July 2021 Saint Cloud Weather Summary

Extremely Dry Conditions Intensify in July

July 2021 St. Cloud Weather Summary

The dry conditions that dominated much of the spring and early summer intensified in July. The St. Cloud Municipal Airport only picked up 0.83 inch of July rainfall, 2.77 inches below the new 1991-2020 average of 3.60 inches. That ranks as the 6th driest July in St. Cloud rainfall records, which extend back to 1893. It was the driest July since 1975. The total rainfall deficit through much of the warm season has climbed to over 5 inches in St. Cloud. The May-July St. Cloud rainfall total is only 5.76 inches, 5.35 inches below average. This ranks as St. Cloud's 4th driest May-July and the driest late spring-early summer since 1988, the last multi-year prolonged drought in St. Cloud records.

Conditions were even drier just to the north and west of St. Cloud. These areas missed out on the few storms that produced substantial rain, so in Todd County, parts of Wadena County, Long Prairie and extending back to north central Minnesota (and also some areas to the south) rainfall deficits in the past 90 days were over 6 inches (see 90-day Minnesota rainfall deficit from NWS). Rainfall across the entire state for the growing season (April 1-July 27) ranks in the lowest 20 percent in most of Minnesota (red on the Minnesota weekly growing season rainfall deficit ranking; see for the latest) with pockets of less than 5 percent (brown) including from Paynesville southwestward.

Drought Problems: Low Soil Moisture, River Flow....

The lack of rain has led to streamflow in most rivers from the Minnesota River northward to drop to their lowest 25 percent of flows (orange on the USGS daily Minnesota streamflow map). Several rivers in central Minnesota are in the lowest 10 percent of flow levels. The Sauk River in St. Cloud showed some modest recovery from their lowest levels due to a major localized rainfall that dumped 1.5 to 2 inches in the Sauk Centre area (see brown areas on the Minnesota July rainfall map from NWS). However, the Mississippi River in St. Cloud remains at 3.8 feet, one of the 5 lowest readings in St. Cloud records.

The lack of rain has also produced dry soil conditions for agriculture. More than 80 percent of the moisture in agricultural areas was rated as being short or very short on moisture in the August 2 Minnesota Crop Condition and Progress report.

The dry conditions were mainly produced by a stalled weather pattern featuring a strong high in the central or southern Rockies. This tended to turn the steering winds to northwest-to-southeast, pushing drier air from the Canadian Prairie Provinces into Minnesota.

Warm Temperatures, But Often Not as Hot as Forecast

While July was warmer than average, it probably wasn't as warm as you may have expected. While St. Cloud temperatures climbed as high as 95 on July 4 and 94 on July 5, several of the periods when temperatures were expected to climb well above 90 and even above 95 didn't materialize in St. Cloud. The average July high temperature was 84.9 degrees, 3.3 degrees above the new 1991-2029 average, with 7 days with a high of 90 degrees or warmer. However, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport had 10 days that exceed 90.

Overall, the St. Cloud July Temperature was 71.7 degrees, 1.7 degrees warmer than average. And, there was still no day warmer than June 7 and 8 when the highs were 98 and 97 degrees. No record temperatures were broken in July.

Drought Expanded...

The continued dry conditions worsened the short-term water shortage in most of Minnesota. The US Drought Monitor showed a dramatic increase in the brown (severe drought) area and the appearance of a red (extreme drought) area in north central and central Minnesota during the past 4 weeks (set dates to July 27 and June 29 and run the slider on the US Drought Monitor comparison page). North central North Dakota had the worst (dark red) conditions since they have come off a low snowfall winter.

...With Frequent Visits From Canadian Wildfire Smoke

The combination of the warm and dry conditions led to persistent air quality problems from smoke. Air from over the widespread fires in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and western Ontario (red dots are out-of-control fires on the Canadian wildfire and fire danger map from Environment Canada) frequently moved into Minnesota whenever the upper-level winds were from the northwest. This persistent haze was one factor in why high temperatures were often cooler than forecast on days when the highs were in the 80's or lower 90's. In addition, sinking air from the stalled high over the Rockies often allowed the smoke at middle levels of the atmosphere to reach the ground. This produced a couple of periods of poor air quality during July, with the most persistent problems in the Red River Valley. However, the longest period was at the end of the month. At the start of this surge on July 29 and 30, air quality deteriorated to the purple (see Minnesota current air quality index from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency) and even brown categories (off the scale, air quality indices between 300 and 400) in parts of Minnesota, including Bemidji, Detroit Lakes, and St. Cloud. Those readings were as bad as the conditions during the worst of Los Angeles smog problems and at the low end of the air quality readings in China a few years ago, when the government shut down all industry before the Beijing Olympics in 2008.

Minnesota Wildfires Increased

The warm and frequently dry conditions were also favorable to allow wildfires to spread and develop in Minnesota. A fair number of "red dots" (see US Fire Weather and Avalanche Center wildfire map) have developed in the North Woods of Minnesota during the month of July and that doesn't count the large fires in Quetico Provincial Park, just on the Ontario side of the Boundary Waters (see Canadian wildfire and fire danger map).

     July 2021 Statistics