Monday, March 3, 2025  2:20 AM

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Storm Track Must Change to Provide Precipitation Relief (And It Will Tues-Wed)

See What It Would Take To Change Our Precipitation Luck in Feb Weather Summary

During the past week, there have been a number of weather-related issues that caught my attention. One was by request: what type of weather would it take to ease the dry conditions that have dominated Minnesota since at least the beginning of last fall? So, my completed February 2025 and Winter 2024-2025 St. Cloud weather summary not only reviews the month that snapped our 21-month long milder than average streak, but also examines the type of weather pattern changes that would bring more wet storms close enough to Minnesota to produce substantial precipitation and the concepts behind long range forecasts for the spring.

Not Much Fat in the National Weather Service Employment Pool

The second newsworthy concept is the National Weather Service, which had large layoffs last week. I know and work with a number of people at the NWS. Some work as forecasters in the local offices, which serve the entire country. In the central and western portions of the US, the NWS people are the only locally-based source of forecasts (recall how many colors there were on this watch-warning map a week ago). Like other 24/7 businesses, these people work rotating shifts from day to evening to midnights. During times of severe weather, which frequently occur either during the evening or the overnight shift in the Plains, forecasters from the day shift volunteer to be on call to handle the added responsibilities during severe weather (getting the warnings out, taking in local storm reports and publishing them, and taking questions). All of this is required to get weather information to first responders trying to aid people in trouble, including wildfires, hurricanes, floods, severe weather, extreme heat and cold, high winds, and poor air quality. In addition, studies of citizen behavior during severe weather have shown that there has to be only one source of warnings so that people will take safety action, so all meteorologists use the NWS watches and warnings.

The National Weather Service also collects all the data from ground stations, runs the radar sites, takes the upper air data across the US, and the parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, distributes the data from satellites covering areas from the International Date Line to the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean. The National Center for Environmental Prediction also run the supercomputers that process all of the data, and use it to put out the computer forecasts. All of these data are used by any private meteorologists to come up with their own forecasts, including me. My colleague at NCEP has been involved in testing different methods of taking in data to produce the computer forecasts and developing improved programs for putting out the forecasts. But, computer forecasts have not completely advanced enough so that their raw output, often found on your device, is good enough to make a forecast. If you don't believe this, try making a spreadsheet of your device's current forecast for the high and low temperature over the next 7 days. Then, take down the actual high and low when it occurs. See how often that single number forecast is correct or even within 3 degrees of the actual.

The bottom line is that all of these NWS functions will be impaired by blanket layoffs. There's a difference between cutting waste or fat and cutting muscle or bone.

Tue-Wed and Fri Storms To Affect Parts of Minnesota

This work week's weather is going to be dominated by a pair of strong storms. Yes, this is being produced by a temporary change in the steering winds (an ingredient needed to help break out dry spell as noted in the February 2025 and Winter 2024-2025 St. Cloud weather summary). One storm in this west-to-east flow is pushing from Oklahoma into Arkansas overnight (see mid-troposphere water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). That storm will pass too far to the south for the storms to reach us (see College of DuPage continental US radar loop). However, it is pumping very moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into central Texas (see brown on the UCAR hourly dew point chart). That will make it easier for the next stronger storm, now near the Utah-Nevada border (see counterclockwise circulation on the mid-troposphere water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) to ingest a good moisture supply as it develops tonight over Colorado and pushes into Illinois by Wednesday. Severe weather is expected in Oklahoma and Texas today with a greater chance for severe storms in the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Gulf Coast tomorrow. The main threat will be straight-line damaging winds, but large hail and a few tornadoes, especially tomorrow, will occur. Several areas of heavy precipitation (of at least an inch; see Day 2 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) are expected in parts of the Mississippi Valley. The expected track of this storm will still be through northern Missouri and southeastern Iowa, which is a bit south of the usual track that can generate a lot of Minnesota precipitation. However, the strength of this storm and the large amount of available moisture is expected to push at least some of this precipitation into Minnesota.

Major Problems With Falling and Blowing Snow in South Central and Southeastern Minnesota Late Tuesday Through Wed AM

The precipitation will likely begin as rain or sprinkles late tonight or tomorrow and that will continue through the day. As the storm strengthens, the strong northeast flow will tap some cooler air from central Canada, allowing the lower atmosphere to become cold enough to produce snow on the far northern fringe of this storm. This has the potential to produce a band of between 4 and 8 inches of snow from northern Iowa into mainly south central and southeastern Minnesota into central Wisconsin and Upper Michigan (set tab to 18 UTC Wed on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). Since the storm will be very strong, the pressure difference between the low and a developing high pressure area over Alberta will be nearly as large as what we saw over Minnesota last Friday. So, the biggest travel hazard will be low visibility due to both falling and blowing snow in the heaviest snow band. The recent forecasts have been edging the storm a bit further to the south and making it a little weaker, so some of the snow depicted on that map may be overdone on the northern fringe of it.

