Perpetual March-April Weather Lasts Entire Meteorological Winter

February 2024 and Winter 2023-2024 Saint Cloud, MN, Weather Summary

Note: This is a summary of meteorological winter, which is defined as the three coldest months of the year (1 December through 29 February). Astronomical winter ends on the spring equinox, which will be on March 19 this year. That's the day when we get back to 12 hours of daylight. Also, note that the cold season can be used to refer to the part of the year when Minnesota can get snow (typically Oct-Apr, but can be longer) or the heating season (July 1-June 30). No, the groundhog doesn't work in Minnesota.

The State Climatology Office in the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources is calling this season the lost winter of 2023-2024. Temperatures have been more frequently like early spring or late fall than the teeth of winter and there has been a major lack of snow. All of these extremes came close to or set records in Minnesota.

Mildest February Finishes Mildest Winter in a Runaway

The St. Cloud Regional Airport had its mildest February on record, with an average temperature of 30.4 degrees, 14.3 degrees above the average. The average high was 40.6, the mildest February average high on record, and the average low was 20.2 degrees, in 2nd place to 1998's 23.2 degrees). Only two days had a colder than average temperature, making it only 12 of the 91 days of meteorological winter. The only low of zero or colder was the zero set on February 28. That makes only 10 days with a low of zero or colder. If that holds through March, it would tie 2001-2002 for the fewest number of sub-zero days. The coldest low seen all winter was the -13 degrees on January 20. If that held up through the entire winter, 2023-2024 would be only the second season never getting colder than -13. The other one was also 2001-2002. The -13 as the coldest low would need to hold up through about late March, when lows colder than -13 become very rare. Basically, St. Cloud had those 2 days in February and 10 days in January of true winter temperatures.

The very mild February helped the winter of 2023-2024 easily become St. Cloud's mildest meteorological winter. The average December through February temperature was 27.3 degrees, more than 14 degrees above average. That mild winter temperature beat the previous record (2001-2002) by almost 4 degrees.

Mild Temperatures a Symptom of the Recent Warm Global Temperatures and El Nino

The generally milder than average temperatures were expected due to presence of El Nino, the unusually warm ocean current in the Tropical Pacific. That is associated with milder than average winters in the Northern Plains and south central Canada. However, setting a record for warmth means that circulation had to be lined up with unusually warm ocean temperatures nearly worldwide going into this winter. That is supported by the continued trend of top 10 global temperatures seen in recent years. 2023 is likely to be the warmest year in the history of temperature readings when the statistics become final.

The warmth produced more temperature records, most notably on February 26, when some parts of Minnesota reached well into the 60's and even approached 70 (see Feb 26 Record Heat). St. Cloud got to 58 degrees, the 4th record warm temperature of the month. That ran the winter total to 22 warm temperature records (10 broken or tied in December, 8 in January). Instead of running up below zero days, St. Cloud set records for the most days with a high of at least 40 degrees (38 days) and 45 degrees (20 days). The 8 winter days with a high of 50 degrees or milder finished second to 1939-1940 (9 days).

Potential for Second Least Snowy Cold Season, If We Get Little or No More Snow

The most noticeable part of this "winter" has been the lack of snow. St. Cloud State University did pick up 4.5 inches of snow, 4.4 inches of it on February 14 (see Valentine's Day Snow from Minnesota Department of Natural Resources). That kept the winter snowfall to 11.0 inches, the 10th lowest winter total in St. Cloud records. For the entire season, St. Cloud has only 13.6 inches of snow. If we went snowless through March and April, that would rank second to 1920-1921 as the least snowy cold season. This provides an extreme contrast to last season, which had the 3rd most snowfall through February, and ended being St. Cloud's snowiest season on record. There is a wilder swing of year-to-year snow seasons in that table. 1966-1967 (53.6 inches, 7th tie) and 1968-1969 (60.8 inches, 2nd) were heavy snow years through February, but they were separated by 1967-1968 with only 15.5 inches (5th lowest). And, even in an El Nino year, we have March and April to go. Note that 1964-1965, the previous complete season record before last year, picked up the bulk of it, 51.7 inches, in March.

Abnormally Wet and Abnormally Effective at Recharging Ground Water

Still, this particular winter continued the trend of being much wetter than average. 0.99 inch fell at the St. Cloud Airport, 0.40 inch above the average. However, the entire measurable precipitation amount fell in two days; 0.74 inch on February 8 and 0.25 inch, locked up in 4.4 inches of snow, on February 14. This ran the winter season precipitation to 4.53 inches, the 5th highest winter total in St. Cloud records. Both this winter, featuring little snow, and last winter, featuring a season snowfall record, placed among the 5 wettest winters in St. Cloud records. With this season's mild conditions, much of that precipitation in the wettest December on record was able to seep into the ground during a time when frozen ground usually keeps the ground water from recharging. There was some shallow frost in the ground during the two precipitation events this February, but some of it managed to seep in. So, Minnesota has gotten some unusual winter relief from this precipitation.

Only 3rd St. Cloud Cold Season Among Both Warmest, Brownest

The combination of extreme warmth and extreme brown ground is a rare one in Central Minnesota. I prepared the following table, including the 10 warmest winters on record and the 10 least snowy seasons on record. Most years with high snow amounts were not that mild and most mild years were not that snowless. Only 1920-1921, 8th mildest and least snowy, and 1986-1987 (7th mildest, 4th lowest snow total) have both statistics in the top 10. Of course, this year is on track to be the only one ranked in the Top 5 for both statistics.

Is It Over? Little Chance for Prolonged Cold, but....

All of the statistics involving low frequency of cold extremes and low snow totals still have to survive March (and sometimes April). The El Nino circulation is weakening (its strongest correlation is to mild Dec-Feb, not necessarily the spring months), and there is currently very cold air from northwestern Canada into northern Alaska. Eventually, the circulation will have to bring that cold air somewhere southward to get rid of it. Some surges of the cold air have also missed Minnesota by a few hundred miles, so records like fewest sub-zero temperatures and mildest extreme low could still fall if we get a brief shot of that cold air. And, even in a mild pattern, one major snowstorm, even similar to the Valentine's Day storm, could push St. Cloud's snow total to the lower half of the 10 least snowy seasons or even out of the top 10 with a direct hit.

However, you can already plan on annoying your current or future grandchildren about the winter that didn't happen, at least temperature-wise. Those numbers stop counting after February, so they are in the books.

February 2024 Statistics

St. Cloud Mildest Extreme Low of the Cold Season