Minnesota road reports)

Temperatures in central Minnesota have remained in the 32-34 degree range (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), so there has been melting whenever the snow let up. The burst of snow in the early afternoon produced another 3 inches in St. Cloud (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations), but it has melted to just 2 new inches as of midnight. Most importantly, St. Cloud Regional Airport has picked up a total of 0.95 inches of precipitation since the storm began midday Tuesday. When this snow finally melts, there will be an opportunity for surface plants greening.

The snow will continue until later this morning in the heavy snow area (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) to the north of St. Cloud as the upper low drifts northeastward into Ontario (see mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). St. Cloud and Willmar could see another period of light accumulating snow during the early morning hours with an additional accumulation of between a dusting and an inch. So, there will be some new snow on local roads for the morning commute. The winter storm warning in west central, north central and northeastern Minnesota and the winter weather advisory over Lake Mille Lacs, St. Cloud, and Benson will expire at 6 AM this morning.

I am relatively confident that the active weather pattern, which produced the ice storm last Saturday night and the wet snow over the past day and a half, will calm down. We will be in a northwest-to-southeast flow pattern in the northern branch of the storm track, so any weather system that comes through will have very little moisture to tap. There is a small chance for a little snowfall late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening. There's a 1 in 3 chance of seeing a snow shower, but little accumulation is likely, since ground temperatures will likely melt the snow on contact with the ground. Sunday afternoon and evening may also produce a little precipitation, most likely in the form of some light rain showers or sprinkles.

The main question will be how warm we can get. The air mass immediately behind the storm was over Manitoba and Saskatchewan yesterday (see 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), producing highs in the middle 30's. We do have the new snow cover, so some heat will be lost melting the snow. Still, I expect our highs to range from the upper 30's to near 40 through Saturday.

The Sunday system could bring in some milder air ahead of it, so highs could climb into the middle to upper 40's. However, the cold front due Sunday night will usher in Alaskan air for Monday and Tuesday. Note that the air in central Alaska isn't really that cold (highs in the 20's on the cool side of the front; see 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), so I am leaving the high temperatures in the 40's, although we might see a day with highs in the 30's. The overall long-range forecast trend is to push the western extent of the northern storm track eastward with time, meaning we will have a shot at getting air descending down the east slopes of the Canadian Rockies, so there is potential for a mid-week warm-up.

The southern portion of the storm track will remain active across areas to our south, which suffered a bad severe weather day yesterday, including injuries in Missouri, Kentucky, and Illinois. There is also a large flooding threat from Oklahoma to Ohio (green on the NWS continental US watch-warning map).The severe weather and flooding threat will continue today and tomorrow along with the flooding threat (highest category today, pink, near Memphis, with continuing threat tomorrow; see Days 2-4 on the NWS WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook; see NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast Days 1-5 for amounts)

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Thursday 4/3/2025: Any light snow or flurries ending near sunrise, then cloudy and breezy through the morning with perhaps a few afternoon sunny breaks. Continued cool. High: between 37 and 42. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH during the morning, 5-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Cloudy with light winds. Perhaps some fog. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: light NE evening, light SE late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Friday 4/4/2025: Mixed clouds and sun and a little milder. A slight chance of a late day flurry or snow shower. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: SE 5 MPH during the morning, NE 5-10 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Friday Night: Cloudy with a chance of an evening flurry or snow shower, then partial clearing, breezy, and cool. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: becoming NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Saturday 4/5/2025: Sunny to partly cloudy, breezy, and a bit cooler. High: between 37 and 42. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Saturday Night: Clear early, a few clouds late at night, and seasonably cool. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: W-NW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 4/6/2025: Some morning sun, then clouding up, breezy, and milder. A slight chance for a sprinkle. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late in the day. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Sunday Night: Cloudy, windy, and cooler. Perhaps an evening sprinkle. Low: between 23 and 28. Winds: SW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Monday 4/7/2025: Mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and a little milder. A slight chance for a sprinkle. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late in the day. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Extended: Closer to average temperatures Tuesday?? Slowly turning milder during the second half of next work week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 6 Thursday, 7 Thursday night, 6 Friday through Saturday, 5 Saturday night, 4 Sunday and Sunday night, 5 Monday, 3 Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 35°F; Overnight Low (through 6 AM Thursday): 32°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 6 AM Thursday): 0.61 inch (storm total: 0.95 inch); SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 6 AM Thursday): 0.73 inch melted/4.0 inches snow (storm total: 1.01 inch melted/6.0 inches snow)

Next Update: Friday, April 4, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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