Weather
February 2002 Saint Cloud Weather Summary
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This Month's Daily Statistics
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DATE: 1 March 2002
SUBJECT: Warmest Winter and Four-Month Cold Season in Saint Cloud History
2002 February and 2001-2002 Winter St. Cloud Weather Summary
For the fourth consecutive month, the average temperature from the Saint Cloud Municipal Airport was more than nine and a half degrees above normal. The average February 2002 temperature was 25.2 degrees, nearly 11 degrees above normal. This makes February 2002 the seventh warmest February in the 121 years of Saint Cloud records. Four of the 10 warmest Februaries have occurred in the past 10 years.
The total snowfall for February was 10.3 inches. The most snowfall, 5.0 inches, occurred on February 24, breaking a daily snowfall record. The previous snowfall record was set last year. So, the 2001-2002 seasonal snowfall has reached 28.9 inches, within three and a half inches of normal.
Many records for fewest cold extremes have fallen or are on the verge of falling. During February 2002, there were only 2 days with a low below zero. This ties February 1954 for the fourth fewest number of below zero days in February. Including this morning’s low, which happened on March 1, Saint Cloud has now recorded only 7 days with a low below zero. Therefore, we are on track to break the record for the fewest number of below zero lows in a cold season. The old record is 16, set during the 1997-1998 cold season. Also, the coldest low of the season so far has been –9, set on January 18. In every previous year in Saint Cloud history, the coldest low temperature of the season has been –13 degrees or colder. The winter of 1930-1931 holds the previous record for warmest extreme minimum of the season with that –13 low happening on consecutive days: November 30 and December 1. If we don’t get colder than –13 this weekend, the odds of making it through the winter without a temperature of at least –13 would substantially increase.
The February warmth continued the trend that began four months with Saint Cloud’s warmest November ever. That has been followed by the 13th warmest December on record and the fourth warmest January on record. So, for the meteorological winter (December 1 through the end of February), Saint Cloud had an average temperature of 23.4 degrees, the warmest winter in the 121 years of Saint Cloud weather records. This winter beat the previous record set in 1881-1882 by 0.2 degrees.
In addition, when the record warm November 2001 is added, the four-month average temperature for November 1 through February 28 was 28.0 degrees. This is the warmest four-month average in Saint Cloud history by 2.8 degrees. The old record was during the cold season of 1930-1931 when the average temperature was 25.2 degrees. Note that two other recent years, 1997-1998 (5th) and 1999-2000 (6th), are also in the top ten.
The first question most people ask about these statistics usually is: what does this mean about the weather in the future? To investigate the possibilities, I applied the “analog” forecast method; that is, I looked at the cold seasons that had, before this year, the eleven warmest November-February temperatures.
For March, seven of the previous 11 warmest Nov-Feb years had an average temperature more than 1 degree above normal with four of those years having a temperature more than 3 degrees above normal. Only one of the 11 years had a temperature below normal: March 1932, which was the 11th coldest March on record. A similar trend was found in April with 7 of the 11 years having above normal temperatures. The other four years had an average April temperature within a degree of normal. In May, there was more of a spread. So, it does seem likely that milder than normal conditions will continue for the next two months. For the overall spring, 10 of the 11 years had average temperatures of normal or higher with only one year (1932) having a cold spring. Surprisingly to me, the following meteorological summer (June through August) also showed the same trend. Only one of the eleven years with the previous warmest November-February temperatures had a below average summer temperature. Four summers had a near-normal average temperature and six of the summers were warmer than normal. Two of these following summers, 1931(7th) and 1987(3rd), were among the ten hottest summers on record. So, it appears likely that the upcoming summer will either have normal or above normal temperatures.
The total snowfall for February was 10.3 inches. The most snowfall, 5.0 inches, occurred on February 24, breaking a daily snowfall record. The previous snowfall record was set last year. So, the 2001-2002 seasonal snowfall has reached 28.9 inches, within three and a half inches of normal.
Many records for fewest cold extremes have fallen or are on the verge of falling. During February 2002, there were only 2 days with a low below zero. This ties February 1954 for the fourth fewest number of below zero days in February. Including this morning’s low, which happened on March 1, Saint Cloud has now recorded only 7 days with a low below zero. Therefore, we are on track to break the record for the fewest number of below zero lows in a cold season. The old record is 16, set during the 1997-1998 cold season. Also, the coldest low of the season so far has been –9, set on January 18. In every previous year in Saint Cloud history, the coldest low temperature of the season has been –13 degrees or colder. The winter of 1930-1931 holds the previous record for warmest extreme minimum of the season with that –13 low happening on consecutive days: November 30 and December 1. If we don’t get colder than –13 this weekend, the odds of making it through the winter without a temperature of at least –13 would substantially increase.
The February warmth continued the trend that began four months with Saint Cloud’s warmest November ever. That has been followed by the 13th warmest December on record and the fourth warmest January on record. So, for the meteorological winter (December 1 through the end of February), Saint Cloud had an average temperature of 23.4 degrees, the warmest winter in the 121 years of Saint Cloud weather records. This winter beat the previous record set in 1881-1882 by 0.2 degrees.
In addition, when the record warm November 2001 is added, the four-month average temperature for November 1 through February 28 was 28.0 degrees. This is the warmest four-month average in Saint Cloud history by 2.8 degrees. The old record was during the cold season of 1930-1931 when the average temperature was 25.2 degrees. Note that two other recent years, 1997-1998 (5th) and 1999-2000 (6th), are also in the top ten.
