October 2016 Saint Cloud Weather Summary

Saint Cloud October 2016 Weather Summary  

For the seventh time in the 10 months of 2016, the St. Cloud average temperature was above normal by at least a degree. According to the statistics from the St. Cloud Regional Airport, the average St. Cloud temperature was 48.9°F, 3.2°F above average. This ranked in the warmest third of Octobers in St. Cloud records. Only April, May, and July has failed to exceed average significantly. This puts St. Cloud warm enough to be on pace for a top 10 warmest calendar year. If November and December each end up being merely average, the 2016 St. Cloud average temperature would be 45.0°F, mild enough to tie 1938 and 2005 for 9th place and ranking only 0.1°F behind 2015.

However, October's warmth wasn't quite as pleasant as during the earlier months. The cause of most of the warmth were extremely warm nights (low temperatures averaged 39.6°F, 5.3 degrees warmer than normal) as the average low ranked 20th warmest. The persistent clouds during a good chunk of the month helped to keep temperatures up. An example of this happened on Sunday, October 30. The daily high temperature was only 43 degrees, below average for the end of October, but the persistent clouds and wind kept the low temperatures to 40 degrees, more than 15 degrees above average.

Cause of Warmth? Warm Winter and Fall

The warmth so far in 2016 has been mainly on the strength of the mild end of winter and the fall. The summer was merely a degree warmer than average. If this year places in the top 10, it will be the sixth year out of the 11 warmest that has occurred since 1997, most of those years based on the strength of how warm the cool season was.

Rain Slows A Bit...But On Pace for Near Record Number of Rainy Days

The other trend of 2016 has been the heavy rainfall since the middle of summer. That rate of rain tapered a bit in October. The St. Cloud Airport picked up 2.68 inches, a shade above the October average of 2.49 inches. This pushes the 2016 precipitation total to 30.58 inches, more than 5 inches above the 25.53 inch average. However, this year is running slight behind last year and well behind 2014, which ended up being the fourth wettest year in St. Cloud records.

However, October rainfall was much heavier from northern Stearns County into Alexandria and the Lake Traverse and Lac qui Parle area. Some regions saw 5-6 inches of rain there. Much heavier rain also dominated from the Twin Cities into south central and southeastern Minnesota.

The frequency of precipitation is what has stood out in St. Cloud during 2016. October was the 8th straight month with at least 10 days of measurable precipitation. For the first 10 months of the year, there have been 115 days with at least 0.01 inch of precipitation.So, there has been enough rain to make puddles on more than one third of the days (nearly 38 percent). Four more days with measurable precipitation will push that number into the top 15 years. The record is 137 days, set in both 1951 and 1977.

There have also been 38 days with at least a quarter inch of precipitation. It would take only 4 more days in the last two months to break into the top 10. However, the average for the last two months is a little more than 2 days, so we would have to continue the wet trend into the end of the year to make it

NWS Says Cold Winter, But It Won't Begin That Way

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center has put out a November through February forecast of colder than average temperatures for Minnesota and the Northern Plains. This is mostly based on the La Nina event going on in the Tropical Pacific. However, these forecasts are only at most 25 percent more accurate than rolling a 3 sided die with above average, average, and below average on it.

I don't get into the long-range forecast business at all, but the first week of November will rival the warmest parts of October, if we can get enough sunshine.

     October 2016 Statistics