Central MN: Some Rain Tuesday, Changing to Some Snow Tues Nt

But, the forecast of rain through much of Tuesday changing to snow sometime Tuesday evening and continuing into Wednesday morning will generally observed in much of central and southern Minnesota. Central, southwestern, and west central Minnesota are likely to have much less precipitation with the best chance for light rain or drizzle through Tuesday. There could be some sleet mixing in with the light rain showers during Tuesday evening, but I am expecting a period of steady snowfall late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Still, most of the area away from the I-90 corridor or Mankato in western and central Minnesota are likely to only see between a dusting and 2 inches of snow. The Twin Cities and the I-35 corridor could be deeper into the snow band, so there is a possibility of plowable snow after the transition. Again, that threat has to be balanced with the southward track trend, so future forecasts could also keep the Twin Cities in the lighter accumulations.

Strong Storm Will Repeat Last Friday's Winds on Tues Nt-Wed

We will again have high winds with gusts over 50 MPH on Tuesday night and Wednesday, so there will be issues of blowing objects and pushing vehicles over a lane. This could be tricky Wednesday morning when temperatures will dip below freezing, so there will be icy spots on untreated snow or ice lingering underneath the snow coating.

Fri Storm Might Brush Southern Minnesota? Otherwise, Back to Dry After Wed

There will be a third storm tracking more west-to-east, moving through Missouri on Friday. This one won't be as strong as the Tuesday-Wednesday low. There is some track disagreement among the computer forecasts, so the chance for some snowfall varies between Iowa and southern Minnesota. At this point, it doesn't appear that the precipitation from this system will get into central Minnesota.

The steering wind pattern is expected to become more northwest-to-southeast by late in the week, again keeping the available Gulf moisture away from any storm coming close to central Minnesota, so the dryness will resume after whatever we accumulate Tuesday and Wednesday.

Only A Brief Return to Near Average Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday

Temperature-wise, we will be quite mild headed into the large storm. Temperatures won't get to the earliest 70 degree high in St. Cloud history (last year), but we should see highs near or above 50 this afternoon. As the clouds begin to come in tonight, temperatures will remain above freezing and possibly near 40. Temperatures will hold in that range during the daytime hours tomorrow, but will edge closer to freezing late in the day. Temperatures will drop a bit below freezing tomorrow night, allowing the possible light snow accumulation. Wednesday's high will be in the middle 30's, a bit cooler than tomorrow. There will be that powerful wind, so wind chills will be in the plus single digits. Highs will return to near or just above 40 on Thursday and Friday.

The weather pattern is expected to progress eastward during the weekend and into the first part of next week. This will allow air that has been pulled over the eastern slopes of the Rockies into Minnesota, which would push temperatures well above average. The computer forecasts agree about the warming trend during the first half of next week, but the upcoming weekend may only be a few degrees milder than average (middle 30's highs).

Daylight Savings Time Begins Sat Nt (More Later)

And, I have to note that the changeover to Daylight Savings Time happens Saturday night. This is when we push clocks ahead an hour. That's also a topic I plan to cover later this week.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Monday 3/3/2025: Morning sunshine, some afternoon clouds, and continued mild. High: between 48 and 53. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Thickening clouds and still relatively mild. A chance of light rain or showers late at night. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: SE 5 MPH, becoming NE 5-10 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Tuesday 3/4/2025: Cloudy, turning windy, and not as mild. A good chance of morning light rain or showers, then sprinkles in the afternoon, possibly mixing with some sleet at times. Temperatures holding in the 30's. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH in the morning, 15-25 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 50% during the morning, 30% during the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy, blustery, and colder. Sprinkles changing to light snow or freezing drizzle during the evening, then becoming all snow late at night. Between a dusting and 2 inches of new snow are possible by morning. Spotty low visibility due to falling and blowing snow during the early morning hours. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: NE 20-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH evening. NW 20-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30% evening, 50% after midnight.

Wednesday 3/5/2025: Perhaps some lingering morning flurries, then becoming sunny. Still blustery and seasonably cold. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: NW 20-35 MPH with gusts over 50 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Wednesday Night: Clear, diminishing winds, and cooler. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH evening, W 5 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Thursday 3/6/2025: Sunshine through some afternoon high clouds, much less windy, and milder. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, breezy, and milder. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: E 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday 3/7/2025: Some sunshine through high clouds. A slight chance of an afternoon flurry. Seasonably mild. High: between 38 and 43. Winds: NE-N 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Extended: Above average weekend temperatures??? Much warmer during the first half of next week (50's and 60's)???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Monday through Tuesday, 6 Tuesday night, 7 Wednesday through Thursday, 5 Thursday night and Friday.

Yesterday's High: 41°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Monday): 29°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Monday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Monday): None

Next Update: Tuesday, March 4, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department home page.