The first question most people ask about these statistics usually is: what does this mean about the weather in the future? To investigate the possibilities, I applied the “analog” forecast method; that is, I looked at the cold seasons that had, before this year, the eleven warmest November-February temperatures.
For March, seven of the previous 11 warmest Nov-Feb years had an average temperature more than 1 degree above normal with four of those years having a temperature more than 3 degrees above normal. Only one of the 11 years had a temperature below normal: March 1932, which was the 11th coldest March on record. A similar trend was found in April with 7 of the 11 years having above normal temperatures. The other four years had an average April temperature within a degree of normal. In May, there was more of a spread. So, it does seem likely that milder than normal conditions will continue for the next two months. For the overall spring, 10 of the 11 years had average temperatures of normal or higher with only one year (1932) having a cold spring. Surprisingly to me, the following meteorological summer (June through August) also showed the same trend. Only one of the eleven years with the previous warmest November-February temperatures had a below average summer temperature. Four summers had a near-normal average temperature and six of the summers were warmer than normal. Two of these following summers, 1931(7th) and 1987(3rd), were among the ten hottest summers on record. So, it appears likely that the upcoming summer will either have normal or above normal temperatures.
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FEBRUARY 2001 STATISTICS FEB 2002 NORMAL
TEMPERATURE (F)
Average High 35.0 24.8
Average Low 15.4 3.8
Average Temp 25.2* 14.3
Warmest high temperature 53 on the 23rd
Coldest high temperature 16 on the 27th
Mildest low temperature 34 on the 18th
Coldest low temperature -5 on the 4th, 27th
*7th warmest February on record (see below)
MELTED PRECIP (in) 1.29 0.63
Most in 24 hours 0.47 in on the 19th
SNOWFALL (in) 10.3 7.0
Most in 24 hours 5.0 on the 24th (set record; see below)
Seasonal Snowfall (Oct-Feb) 28.9 33.3
Daily record snowfall: 5.0 in on the 24th (old record: 4.8 in 2001)
WINTER (DEC-FEB) STATISTICS WINTER NORMAL
2001-2002
Average High Temp (oF) 32.2 22.5Average Low Temp (oF) 14.6 3.6
Average Temperature (oF) 23.4** 13.1
Total Melted Precip(in) 2.34 2.18
Snowfall (in) 16.6 26.0
**Warmest winter in Saint Cloud history (see below)
ST. CLOUD SNOWFALL(IN)
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY TOTAL
1999-2000 0.0 1.1 4.5 10.8 8.4 T 3.3 0.0 28.1
2000-2001 0.0 10.6 16.2 5.4 17.8 6.6 T 0.0 56.6
2001-2002 0.5 11.8 2.8 3.5 10.3 28.9
NORMAL 0.5 6.8 8.9 10.1 7.0 9.8 2.3 0.1 45.5
ST. CLOUD TEMPS--FEBRUARY (122 YEARS; AVG = 14.0 F)
WARMEST COLDEST
29.6 F 1998 -4.4 F 1936
28.9 F 1987 3.7 F 1904
27.2 F 1954 4.3 F 1887
27.0 F 1931 4.3 F 1917
26.4 F 1882 4.6 F 1989
25.7 F 1984 4.9 F 1885
25.2 F 2002 5.1 F 1979
25.0 F 1999 5.4 F 1967
24.6 F 1992 5.6 F 1899
24.2 F 1915 5.6 F 1923
ST. CLOUD TEMPS--FEWEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF 0 DEG OR LOWER
FEBRUARY (AVG = 12.3) COLD SEASON (AVG = 43)
0 1987 7 2001-2002
0 1998 16 1997-1998
1 1999 17 1986-1987
2 1954 22 1918-1919
2 2002 22 1941-1942
3 1926 29 1908-1909
3 1935 29 1990-1991
4 1930 29 1998-1999
4 1938 30 1931-1932
4 1984 30 1982-1983
4 1992 31 1937-1938
5 (5 YEARS) 31 1943-1944
31 1957-1958
ST. CLOUD TEMPS--WINTER (121 YEARS; AVG = 13.1 F)
WARMEST COLDEST
23.4 F 2001-2002 1.4 F 1935-1936
23.2 F 1881-1882 1.7 F 1886-1887
23.0 F 1997-1998 3.9 F 1978-1979
22.7 F 1930-1931 4.2 F 1884-1885
22.2 F 1986-1987 5.5 F 1887-1888
21.5 F 1920-1921 6.2 F 1916-1917
20.0 F 1918-1919 7.7 F 1981-1982
19.9 F 1982-1983 7.8 F 1977-1978
19.3 F 1943-1944 7.9 F 1917-1918
19.3 F 1989-1990 7.9 F 1964-1965
SAINT CLOUD AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (NOV 1 THROUGH FEB 28/29)
WARMEST ON RECORD (1881-2002)
28.0 2001-2002
25.2 1930-1931
24.6 1881-1882
23.8 1918-1919
23.7 1997-1998
23.3 1999-2000
23.10 1931-1932
23.08 1986-1987
22.98 1913-1914
22.95 1920-1921
22.93 1907-1908
Historic temperature data provided courtesy of the Saint Cloud National Weather Service Office, and NOAA/NWS
Send comments to: raweisman@stcloudstate.edu