November 2014 Saint Cloud Weather Summary

The November 10-11 snowstorm ranked as the 13th largest snowstorm in St. Cloud records (13.5 inches) and produced the 6th highest 24-hour snowfall (13.2 inches) and the highest November 24-hour snowfall records (Old record: 12.0 inches on November 21, 1898). However, the snowpack also assisted a persistent cold weather pattern to produce the 9th coldest November in St. Cloud records (22.9°F,7.5°F colder than average).

The deep snowpack causes a good chunk of the sun's energy to be reflected back to space, so it has a chilling effect. Add in a persistent flow pattern that had air from the Arctic Circle drain into most of the Canada and the US east of the Rockies and several cold records were established. There were 4 daily record cold temperatures tied or broken in November. The 5 days with a low of zero or colder was the highest November total since 1991. To compare, there were only 6 combined November days with a low that cold between 1998 and 2013.

There were 12 days that were at least 10 degrees colder than the daily average, including 10 of the 11 days during November 11-21. The high temperature was colder than freezing each day between November 10 and November 21. The 12 straight days below freezing was tied with November 1985 for the 4th longest November streak on record.

The big November snowfall accounted for most of the 17.6 inches of snow, 8.7 inches above the average, and the 8th snowiest November on record and the snowiest November since 1991, which had the Halloween blizzard. The November 10-11 snowfall accounted for the largest November snowfall since Nov. 28-Dec. 1, 1985 (16.8 inches). The 9 November days with measurable snowfall was the most in November since 1996.

The amount of liquid in the November 10-11 snowfall also produced a total of 1.24 inch, setting a daily record for precipitation. The 1.25 inch that fell on November 10-11 was as much as the total rainfall in St. Cloud between October 10 and November 9.

The 1.89 inch of liquid in St. Cloud reversed the trend of the previous two months and pushed the 2014 total precipitation to 35.97 inches. That is already the 6th wettest year and the wettest year since 1983. And, there's still a month to go. The 10 days with at least an inch of liquid in 2014 is tied for 7th most in a year and the most since 1971.

The end of November also marked the end of meteorological fall (September 1-November 30) in St. Cloud. Overall, the average temperature fell to 44.1°F, 0.8°F colder than average. The cold November balanced out the warm September and October.

The number one question is whether this cold and snowy November will lead to a cold and snowy winter. In the short-term, the temperatures are likely to continue to be colder than average through much of this week. However, the longer range forecast has a lot to do with the development of El Nino, an abnormally warm ocean current in the tropical Pacific. The sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have been running warmer than average over the past couple of months. But they will have to rise further to develop a true El Nino situation. The reason for the focus on El Nino is that the Northern Plains tend to have warmer than average winters during an El Nino. Also, the southern US tends to be wetter than average during an El Nino.

From a climatological perspective, St. Cloud is now coming off two seasons with more than 75 inches of snow, which rank 4th (2012-2013) and 5th (tie; 2013-2014). This marked the first time that St. Cloud had maintained such heavy snowfall for two straight seasons. The average season-to-season drop in snowfall among following the ten snowiest years is nearly 30 inches. Only last season's snowfall stayed within 3 inches of the previous year. So, the odds favor less snowfall, but that's not a promise.

However, if the snow cover put down on November 10 ends up lasting through the bulk of the winter, we might have a chance at one of the longest streaks on record. The 9 longest streaks (each at least 130 straight days) all began in November. It would only take 3-4 days above freezing to melt what we have, if we don't add any more, but a prolonged snow cover will make this winter seem very long.

#9th snowiest fall