November 2022 Saint Cloud Weather Summary

What would you think that November would have averaged, given this temperature graph (courtesy MesoWest)? There were major warm periods early in the month, similar to average Labor Day weather, a September relapse on the 9th, then a prolonged colder period with temperatures approach January levels on the 19th and 20th and late in the month. Well, that overall average temperature ended up at 31.8 degrees, 0.8 degrees above average.

The wild swings in temperature were caused by wild swings of main belt of steering winds. Some of the month involved two separate storm tracks, one in southern Canada and one often from the Pacific Northwest into the South Central states then through the east. The milder periods had this pattern, since the cold air was blocked in Canada and the moisture was shunted off by the southern track. That period included a November 2 high of 75 degrees, which was one degree off the high temperature for the entire month of November (76 degrees, set on November 6, 2020). At other times, there was a storm that linked the two storm tracks. That was the case in the middle of the month, which produced more than average precipitation in much of eastern and northeastern Minnesota. And, other times, the northwest-to-southeast flow from north central Canada dominated.

That 75 degree high is likely the last 70-degree high of the season. The average date for the last 70 high is mid-October, but two of the past 6 years have had a November 70 degree high (November 5, 2016; November 8, 2020).

The near average November temperature resulted in a Fall (1 September-30 November) average of 47.4 degrees, 2.0 degrees above average. Of the 134 years on record, this fall ranks as the 30th warmest.

The heavy precipitation storm in the middle of the month ended up producing well above average precipitation in the middle of the month. The St. Cloud Municipal Airport picked up 2.11 inches, making it the 24th wettest of the 130 Novembers on record. 1.64 inches of that fell on November 8-10, more than the average for the entire month (1.37 inch). There was also wind and severe weather from this storm, as well as ice changing to snow in northwestern Minnesota.

On the other hand, a series of fast moving storms in colder air from November 14 through 18 squeezed out a total of 4.4 inches in 5 days. Other places got some more snow, but no one made out like northeastern Minnesota. There the persistent southeast winds coming off Lake Superior during the series of storms, plus the extra lift as those winds climbed the North Shore hills just inland on November 14-18, dumped more than a foot of snow with over 30 inches near Hovland. There was more precipitation over parts of the Twin Cities, which was hit by a narrow band of snow late in the month.

So, St. Cloud was on the southwest fringe of the heaviest November precipitation, posting the above average precipitation (see NWS Minnesota November precipitation map). Still, much of Minnesota remains below average on precipitation (see Minnesota Dept. of Natural Resources precipitation seasonal departure map, center). Even with the late November snowfall in the eastern half of the driest area, there is much more precipitation needed to make up the large deficits (see US Drought Monitor). And, with colder weather coming frequently, we are close to having frost going into the ground. Frost has already developed at Ottertail and Cass Lake. That means future precipitation may eventually help river and lake levels, but not ground water levels.

St. Cloud is still on track to end up considerably above average on annual precipitation with 30.53 inches, 3.62 inches above average. In fall (1 September-30 November) precipitation, St. Cloud has picked up 4.65 inches, 2.34 inches below average.

The 5.0 inches of snow in November was a bit below the 6.9 inch average.

With the turn to December, what does meteorological (December 1-February 28) mean? While we don't know how warm or cold we will be (the long-range forecasts are going for colder than average, but I don't believe in those very much), the characteristic of a central Minnesota winter that stays with me is the nearly three months (median: 86 consecutive days) during which St. Cloud has at least an inch of snow cover. Last year, it was a bit higher (92 days between December 17 and March 19), despite our lack of a major snowstorm (haven't seen at least 5 inches in one storm since November 10, 2020) despite snowfall within a couple of inches of average during the past two seasons. We average 42 days a season with a low temperature of zero or colder (52 last season, but less than 30 the previous two seasons).